NHL Best Bets (March 3): Can Buffalo Snag the Road Win at Winnipeg?

Now that the calendar has flipped to March, the NHL's home stretch is finally upon us. As we move one day closer to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the importance of every game is magnified, and there are ten on the Tuesday slate. The premier matchup is Bruins vs. Lightning in Tampa, but Oilers vs. Sharks and Blues vs. Rangers are also quite intriguing.
There's plenty to wager on, but let's take a closer look at two games in particular. Here are my two best bets for Tuesday:
Buffalo Sabres vs. Winnipeg Jets: Jets (-140)
The Sabres travel to Winnipeg to end a dreadful four-game road trip. Buffalo lost each of its first three games of the trip, falling 3-2 to the Avalanche, 4-2 to the Golden Knights, and 5-2 to the Coyotes. Another loss could effectively end their dwindling playoff hopes for good.
Buffalo coming up short away from KeyBank Center isn’t exactly a new trend. They have the fourth-worst road record in the NHL at 10-18-4 and have won only two road games since mid-January (2-5-0). They’ve allowed 21 goals against in their last five away contests and already rank in the bottom-third of the league in goals against and have the NHL's worst penalty-killing unit.
The Jets have been very up and down lately as they try to find their way back into a Western Conference Wild Card spot. However, Winnipeg starts this three-game homestand on, appropriately, a three-game home winning streak. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is playing very well in net and is coming off a month where he had a 2.45 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage in 12 starts.
Winnipeg isn't more heavily favored because of their struggles with consistency overall and at home this season. However, they are the more talented team, have far better goaltending, and are still a better home team than the Sabres are a road team. Bet on a Jets victory tonight.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars: Under 5.5 goals (-115)
Betting unders aren't nearly as fun as betting overs, but this is one I couldn't pass up. Although the Stars are scoring a little more lately, the Oilers are usually the team you worry about filling up the back of their net (while their top line is on the ice, at least). However, Edmonton will be a tired bunch rolling into Dallas after playing the Predators in Nashville Monday night.
The average Stars home game this season has featured 4.81 goals. The last five Stars' home games have averaged 4.8 goals (yay for consistency). Dallas is averaging only 2.58 goals per game on home ice, third-worst in the NHL. The Oilers average 2.91 goals per game on the road this season, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.
The last game between these two teams in Dallas back on December 16 ended with a 2-1 score in Edmonton’s favor. I expect another low-scoring affair on Tuesday night.
Season Record: 37-33-2 (+1.82 units)
