College Basketball Best Bets: Who’s Ready to Rock The Hill?
College basketball experts Three Man Weave are back with their two best bets for Thursday's slate. We're using the current odds from Westgate SuperBook (as of 2 p.m. ET) for these plays.
UT Rio Grande Valley at Cal St. Bakersfield
3MW Pick: Cal St. Bakersfield -2.5
It’s a Thursday night in the wild, wild WAC, and we head to everyone’s favorite home venue: the Icardo Center, home of college basketball’s answer to the Smurf Turf at Boise State! Just look at these highlights for a sampling of the masterpiece.
The Roadrunners welcome UT Rio Grande Valley to the premises for the first leg of a Thursday/Saturday double-header for both. I’m eyeing up the home team here, as both the spot and the matchup appeal to me to varying degrees.
Situationally, there’s definitely an element of “buy low, sell high” here, as the Roadrunners have lost seven of their last eight games, with the only win in that stretch coming against WAC/NCAA cellar dweller Chicago State. Meanwhile, UTRGV’s only loss in its last seven came against undefeated league leader New Mexico State on Saturday. Suffice it to say, the month of February has treated these two teams very differently.
Additionally, the host Roadrunners should be anxious to avenge a disappointing loss at UTRGV back on February 1; the Roadrunners were clearly sluggish in that game after nearly winning at NMSU just 48 hours prior. The spot sets up far better for Bakersfield this time around.
There’s a clear matchup edge here, as well, as Bakersfield should dominate the glass on both ends of the court. Coach Rod Barnes plays a deep bench, and he has no shortage of athletic wings and bigs to hurl at the undersized Vaqueros in the paint. This should be most noticeable on the offensive glass, where the Roadrunners rank No. 11 nationally in offensive rebound rate, which matches up quite well against UTRGV’s defensive rebound rate ranking of No. 264.
Adding to this advantage is the possible absence of starting center Sean Rhea, who missed the Vaqueros’ last game at New Mexico State over the weekend. UTRGV was outrebounded 40-21 without him against a similarly deep, physical frontcourt.
The biggest risks here are turnovers against UTRGV’s pressure and the Roadrunners’ maddening tendency to hack everything that moves (353nationally in defensive free throw rate). The Roadrunners turned it over 17 times in the first meeting, and on the other end of the court, they allowed UTRGV to shoot a staggering 46 free throws. Both of those things–comfort level against pressure, and the officials’ whistles–should be aided by this game being at the aforementioned Icardo Center.
Nothing comes easy in the handicapping world, and I’m not expecting this one to be a blowout. But coach Barnes has been pleased with his team’s effort in spurts, and this feels like spot and matchup where the Roadrunners can play a full 40 minutes (or close to it). That should leave the Vaqueros feeling quite “blue” as they leave town…
Winthrop at USC Upstate
3MW's Pick: Winthrop -9.5
Who’s ready to #RockTheHill?
Join us tonight as we wander off the beaten path and journey into the abyss of college basketball’s Extra Board. Amongst all the obscure schools found in this section of the slate, we’re honing in on Winthrop, one of the most recognizable brands in the deep cut mid-major landscape.
Ever since Greg Marshall put Rock Hill, NC on the map back in the early 2000s, the Eagles have been held to a higher standard. Yet, despite all the trophies and accolades accumulated over the years, Winthrop is still constrained by the same scheduling challenges and budget limitations the vast majority of mid and low majors deal with on an annual basis. Within the confines of this systematic discrimination, at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament are an illusion. A farce. An unachievable pipe dream, attainable only by the upper 1% of the college basketball totem pole.
For the other 99%, this time of year is all about jockeying for favorable positioning in the conference tournament. Luckily, Winthrop plays in a league that stacks the deck heavily in favor of the regular season champion, an advantage many other mid-major conferences do not allot to their champions. The Big South’s regular season title can be cashed in for guaranteed home court throughout the entire tournament, as the winner enjoys the luxury of hosting the Quarterfinals and Semifinals, along with the Championship game (assuming they advance).
Just three weeks ago, Winthrop had the Big South crown all but secured, residing high atop the league leaderboard with a flawless 12-0 record. Somehow, over the last three weeks, the Rock Hill runaway freight train now looks like a runaway mine train, one hairpin turn away from running off the tracks. The Eagles have dropped three of their last four games, including a critical loss at home to Radford. Winthrop’s flat tire allowed the Highlanders to race into first, and Radford now holds a one-game lead over Winthrop atop the Big South standings.
In jeopardy of forfeiting home court advantage in the Big South tournament, it’s now or never for the Eagles. They’ll square off against an inferior opponent in USC Upstate this evening, but not one they’ll take lightly.
In the first matchup between these two earlier in the season, the Trojans somehow clawed their way to a slight lead late in the first half in Rock Hill, leading 34-30 with two minutes remaining. This woke up a sleeping giant and Winthrop remembered who it was in the final 20 minutes, obliterating Upstate by 26 points in the final stanza. That display of sheer domination serves as a useful reminder as to how lethal Winthrop’s top gear is when it's firing on all cylinders.
It’s tough to look through the muddied lens of this recent losing streak, but if we turn the time machine back to November, we can see who this Winthrop team really is.
On November 10, Winthrop flew all the way out to the West Coast to take on a talented and well-coached adversary in Fresno State. The Eagles pounced on the Bulldogs early and led by nine points with roughly 10 minutes remaining. After ultimately following short in the final minutes, Winthrop had no time to dwell on defeat–Saint Mary’s, the gold standard of mid-major programs, was waiting for them in less than 24 hours. In a rare back-to-back road game spot, Winthrop somehow stunned Saint Mary’s in Moraga, notching an impressive 61-59 victory over the Gaels.
This brief segment of the season is just one of many episodes this year that confirm what we’ve began to doubt the last two weeks: Winthrop carries a mighty sword in a mini conference, and packs the punch to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country on any given night.
But tonight isn’t an Ali vs. Frazier heavyweight bout – this is David vs. Goliath. The only difference is this time, Goliath is hungry, motivated and pissed off, which could unleash the furious wrath of Rock Hill nation down on poor USC Upstate.
3MW Record: 34-23-3
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