2020 3M Open: Value Bets and Longshots

It's a wide-open field at TPC Twin Cities this week for the 3M Open. SI Gambling insider Ben Heisler takes you through some of his favorite value bets and longshot plays for this week.

Author:
Ben Heisler
Publish date:
Jul 22, 2020

3M Open Value Plays

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Odds used are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Paul Casey (20/1)

Another case of “ole reliable,” Casey’s first cut of the season came last weekend at the Memorial when he shot a 77 on Day 2. In a similar fashion to Bryson DeChambeau recording a 10 to knock him out of contention, Casey recorded an “8” on a Par 3 on Hole 12 that absolutely sunk his chances to hang around for the weekend.

Before Friday, the worst round he shot all season was a 75 at the Genesis Invitational that knocked him out of the top tier and into 37th.

Casey on the season is ninth in SG: off-the-tee, ninth in SG: approach, and 17th in SG: tee-to-green. He also ranks 14th in greens in regulation percentage. Like Dustin Johnson, his short game and around-the-green game have been what’s hurt him as of late, but with top 10 numbers in strokes-gained total, he’s more than capable of bouncing back and playing well.

Russell Henley (33/1)

Henley has some terrific metrics in his favor for not just this course, but also with his recent history. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in SG: total, first in SG: tee-to-green, fourth in SG: ball striking, and first in SG: approach.

His putting? Pretty brutal at 122nd, but I’m willing to ride with Henley’s recent form in tournaments this week. With a cut sandwiched in between his last five outings, Henley has a pair of top 10 finishes at the Honda Classic and Workday Charity Open, as well as strong performances at the Genesis Open and Travelers Championship.

Erik Van Rooyen (36/1)

The former University of Minnesota star gets a homecoming visit this week and will look to improve upon his T22 finish last week at the Memorial. TPC Twin Cities should play substantially easier than a week ago, so that should be an encouraging sign for Van Rooyen to know that if he can play Muirfield Village to a near top 20 finish last week, he should be able to cruise at the 3M Open this week.

For DFS purposes, Van Rooyen most weeks would be more of a tournament play, considering he’s missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments. But both cuts he’s made were just outside the top 20, and he’s been outstanding in both SG: off-the-tee (20) as well as SG: approach (8) over his last 24 rounds.

Other Values to Consider

Luke List (49/1)

Kristoffer Ventura (65/1)

Carlos Ortiz (70/1)

Workday Charity Open Longshots

Charley Hoffman (75/1)

Hoffman may end up becoming aa more popular bet as the week goes on; quite frankly at 75/1 odds I’m not sure what’s not to like? He has top 15 rankings in SG: total, tee-to-green and approach, as well as top 25 in ball-striking and putting.

I also love targeting players who are trending upwards and Hoffman is just that. He missed the cut at the Charles Schwab and RBC, but since then finished 41st at the Travelers and T7 at the Workday. His recent form in nearly every major category, including putting is excellent to pair with a very enticing odds number.

Bernd Wiesberger (85/1)

Wiesberger is currently a top 30 ranked player and is likely to be overlooked for a variety of reasons. His first time back since the Tour returned was last weekend at the Memorial and he shot a 75 on day one and a 76 on day two. Going +7 on your first Tour event since the restart is what the kids like to refer to as, “sub-optimal.”

Regardless, Wiesberger will not only face easier competition this week compared to the Memorial, but also play on a much more lenient course. He’s already seen his number move from 90/1 to 85/1 with a little sharp money coming in.

Chase Seiffert (90/1)

Seiffert is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Workday, but the concern I have is lack of recent form. If you look at his metrics over his last several rounds, they’re terrific, but he’s only played in two tournaments since the restart with one of them missing the cut.

However, the price is right at 90/1. I’m willing to take a stab on someone who comes in 7th in SG: total for a small amount if I think he can make some noise, which he’s more than capable of in a smaller field.

Cameron Davis (150/1)

Davis has missed four consecutive cuts and is a huge wild card heading into the 3M Open. But if you look closer, a substantial reason is that his putter has been dreadful. Over his last 24 rounds, his putting rankings 118th amongst golfers on tour in SG: putting.

If we look at his other useful metrics, it's perplexing as to why he hasn't been better. He's fourth in SG: total, ninth in SG: off-the-tee, 12th in SG: around-the-green.

Other Longshots to Consider

Si-Woo Kim (75/1)

Jason Dufner (150/1)

Hudson Swafford (190/1)

Intern Liam's Value & Longshot Picks

Harris English (33/1)

Coming off a top 15 finish at the memorial
69.5 stroke average this season
In his last two starts has not finished above T-17
In excellent form at the moment; not concerned about last year's missed cut at the 3M

Brian Harman (50/1)