PGA Betting: Charles Schwab Challenge Longshot Plays

Roll the dice with these long odds longshots for the upcoming PGA Tour Charles Schwab Challenge. SI Gambling expert Ben Heisler provides his plays for those who love the underdog.

A massive field of nearly 150 golfers is set to tee off in this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. Since the Players Championship was cut short in March due to the coronavirus, the event is wide open, particularly for longshots to come in and surprise with no full-field PGA action.

With course history and scrambling suggesting to be friendly metrics towards winning at Colonial, let’s take a look at a handful of longshots at 60/1 or higher that could find themselves in contention on the final day.

Odds are courtesy of the opening lines at Westgate Superbook

Ryan Palmer (60/1)

Palmer is a member of Colonial and has been since 2010. His caddie has been a member since 2005.

He’s also played this course 16 times, going back to 2004 when it was the Bank of America Colonial. It’s since gone on to become the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, the Dean & Deluca Invitational, the Fort Worth Invitational, and now the Charles Schwab Challenge.

The point is, experience matters, and it goes back years for Palmer, who has three Top-6 finishes since 2014.

"I've been playing golf every day since we stopped playing at THE PLAYERS. Colonial has been open to play. The clubhouse has been closed, obviously, but we've been able to walk and play."- Ryan Palmer, member of Colonial and has four top 10's in the @CSChallengeFW

— Ron Mintz (@MintzGolf) June 9, 2020

Westgate appears to have considered this when they first put out his odds at 60/1. On other sites, such as FOXBet, odds for Palmer came out at 100/1 but were quickly bet down.

Kevin Kisner (80/1)

Kisner won at Colonial back in 2017 and finished tenth and fifth in the previous two years.

He has a ton of experience entering his seventh appearance playing this course and has Top-20 scrambling numbers inside 10 and 20 yards.

Kisner has also played exceptionally well on Fridays and Sundays at Colonial and is improving his Saturday scores as well, with a 67.88 Round 3 scoring average. If Kisner gets off to a slow start, you may be able to live bet him with even better value!

Hobby time is over. Time to get back to work @CSChallengeFW pic.twitter.com/idwHSHeDjI

— Kevin Kisner (@K_Kisner) June 8, 2020

Brian Harman (125/1)

Since we’re evaluating course history as a reliable indicator of success, look no further than Harman’s last five outings at Colonial.

Course History L5Y @CSChallengeFW:

Jordan Spieth: T8, T32, T2, 1st, T2
Kevin Na: 1st, 4th, x, T42, T10
Danny Lee: T48, T15, 6th, T22, T10
Harman: T32, T14, T7, T25, T10
Hoffman: T13, T52, T24, T42, T10
Kisner: MC, T52, 1st, T10, T5

See also: Webb, Finau, Grillo, Tway, Sabbatini

— Fantasy Golf Pod (@fantasygolfpod) June 8, 2020

Heading into the Charles Schwab Challenge, Harman ranks 20th in weighted scoring average and 17th in putts per round. His birdie or better conversion percentage is just outside the Top 40 and ranks 30th in overall scrambling.

Harman knows this course well, and while I don’t expect him to win outright, I think the odds provide plenty of value for someone with absolute opportunity to be in contention on Sunday.

Other Longshots to Consider

• Joel Dahmen (100/1)
• Emiliano Grillo (150/1)
• Maverick McNealy (150/1)