College Basketball Best Bets: You Won't Ache If You Back Wake

College basketball experts Three Man Weave are back with their two best bets for Wednesday's slate, and both feature ACC road teams. We're using the current odds from William Hill (as of 10:44 a.m. EST) for these plays.

Clemson at Virginia
3MW Pick: Clemson +7.5

If you’re a fan of razzle-dazzle, up-and-down, high octane basketball… this game is not for you. However, if you’re into knock-down, drag-out, watch-the-screen-through-your fingers brick-fests, then find a stream and get your popcorn ready. Clemson travels to Virginia tonight in what should be an ugly affair. The total for this game opened at 104, implying Vegas expects this one to end in a scintillating 56-48 victory for the Hoos. The Tigers enter tonight off a road loss to suddenly competitive Wake Forest while Virginia is coming off a monster at-large-saving win at home against Florida State. Clemson hasn’t covered a game since Jan. 18th, losing four straight against the number. Virginia holds the worst ATS record in the ACC at 7-13, but it has covered three of its last five. From a spot perspective, we can look at this game tonight in two ways: 1) UVA is in a major letdown spot and therefore will not cover, or 2) the Hoos have finally found the formula that made them so successful the past decade under Tony Bennett. As Tiger backers tonight, we will hope for the former.

So why will this game be so ugly, you ask? Well, both teams are, shall we say, “challenged” offensively. Virginia is the sixth-worst three-point shooting team in the nation at 27.2% (worst in ACC at 26.2%) and the worst offense in the conference from an efficiency perspective. Clemson ranks 11th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and is shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc in conference play. Additionally, both teams are very physical in nature and pack the paint defensively, making any drive or rebound attempt a battle inside the arc. Finally, both squads prefer to play at a crawl—Virginia plays at the slowest tempo in the country and has attempted the second-fewest percentage of shots in transition, while Clemson ranks 275th in tempo and 325th in percentage of shots in transition.

Traditionally, slow, ugly affairs favor the dog, especially when a point spread is fairly large compared to the total as it is tonight. But, there are reasons to like Clemson outside of this factor. The Tigers’ defense is built to stop what Virginia “tries” to do offensively. They will force UVA to be outside shooters, a smart move against one the of the worst shooting teams in the nation, and pack the paint to discourage easy twos. Only two teams in the ACC are allowing a lower percentage of points inside the arc than Clemson. The Tigers rank 37th nationally in FGA% near the rim, a stat juxtaposed to their relatively small frontcourt. Additionally, despite its small frontline, Clemson ranks 43rd in the country in DR% and fourth in the ACC. Preventing guys like Jay Huff, Mamadi Diakite, and Braxton Key from creating extra possessions via the offensive glass is key to defeating Virginia.

Unfortunately, Clemson will have to score at least some points to cover the spread. That will prove challenging for the 275th-best offense going against the best defense in the nation. But, even though Clemson has shot poorly this year from outside the arc, it has been Brad Brownell’s preferred method of scoring. Shooting and making threes is pretty much the only viable strategy against Virginia’s famous pack-line defense, and the Tigers are more than willing to do just that. Clemson ranks 29th nationally in 3PA rate this season and all five guys on the floor are threats to shoot it from deep. Aamir Simms should be a matchup nightmare for Huff or Diakite, as his shooting ability will force them to be pulled further away from the paint than their comfort zone allows. The Tigers will shoot between 25 and 35 threes tonight—if they can convert on 30-35% of these, they will be in good position to cover. Winning the game outright seems out of the question against such a fierce defensive opponent like Virginia, and the Tigers are just 1-5 on the road. But covering 7.5 points in a game where scoring will be in the high-40s to low-50s is well within their wheelhouse. 

Wake Forest at No. 5 Louisville
3MW Pick: Wake Forest +15.5

A minor miracle.

That’s what it’ll take for Wake Forest to pull off the improbable tonight, facing the daunting task of taking down a red-hot Cardinals squad in a hostile environment.

Fortunately, the Demon Deacons have a proven miracle worker on their sidelines, Danny Manning, the once ringleader of Kansas’s beloved 1988 national championship team “Danny and Miracles.”

Fortunately, for us, an upset of historical magnitude isn’t what’s necessary from a betting perspective. We just need the Deacons to keep it moderately competitive for 40 minutes and squeak inside +15, a mountainous number for a February conference game.

The Deacons enter tonight’s tilt healthy for the first time in nearly a month. A myriad of players spent time on the training table in January, but Chaundee Brown is the key soldier who’s been recently revived. The burly 6’5" wing missed all but one game in the month of January, coinciding with two separate three-game losing streaks. Just before Brown suffered his lower leg injury, the Deacons knocked off Xavier and Pitt in the span of two weeks, which succeeded a pesky performance at the Wooden Legacy Classic just after Thanksgiving. In fact, dating back to the end of November, Wake is 6-3 against the spread when Brown hits the hardwood, an appropriate indicator of his value. Brown only clocked 12 minutes in his return to action last game against Clemson, but four days off in between should set up for a substantial minutes spike tonight, especially against the class of the conference.

To put the icing on the cake, consider the fact that Louisville might be sleepwalking, potentially unmotivated by an uninspiring and unintimidating opponent. The Cardinals’ monumental win over Duke in Cameron Indoor on Jan. 18 concluded a brutal three-game road trip, which also featured two gritty wins over Notre Dame and Pitt. Then, like a cyclist on an interval training circuit, the Cardinals downshifted into recovery gear for the latter half of January, cruising to victories over Georgia Tech and Clemson in the friendly confines of the KFC Yum! Center, before dispatching Boston College and N.C. State on the road with relative ease.

However, this conference cake walk is about to expire, as the Cardinals will ramp back to high-intensity resistance mode when Virginia comes to town this Saturday. Louisville’s accumulating boredom with the ACC’s cellar dwellers, combined with an eagerness for this weekend’s showdown with UVA, could be the perfect storm against a rejuvenated and motivated Wake squad, who’s playing with house money at this point in the season.

Overall Record: 35-34-2

3MW Record: 25-20-1

Meyer Record: 10-13-1

Guest Record: 0-1