NHL Best Bets: Sabres Should Slice Up Senators

The Sabres are currently out of the playoff picture, but Buffalo has done a great job defending its home ice all season long.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Although the NHL returned from its All-Star break last night with just a six-game slate, only two games are on the schedule tonight. Some teams are just getting an extra day or two of rest, while others are finishing up their bye week that began a few days before the break. The All-Star host Blues don’t get to take advantage of any rest, as they face the Flames in Calgary tonight after playing the Canucks in Vancouver on Monday. Also on tap is an Atlantic Division matchup between the Senators and Sabres.

Let’s take a closer look at how you should bet the two games on the NHL schedule tonight:

Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres: Sabres (-180)

Although neither of these teams is likely to contend for a playoff spot, there is a significant advantage for one of these squads in this matchup. That team is the Sabres.

Buffalo has the seventh-best home record in the NHL at 14-6-3. That stat is pretty remarkable since the Sabres only have the 23rd-best overall record in the league (22-20-7) and are 10 points out of a playoff spot. Buffalo scores the ninth-most goals and allows the 13th-fewest goals at home.

Conversely, the Senators are a dreadful road team. They have the second-worst road record in the NHL at 5-15-4, score the fifth-fewest goals per game and allow the third-most goals per game away from home. Oh, and they are playing their second game in as many nights after losing 4-3 to the Devils in a shootout on Monday.

Ottawa hasn’t won a road game since December 4 and are 1-8-3 in their last dozen away from the Canadian Tire Centre. I don’t see them improving that record tonight in Buffalo. We’ve made some money this season riding with the Sabres at home, so let’s go back to the well once more.

St. Louis Blues vs. Calgary Flames: Under 5.5 goals (-110)

As mentioned above, the Blues are playing for the second consecutive night as they tour through western Canada. However, while both goalies on its roster are playing well this season, St. Louis is saving its All-Star for this matchup.

Jordan Binnington made 40 saves and blanked the Flames back on Nov. 21 in a 5-0 victory at home. He also allowed just two goals on 29 shots in a 3-2 overtime victory in Calgary on November 9. Those are his only two career starts against the Flames.

Speaking of Calgary, they went into the break struggling to find consistency on offense. The Flames scored two or fewer goals in five of their last six games. Dating back to Dec. 23, Calgary is averaging just 2.58 goals per game, which is nearly identical to their season average of 2.60 goals per game that ranks 25th in the NHL.

Given the Flames’ recent offensive struggles, Binnington’s success against them and the fact that the Blues’ offense could be hindered by fatigue, betting the under is the way to go here. Plus, the under cashed in the prior two meetings this season. Let’s go three for three.

Season Record: 26-23-1 (+1.16 units)