2020 PGA Championship Longshots and Value Bets: Time to Back Scottie Scheffler Again?

With all the big names in the field for the first PGA Tour Major Championship of the year, SI Gambling analyst Ben Heisler highlights some of his favorite value bets and longshot plays that could pay off big!

Author:
Ben Heisler
Publish date:
Aug 5, 2020

Editor's Note: All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Previous PGA Tour Event Winners & Odds to Win:

FedEx St. Jude: Justin Thomas (12/1)
3M Open: Michael Thompson (133/1)
The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm (22/1)
Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa (33/1)
Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau (6/1)
Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson (28/1)
RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson (30/1)
Charles Schwab Challenge: Daniel Berger (80/1)

PGA Championship Value Bets

Viktor Hovland (45/1)

Hovland started off the restart on fire with back-to-back top 12 finishes at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage Classic, before a third place finish at the Workday. The last two events? He’s been more human with a T48 at the Memorial and a T59 at the FedEx St. Jude.

I’m not much of a Star Wars fan, but I assume one can make an analogy for Hovland learning how to use the force when it comes to controlling his short game. For as terrific as he is strokes gained: tee-to-green (2nd) and SG: ball striking (1st) since the restart, his putter has let him down time and time again. If just for a weekend, Hovland can become “Putting Yoda,” then "walk away with a Major Championship, he will!"

Intern Liam’s Notepad

Has only 2 finishes since the restart of golf that are outside the top 25.
Has not missed a cut since the restart of golf either.

Gary Woodland (45/1)

I messed around with the models over at Fantasy National to try and mimic conditions we may see at Harding Park in San Francisco. After turning the rough length to “long” set the course length to 7200-7400 yards, and putting wind conditions to, “Windy AF,” Gary Woodland popped right to the top of the list in a wide variety of categories.

If weather is a condition, and it always is in play in San Francisco, Woodland has shown he can hang with the best of them and perform at an elite level.

Intern Liam’s Notepad

14 starts with 2 missed cuts and 6 top 10's shows Woodland is in mid season form.
Already has major experience with one under his belt.
28th in driving distance which will help him.
11th in birdies made

Abraham Ancer (65/1)

For DFS purposes, my guess is Ancer likely end up moving from sharp tournament play to several cash game lineups as the week goes by, but if he wants to play the “disrespect card” with his pricing for both fantasy and the betting market, he has every right.

Ancer finished T58 at the Memorial a few weeks back, but he’s finished no worse than top 15 in four of his last five outings.

After Cantlay, Hatton and Rory, Ancer has made the most consecutive cuts in a row with 14.

Intern Liam’s Notepad

Has not missed a cut since the restart
Ranks second in scrambling gained and fourth in fairways gained

Other PGA Championship Value Plays

Matthew Fitzpatrick (40/1)

Jason Day (45/1)

Tyrell Hatton (50/1)

Adam Scott (75/1)

PGA Championship Longshots

Scottie Scheffler (85/1)

Yep. We're going back to the Scottie Scheffler well again, but I promise, this time it's different!

We played him ahead of the Rocket Mortgage and Workday Charity Open when he was way undervalued due to bad recent performance. Now, he's undervalued and his recent play has been terrific with back-to-back contending finishes: T22 at the Memorial, and T15 at the FedEx St. Jude.

Scheffler has left his awful play from the beginning of the restart in the rearview mirror. Plus, I may sprinkle a few bucks on him to win the first round outright at 70/1 as he gets the first tee of the day when nobody else will have trounced around on the course.

Time to hop aboard at great longshot odds due to all the big names participating this week.

Intern Liam’s Notepad

Monster off the tee
Scheffler is 10th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee for the 2020 season

Corey Conners (180/1)

Conners crushes it in two of my favorite metrics for this week. Since the restart, he's top 17 in SG: off-the-tee and top 15 in SG en route to three consecutive finishes ranging from T22-T39.

Even more impressive? He's done it without any touch either on or around-the-green, ranking 118th in SG: around-the-green and 102nd in SG: putting.

If he gets off to a decent start Thursday, I expect Conners to hang around and cause some commotion up on the leaderboard.

Intern Liam’s Notepad

Conners has a really solid game and strokes gained tee-to-green he ranks 17th
Dual threat off the tee and to the green
If he makes some putts this week he’s a real solid pick. He’s 184 strokes gained putting on the season so if he gets the putter hot, he'll play well