Rocket Mortgage Classic Predictions & Best Bets
The PGA Tour is back again this week from Detroit, Michigan, so it’s time to make some money with the help of the SI Gambling team of experts.
The reigning champion of the event, Nate Lashley, is back to defend his title at odds at 125/1. Lashley, who won the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic after overcoming tragedy, will attempt to get his game on track after missing the cut in both the Charles Schwab Challenge and the RBC Heritage.
It’s another huge field of 156 players this week at Detroit Golf Club. However, it is thinned-out from previous weeks with only 10 of the top 20 players ranked in the 2020 FedEx Cup standings projected to participate in the Rocket Mortgage Championship.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Details:
Dates: July 2–5, 2020
Course: Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan
TV: GOLF Channel; CBS
Purse: $7,500,000
As highlighted earlier this week, the field at the Rocket Mortgage Classic will have three overall top-15 players in the World Golf Rankings.
Bryson DeChambeau (6/1) sits atop the Westgate Superbook Las Vegas betting board as the favorite following three straight top-10 finishes in the Charles Schwab Challenge (T3), RBC Heritage (T8) and the Travelers Championship (T6). Following Dechambeau closely are Webb Simpson (12/1), Patrick Reed (16/1), Tyrrell Hatton (18/) and Hideki Matsuyama (18/1).
Our team of gambling experts has compiled their approach to the RBC Heritage from a betting perspective. In addition, located below is sharp wagering information from both Vegas and London, England.
Let’s take a look at the odds as well as the team’s best bets and more!
Odds via Westgate Superbook Las Vegas
Rocket Mortgage Classic: Predictions & Best Bets
Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Rocket Mortgage Classic Breakdown Sharp Action:
Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located in London, England has been on fire with sharp picks since the PGA return: just missing out on the winner as Colin Morikawa (40/1) who fell to Daniel Berger (80/1) in a sudden-death playoff at Colonial, followed up by a superb value play of Tyrell Hatton (56/1) who finished T3 in the RBC Heritage.
According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, these PGA Tournaments continue to remain wide open:
“Players coming from last week TPC River Highlands with Bentgrass and Pou Annua Greens — are back to Bermuda Grass this week in Detroit. Bryson DeChambeau is a clear favorite this week and Metric Gaming is in total agreement. Odds of 6-1 aren’t quite enough for a wager, but it is very close to what we’re making him across the pond at fair market value.”
"Webb Simpson is perhaps the best putter in the field on Bermuda Greens, and with a win two weeks ago, is expected to have another strong outing. 15-1, however, just isn’t too exciting,” added Banham.
Metric Gaming advises all bettors to shop around for the best prices for the players their models are high on for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, notably Tyrrell Hatton (18/1), Tony Finau (30/1, J.T. Poston (40/1), Rory Sabbatini (60/1 - down to 50/1 at WG), Kevin Kisner (80/1 - down to 60/1 at WG) and Chris Kirk (150/1 - down to 100/1 at WG).
In addition, Banham highlighted two 72-hole matchup plays that are worthy of garnering attention from sports bettors: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-110) over Rafa Cabrero Bello and Tony Finau (+100) over Sungjae Im.
Metric Gaming’s Player to Win:
Tyrrell Hatton (18/1)
Hatton, who checks in at No. 15 in World Rankings, is fresh off a performance that saw him T3 at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Hatton has simply been on fire this season with four top-10 finishes. “His game is very solid these days, and he is putting superbly,” said Banham.
Metric Gaming’s Sharp Value Plays:
Tony Finau (30/1)
Finau ranks No. 17 in the world and offers tremendous value; especially if he is able to return to the form we witnessed back in February when he finished second in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Metric Gaming sees value in a golfer they expect to raise his game in Detroit after missing the cut last week at the Travelers Championship.
J.T. Poston (40/1)
Leishman has been in tremendous form since the PGA restart with two top-10 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge (T10) and the RBC Heritage (T8). Metric Gaming believes bettors should not shy away from Poston this week despite missing the cut last week at the Travelers Championship.
Metric Gaming’s Sharp Longshots:
Rory Sabbatini (60/1 - down to 50/1 at Westgate)
Kevin Kisner (80/1 - down to 60/1 at Westgate)
Chris Kirk (150/1 - down to 100/1 at Westgate)
Rory Sabbatini, who ranks No. 88 in the world rankings, is a longshot play that offers attractive odds. Before skipping the Travelers Championship, Sabbatini posted four straight top-50 finishes highlighted by (T14) at the Charles Schwab Challenge and (T21) at the RBC Heritage. Sabbatini's game flourished at the course last year when he finished T3 in the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic event.
