SI.com's 2016–17 college basketball season preview
Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1–351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer. This model has produced the most accurate college basketball projections for the past two seasons. Visit this page for daily updates until the season begins on Nov. 11.
Team Projections
. Ranking every team in D-I, 351–1
Josh Hart and Grayson Allen have each won national titles. They're each projected as leading scorers on top-10 teams this season. And they're SI's preseason player of the year frontrunners.
Player projections
. Player of the Year
Josh Hart and Grayson Allen have each won national titles. They're each projected as leading scorers on top-10 teams this season. And they're SI's preseason player of the year frontrunners.
. Preseason All-Americas
A trio of West Coast stars, led by Cal's Ivan Rabb—a projected double-double machine—headline our first team.
. Top freshmen scorers
Markelle Fultz may not be on an NCAA tournament team, but he'll have plenty of scoring opportunities this season. Plus, two Duke freshmen land in the top 15.
. Top breakout scorers
Which teams will rely most heavily on breakout scorers? We begin with Oklahoma, which begins the post-Buddy Hield era.
. Top scoring transfers
For many teams, transfers represent experienced D-I players who can plug in gaps on rosters right away. Which transfers will have the biggest impacts this season?
Conference previews
. ACC
Grayson Allen, our projected conference and national player of the year, leads a Duke team capable of winning it all. But North Carolina and Virginia are close behind.
. A-10
VCU is once again projected to battle for the A-10 title, but resurgent Rhode Island could present a formidable challenge.
. American
After sliding to sixth in the regular season in 2015–16, the UConn Huskies are our projected as the top team in the American this winter.
. Big East
The Wildcats have their sights set not only on another Big East crown, but also on a repeat national championship. Can Xavier or Creighton slow them down in league play?
. Big Ten
Wisconsin returns 99% of its minutes from the team that made the Sweet 16 a season ago, but Purdue and Indiana will provide a significant challenge.
. Big 12
Bill Self and Kansas are seeking to tie John Wooden's UCLA record with 13 straight conference titles. Which Big 12 teams can get in the way?
. Pac-12
Oregon and Arizona—assuming their stars are healthy and eligible—appear to be the two of the top West Coast teams again this year.
. SEC
Malik Monk—our projected freshman and player of the year in the SEC—should lead Kentucky comfortably to a conference crown this season.
. Mid-major contenders
Gonzaga may have lost its most well-known players, but key transfers and returners make the Bulldogs the best national title threat outside the major conferences.
