NHL Best Bets (March 5): Take The Under With This Stingy Defense

We have a big ten-game slate for NHL bettors. Check out our two best bets, including this impressive defense with a hot goaltender.

Thursday night is filled with NHL action as there are ten games on the slate for bettors to choose from. The game of the night takes place in south Florida as the Panthers host the Bruins in an Atlantic Division battle. Other contests of note include Capitals vs. Rangers, Hurricanes vs. Flyers, and Stars vs. Predators.

There's plenty to wager on, but let's take a closer look at two games in particular. Here are my two best bets for Thursday:

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Los Angeles Kings: Under 6.5 goals (-120)

The Maple Leafs are one of those teams that make you feel a bit squeamish when you bet the under on one of their games, but the hook makes this total too good to pass up. In my head, I had this game's total pegged for six goals at -110 each way.

Quietly, the Kings are pretty stingy defensively at the Staples Center. Despite having the worst record in the Western Conference and second-worst record in the NHL, they aren’t ranked in the bottom 10 in the league at home. One big reason why is because they rank t-9th in the NHL in goals allowed per home game at 2.70.

Another reason why I like this game to stay below the posted total is Jonathan Quick’s recent success. He’s allowed just seven total goals in his last four starts, going 3-0-1. He’s also only allowed more than three goals in a game once since Christmas. He only allowed three goals to the Maple Leafs in Toronto in the only meeting this season between these two teams back in early November.

Although the Maple Leafs are the highest-scoring road team in the NHL this season at 3.59 goals per game, they’ve been trending down in that area recently. In their eight road games since the start of February, Toronto is averaging just 2.88 goals per game.

The Kings can suppress opposing offenses at home, they don't have the firepower to run up the score themselves, and the Leafs aren't clicking on even the majority of their cylinders right now. That's a solid recipe for the under.

Dallas Stars vs. Nashville Predators: Stars Over 2.5 goals (-125)

Let's delve into the land of team props for our second-best bet. The Stars aren't a team known for their offensive prowess, but they've found a little bit of a scoring touch away from home lately.

Since the start of February, Dallas is averaging 3.40 goals per road game. Now they go up against a team that ranks fifth-worst in the NHL in defending their net at home. The Predators are allowing 3.18 goals per game this season at home and 4.00 goals per game in their last half-dozen contests at Bridgestone Arena.

These two teams have met twice already this season, and Dallas scored four goals in each of those games. The Stars have scored at least three goals in 10 straight road games. I don't see a way they don't get to the mark again for the 11th game in a row given the matchup.

Season Record: 39-33-2 (+3.40 units)