Tuesday October 18th, 2016

Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs that produces our 1-351 team rankings, conference predictions and player statistical forecasts. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer.

We simulated the season 10,000 times and generated median stats for every player in the top eight conferences (AAC, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) as well as our other forecasted at-large bid candidates (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State and Princeton). Today we’re unveiling our projected top 100 scorers, according to raw points per game, from that set of teams. See every article in our college basketball preview here

A key to the charts: Proj. PPG = projected raw points per game in 2016-17. ORtg = projected offensive rating, or points per 100 possessions. Volume = projected percentage of team possessions used while on the floor. Mins = projected percentage of minutes played.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
1 Jack Gibbs Davidson PG Sr 23.6 112.2 34% 87% 23.4
2 Peter Jok Iowa SG Sr 21.4 113.8 26% 90% 16.1
3 Grayson Allen Duke PG/SG Jr 20.1 128.7 25% 85% 21.6
4 Jordan Price La Salle SG Sr 19.6 102.8 30% 91% 19.2
5 T.J. Cline Richmond PF Sr 19.6 116.6 29% 80% 18.4

Davidson senior shooting guard (and Settlers of Catan gamer) Jack Gibbs is a safe bet to lead the multi-bid conferences in scoring. He was fourth last year, behind only Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, Mississippi’s Stefan Moody and NC State’s Cat Barber, all of whom have moved on to the pros. Gibbs scored 40 or more points three times as a junior, and although we don’t see his scoring average hitting Stephen Curry range—Steph put up 28.6 as a Davidson junior—a 23.6-per-game projection is more than respectable.

College Basketball
Washington's Markelle Fultz, Duke's Jayson Tatum lead top projected freshmen scorers

Iowa’s Peter Jok (No. 2), who’s likely to take on a huge scoring load now that Jarrod Uthoff is in the NBA, is the only major-conference player SI projects to finish ahead of its No. 1 Naismith-and-Wooden award candidate, Duke’s Grayson Allen, in the national scoring race.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
6 Jaron Blossomgame Clemson PF Sr 18.9 120.0 25% 85% 18.7
7 Malcolm Hill Illinois SG Sr 18.7 114.2 28% 86% 18.1
8 Rob Gray Houston SG Jr 18.6 116.1 27% 76% 16.0
9 Ivan Rabb California PF So 18.3 119.7 26% 83% 12.5
10 Markelle Fultz Washington PG/SG Fr 18.2 114.6 27% 81%  

Look for Washington’s Markelle Fultz (No. 10), a potential first-overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, to lead the nation’s freshmen in scoring. SI projects him at 18.2 points per game, the highest of anyone in the Pac-12, where his main competition should be Cal power forward Ivan Rabb (No. 9), a fellow NBA prospect who should make the leap from freshman role player to sophomore star.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
11 Kelan Martin Butler PF Jr 18.1 114.0 26% 81% 15.7
12 Nick Emery BYU PG So 17.9 119.3 22% 85% 16.3
13 James Blackmon, Jr. Indiana SG Jr 17.6 124.6 26% 70% 15.8
14 Jaylen Adams St. Bonaventure PG Jr 17.6 121.8 23% 94% 17.9
15 Donte Clark Massachusetts SG Jr 17.5 106.9 26% 82% 16.2
16 Allonzo Trier Arizona SG So 17.3 116.6 23% 80% 14.8
17 Mike Young Pittsburgh PF Sr 17.3 119.3 26% 76% 15.7
18 Stevie Thompson Oregon St. SG So 17.3 110.9 24% 86% 10.6
19 Dillon Brooks Oregon SF Jr 17.2 117.0 26% 82% 16.7
20 Trevon Bluiett Xavier SF Jr 16.9 121.6 22% 85% 15.1