Vegas Whispers:
On The Move At William Hill US:
According to Adrienne Prather-Marcos, Director of Public Relations at William Hill US, the sharp money has already begun to make its way on the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Las Vegas.
“One Nevada bettor placed $250 on Cameron Tringale 250/1 for a potential total payout of $56,500, the largest one as of now at William Hill. Tringale now stands at 150/1. Another Nevada bettor put down $500 on Rafael Cabrera-Bello 65/1 for a potential total payout of $33,000.”
The biggest bet taken at William Hill for this tournament so far has come in on the favorite, according to Prather-Marcos.
“A Nevada bettor wagered $777.77 on DeChambeau at odds of 13/2 for a potential total payout of $5,833.25.”
Shawn Childs, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst (@Shawn__Childs)
PLAYERS TO WIN:
Bryson DeChambeau 6/1
With a shootout expected this week and the top end talent having less depth than the previous three tournaments, DeChambeau comes in as the chalk player. His low odds will push the lower-tier betters to options with much higher odds.
Since early August in 2018, DeChambeau has played in 47 events, which led to four wins (all in 2018) and 11 top 10’s. He has six straight top 10’s while being 64 under per over his last 20 rounds. With eight par 5's on this course, DeChambeau looks poised to dominate on the long holes while riding his impressive length with his driver. When adding in that he is the best player over the last 24 rounds on par 4's, DeChambeau looks poised to shine as the odds on favorite in this tournament.
A win is a win no matter the payout. I would also look to key him on DraftKings ($11,700) in the quest to take down the million dollar first prize.
Patrick Reed 16/1
Last year Reed finished in fifth place in this event while coming up on Sunday (70). Over his previous 18 rounds, he shot under 70 in 11 rounds highlighted by his win at the WGC in Mexico. He remains one of the top players in putting while also leading the PGA Tour in birdies in 2020. Reed also ranks eighth in the field in scoring on par 4's and 13th on par 5's.
BEST VALUE PLAY:
Jason Day 50/1
Before last week, Day missed four straight cuts while battling a back injury that required surgery in mid-March. Over his last five rounds, he shot under 70 leading to a 46th place finish at Travelers Championship. Day’s last win came in the Wells Fargo Championship in May of 2018. Trending forward, but I may be a week early as I was with Dustin Johnson and possibly Patrick Reed this week.
BEST LONGSHOT:
Kevin Kisner 60/1
I’m looking for Kisner to have a bounce back this week after missing the cut in back-to-back weeks. In the 2018 and 2019 season, he finished 9th in earning on the PGA Tour with a win and five top 10s over 25 events. Kisner shot -9 under par at this event in 2019, leading to a 46th place finish.
Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)
PLAYERS TO WIN:
Tyrell Hatton (18/1)
Hatton started off rough at the RBC Heritage with a 71 but shot a 64, 63, and 66 in the next three rounds to finish tied for third. He’s once again coming in fresh in a substantially lighter field this week at Detroit Golf Club and should be ready to pounce.
Hatton has three top-six finishes in his last three events and has made every cut so far this season. He plays sparingly, but when he does, he usually does exceptionally well.
Viktor Hovland (20/1)
Hovland’s odds have continued to rise due to impressive performances since the Tour resumed. He hit a double bogey Sunday at the Travelers that dropped him down to a 68 (-2) on the day and still finished 11th.
His driving accuracy continues to improve each week, and he’s currently ranked 2nd in greens hit in regulation. Hovland has gotten better each week since the tour resumed, and this is an ideal field where he can be in it until the end on Sunday, perhaps even pull away if there’s not a costly mistake.
BEST VALUE PLAYS:
Scottie Scheffler (35/1)
I like Scheffler quite a bit for this week, and may actually fly under the radar after missing the cut at the Travelers Championship last week. He wasn’t terrible, finishing at -3, but expectations last week were certainly higher.
Scheffler still ranks 11th in driving distance, 9th in birdie average, and 17th in scoring average. His approach around the green still needs to come back to life, but he’s more than capable of pulling it off. Scheffler also has four top 10 finishes in 15 events in the 2020 PGA season.
Rory Sabbatini (50/1)
Sabbatini didn’t play last week at the Travelers, but his game has been in excellent shape since the Tour picked up back in June at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Ft. Worth. He’s also been killing it the last two Sundays, shooting back-to-back 65’s with six birdies and a bogey-free round coming at the RBC Heritage.
Sabbatini finished 14th and 21st in both of his events, and also came in third last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year. I also like him in his head-to-head matchup at -120 over Lucas Glover, via the odds at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.