Kelan Martin (No. 11), a 6' 6" hybrid forward who had Butler’s second-highest number of three-point makes last season, projects to become the team’s leading scorer now that Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones are gone. Martin showed flashes of big-time scoring ability as a sophomore—he had 27 and 35 points in back-to-back games against Marquette and Georgetown—and SI projects him to lead the Big East in scoring as a junior. Sophomore guard Nick Emery (No. 12) is similarly poised to take over the scoring lead at BYU in its first year without Kyle Collinsworth and Chase Fischer.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
21 Jayson Tatum Duke SF Fr 16.8 117.7 25% 79%  
22 Melo Trimble Maryland PG Jr 16.7 113.6 29% 82% 14.8
23 Tyler Cavanaugh George Washington PF Sr 16.7 113.8 25% 79% 16.8
24 J.J. Frazier Georgia PG Sr 16.6 117.0 25% 82% 16.9
25 Dusty Hannahs Arkansas SG Sr 16.5 118.3 24% 68% 16.5
26 Isaac Hamilton UCLA SG Sr 16.5 115.4 22% 85% 16.8
27 Emile Blackman Duquesne SG Sr 16.5 104.0 23% 88% 15.8
28 Moses Kingsley Arkansas PF Sr 16.4 115.2 26% 74% 15.9
29 Rodney Purvis Connecticut SG Sr 16.3 109.5 24% 86% 12.8
30 Jahmal McMurray South Florida PG So 16.3 98.2 25% 93% 15.2
31 B.J. Tyson East Carolina PG/SG Jr 16.3 104.6 25% 86% 14.6
32 Corey Sanders Rutgers PG So 16.2 103.2 27% 87% 15.9
33 Khadeen Carrington Seton Hall PG Jr 16.2 107.2 24% 85% 14.1
34 Yante Maten Georgia PF/C Jr 16.2 106.0 27% 76% 16.5
35 Jawun Evans Oklahoma St. PG So 16.2 112.9 26% 85% 12.9
36 Dedric Lawson Memphis PF So 16.1 105.5 28% 82% 15.8
37 Jabari Bird California SG Sr 16.1 118.8 22% 79% 10.4
38 Peyton Aldridge Davidson PF Jr 16.0 122.9 21% 87% 15.5
39 V.J. Beachem Notre Dame SF Sr 16.0 121.4 20% 83% 12.0
40 Josh Hart Villanova SG/SF Sr 16.0 124.2 23% 79% 15.5

Georgia should have one of the nation’s best scoring duos in guard J.J. Frazier (No. 24) and center Yante Maten (No. 34), but not enough of a supporting cast to project as an NCAA tournament team. Likewise for Oklahoma State, whose starting backcourt of Jawun Evans (No. 35) and Phil Forte III (No. 42) is projected to combine for 32.0 points, but their team projects to finish in the lower half of the Big 12.

Mitchell Layton/Getty

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
41 Malik Monk Kentucky SG Fr 16.0 117.1 25% 77%  
42 Zach LeDay Virginia Tech PF Sr 15.9 119.5 24% 78% 15.5
43 Phil Forte III Oklahoma St. SG Sr 15.9 120.8 21% 80% 13.3
44 Tres Tinkle Oregon St. SF So 15.9 114.0 23% 83% 13.1
45 Dwayne Bacon Florida St. SF So 15.9 106.8 27% 72% 15.8
46 Jamel Artis Pittsburgh PG Sr 15.9 110.8 24% 82% 14.4
47 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin PF Sr 15.9 113.3 27% 85% 15.7
48 Jordan McLaughlin USC PG Jr 15.8 115.2 23% 88% 13.4
49 Josh Jackson Kansas SF Fr 15.7 119.0 23% 79%  
50 Maurice Watson Jr. Creighton PG Sr 15.6 112.6 27% 85% 14.1
51 Bryant Crawford Wake Forest PG So 15.6 101.9 26% 85% 13.8
52 Jordan Woodard Oklahoma PG Sr 15.5 115.8 23% 85% 13.0
53 Monte Morris Iowa St. PG Sr 15.5 121.4 24% 90% 13.8
54 Dennis Smith Jr. North Carolina St. PG Fr 15.4 120.1 22% 87%  
55 Charles Cooke Dayton SG Sr 15.4 110.9 24% 79% 15.6
56 Josh Hawkinson Washington St. PF Sr 15.4 114.5 22% 82% 15.4
57 ShawnDre' Jones Richmond PG Sr 15.3 116.1 22% 87% 14.7
58 E.C. Matthews Rhode Island SG Sr 15.3 109.2 24% 79% 0.0
59 Obi Enechionyia Temple PF Jr 15.3 111.8 24% 74% 11.0
60 Mike Crawford Saint Louis SG Sr 15.2 105.8 21% 87% 10.3

This tier is heavy on veteran go-to-guys. Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes (No. 46) is a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate if he bounces back from a junior season in which he struggled as a long-range shooter. Creighton’s Maurice Watson Jr. (No. 50) is a Big East Player of the Year candidate if the Bluejays can stick in the top 25 and his prime competition falls under their projections. Rhode Island’s E.C. Matthews (No. 58), who tore his ACL in the Rams’ season opener last year and missed the rest of the season, is back and should push the Rams into the NCAA tournament.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
61 Ja'Quan Newton Miami FL PG Jr 15.0 109.3 27% 79% 10.5
62 Nate Mason Minnesota PG Jr 15.0 109.7 24% 85% 13.8
63 Bryant McIntosh Northwestern PG Jr 15.0 111.3 26% 89% 13.8
64 Damyean Dotson Houston SF Sr 14.9 127.1 20% 80% 13.9
65 Marc Loving Ohio St. PF Sr 14.9 113.8 21% 84% 14.0
66 Henry Caruso Princeton F Sr 14.9 120.3 24% 70% 15.0
67 Antonio Blakeney LSU SG So 14.8 115.4 21% 76% 12.6
68 Pat Birt Tulsa SG Sr 14.8 107.0 23% 76% 12.0
69 Rodney Bullock Providence PF Jr 14.7 99.3 25% 81% 11.4
70 Bryce Alford UCLA PG/SG Sr 14.7 116.5 22% 80% 16.1
71 Shep Garner Penn St. PG Jr 14.7 108.8 24% 84% 14.8
72 Desi Rodriguez Seton Hall SF Jr 14.7 110.5 23% 75% 12.4
73 George King Colorado SG/SF Jr 14.7 109.3 24% 70% 13.6
74 Kris Jenkins Villanova SF/PF Sr 14.6 124.3 21% 75% 13.6
75 Kyle Kuzma Utah PF Jr 14.6 107.6 25% 78% 10.8
76 Billy Garrett Jr. DePaul PG Sr 14.5 108.2 27% 76% 12.6
77 Jermaine Bishop Saint Louis PG So 14.3 99.5 25% 79% 8.9
78 Tra Holder Arizona St. PG Jr 14.3 104.7 25% 79% 14.2
79 Tyler Davis Texas A&M C So 14.3 114.4 24% 70% 11.3
80 Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina PG/SG Sr 14.3 111.3 22% 84% 13.4

This is the next-man-up tier: With Ben Simmons no longer dominating LSU’s offense, sophomore Antonio Blakeney (No. 67) is its likely new scoring leader. After two years as a role player supporting future first-round NBA draft picks, Kyle Kuzma (No. 71) is ready to be Utah’s lead guy in a balanced offense. It’s Rodney Bullock’s (No. 69) turn to do the same at Providence, with Kris Dunn having moved on to the Timberwolves and Ben Bentil to the Celtics.

Rank Player Team Pos. Year Proj. PPG ORtg Volume Mins '15-16 PPG
81 Jalen Brunson Villanova PG So 14.2 115.0 22% 82% 9.6
82 Marcus Foster Creighton SG Jr 14.2 111.3 23% 71%  
83 Zak Irvin Michigan SF Sr 14.1 110.9 23% 85% 11.8
84 Bonzie Colson, Jr. Notre Dame PF Jr 14.1 123.8 25% 68% 11.1
85 James Demery Saint Joseph's SF Jr 14.1 106.6 21% 86% 8.1
86 Conner Frankamp Wichita St. PG Jr 14.0 123.9 18% 85% 6.1
87 Matt Mobley St. Bonaventure SG Jr 14.0 107.3 23% 75%  
88 Frank Mason Kansas PG Sr 14.0 120.1 21% 86% 12.9
89 Justin Jackson North Carolina SF Jr 13.9 125.1 22% 74% 12.2
90 Lorenzo Bonam Utah PG/SG Sr 13.9 115.1 21% 86% 10.2
91 Troy Caupain Cincinnati PG Sr 13.9 112.9 22% 86% 13.0
92 Tyler Lydon Syracuse PF So 13.9 112.6 23% 77% 10.1
93 Jared Terrell Rhode Island PG/SG Jr 13.9 109.2 22% 85% 13.6
94 Steve Vasturia Notre Dame SG Sr 13.9 114.2 21% 90% 11.4
95 Seth Allen Virginia Tech CG Sr 13.9 106.1 28% 63% 14.7
96 Austin Nichols Virginia SF Jr 13.8 107.7 25% 71%  
97 Andrew White III Syracuse SF Sr 13.8 111.5 23% 71% 16.6
98 Trey Kell San Diego St. SG/PG Jr 13.8 109.8 23% 74% 12.6
99 Kerwin Roach, Jr. Texas PG So 13.8 106.6 24% 77% 7.5
100 Lonzo Ball UCLA PG Fr 13.8 116.9 22% 77%  

Here come the key transfers: Creighton’s Marcus Foster (No. 82) averaged 15.5 points as a Kansas State freshman in 2013–14 and is ready to get his career back on track in Omaha. Andrew White III (No. 97) left Nebraska and graduate-transferred into a situation at Syracuse where he could very well be the leading scorer. Former Memphis power forward Austin Nichols (No. 96) projects to lead a balanced Virginia team in points, as does former Kansas guard Conner Frankamp (No. 86) at Wichita State.

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