BEST LONGSHOTS:
You can read Ben's full list of longshots and value bets HERE:
Harold Varner III (80/1)
The knock on Varner has never been his talent. He has three top 20 finishes in 2020, including 19th at the Charles Schwab Challenge on the PGA restart. In fact, he had the outright lead after 36 holes at Colonial in dominant fashion. The issue for Varner is stepping on a lead and being able to close out his opponents.
One positive from his 32nd place finish last week at the Travelers? His best round of golf came on Sunday, where he shot a 66.
As Justin Bailey points out below, once Varner gets off the tee, he’s been outstanding off fairways and his approach game.
Wesley Bryan (150/1)
Bryan led all players in strokes gained - approach last week. He’s also back on bentgrass for putting, where according to Pat Mayo’s research, gives Bryan a +0.31 strokes per round putting advantage.
He struggles off the tee shouldn’t hinder him too much at this type of course. I also love the pairing he has with Harold Varner III and Viktor Hovland, two of my favorite bets for this weekend to up his game.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Erik Van Rooyan (EVEN) over Christian Bezuidenhout (-120)
Alex White, SI Gambling & Fantasy Golf Contributor / Full Time Fantasy (@CoachWhiteDFS)
PLAYER TO WIN:
Patrick Reed (16/1)
The odds on Bryson are too rich for my blood this week. My first pivot will be Reed.
The amount of birdies he is putting up each tournament is staggering. Reed ranks second overall in birdie or better percentage in this field. Last week he gained 3.1 strokes through approach alone. If he brings that type of iron play to this course he will be in contention. The putter is never a concern for Reed and his best putting surface is Bentgrass, which Detroit golf club has. Reed has a great opportunity to win and 16/1 in this field is considerable value in my opinion.
BEST VALUE PLAY:
J.T. Poston (40/1)
Last year he took 11th place at Detroit Golf Club. The kid can flat out putt and chip. Last year he won the Wyndham and has been in the mix on Sunday’s multiple times since. I feel like this is a random week where it all clicks for Poston and he makes a real run at 40/1 odds.
BEST LONGSHOT:
Erik Van Rooyen (80/1)
I love this guy’s game. When the irons are hot, he gives himself a chance on nearly every hole to score. The putter is his biggest downfall but we all know that only takes a couple good putting rounds to win tournaments. The man can score. With four par 5’s on this course, he will make the most of those chances. The odds are perfect for a golfer of his caliber. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour but does have a couple wins on the European tour.
FAVORITE PROP:
Will Tony Finau Finish in the Top 20: YES +140
Finau needs a get right spot. This course has the perfect storm of factors that play into Finau’s hand. He crushes par 5’s and he gets four every day he walks on the course. His best putting surface is Bentgrass. Detroit Golf Club is primarily Bentgrass greens. His best par 4 scoring happens in between ranges of 450-500 yard holes. Detroit Golf Club has four par 4’s in that range each round. Fire him up for this bet and you might want to consider him at +600 to top 5 this tournament.
Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Writer (@SIGambling)
PLAYER TO WIN:
Bryson DeChambeau (6/1)
Following three straight star studded tournaments, seven of the top 10 players in the World Golf Rankings have decided to skip this event. That leaves Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau as the top ranked players in the field. DeChambeau has been one of the top contenders on a weekly basis as he has posted six straight top eight finishes. DeChambeau ranks sixth in shots gained tee-to-green and the Detroit Golf Club has three reachable par fives.
FAVORITE PROP:
TOP-5 FINISH: Webb Simpson (+275)
Webb Simpson returns to action looking to build on his first place finish at the RBC Heritage tournament two weeks ago. Simpson finished at -22, one stroke ahead of Abraham Ancer, and his 262 total score set a new RBC Heritage 72-hole record. He withdrew from the Travelers Championship last week, due to Covid-19 concerns, but all of his tests have been negative. Simpson has shot 65 or lower during 15 of his last 58 rounds so expect his strong play to continue.
BEST LONGSHOT:
Rory Sabbatini (50/1)
Posting scores in the 60’s, during seven of his last eight rounds, Rory Sabbatini is a longshot play worth considering. Prior to skipping the Travelers Championship last week, Sabbatini finished 21st at the RBC Heritage tournament and 14th during the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is just the second Rocket Mortgage Classic tournament at the Detroit Golf Club. Sabbatini posted a 270 total (-18) and finished in a two-way third place tie in the inaugural event last year.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Victor Hovland (-120) over Sungjae Im
Improving each week, since the PGA season restart, Viktor Hovland finished T23 in the Charles Schwab Challenge, T21 at the RBC Heritage and T11 during the Travelers Championship last week. Sungjae Im was playing well prior to the pause as he won the Honda Classic and finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has slumped recently though as he missed the cut two weeks ago and finished at T58 last week. Bet on the hotter player in this matchup.
