UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori - MMA Betting & DFS Preview

A middleweight bout featuring Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori headlines this UFC Fight Night main card.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Dec 4, 2020

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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori

#UFCVegas16 MMA Betting Preview

If there is one thing we've become accustomed to as the UFC marches on through the pandemic, it's that fight shake-ups are the new norm. Heading into Saturday's card, we have another main event shake-up, but we are now set, and in front of us is another exciting Fight Night headlined by #4 Jack Hermansson squaring off against #13 Marvin Vettori. The winner here marches right up into the mix of title talk as both are on the cusp, and Saturday's results will be a difference-maker for one of these two middleweights.

This week's card is slated for 11 bouts, with only two of the fights with wide lines, making for a night of very competitive matchups. The entire event will be live and broadcasted on ESPN+ with the prelims kicking off at 7 p.m. EST, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. EST.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT DETAILS

DATE: SATURDAY 12/05/2020
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 11

UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY

Fight card predictions overall: 360-191-10 (65%)
Targeted matchups (wagers): 192-80-5 (71%)

MAIN CARD

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

#4 JACK HERMANSSON 21-5 VS #13 MARVIN VETTORI 15-3-1

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS

#15 OVINCE SAINT PREUX 25-14 VS JAMAHAL HILL 8-0

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

#15 MONTANA DE LA ROSA 11-6 VS TAILA SANTOS 16-1

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS

ROMAN DOLIDZE 7-0 VS JOHN ALLAN 13-5

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

NATE LANDWEHR 14-3 VS MOVSAR EVLOEV 13-0

PRELIMS

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS

GIAN VILLANTE 17-12 VS JAKE COLLIER 11-5

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

MATT WIMAN 16-9 VS JORDAN LEAVITT 7-0

FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

JIMMY FLICK 15-5 VS CODY DURDEN 11-2-1

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

ILIA TOPURIA 9-0 VS DAMON JACKSON 18-3-1

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

GABRIEL BENITEZ 21-8 VS JUSTIN JAYNES 16-5

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS

LOUIS SMOLKA 16-7 VS JOSE QUINONEZ 8-4

MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

#4 JACK HERMANSSON 21-5 VS #13 MARVIN VETTORI 15-3-1

Ok, so let's get this straight. Hermansson was supposed to fight Darren Till, who pulled out due to an undisclosed injury. The always game Kevin Holland steps in to replace Till, but then tests positive for covid. Vettori was slated to face Omari Akhmedov, but Akhmedov withdrew. Then scheduled is Vettori taking on Ronaldo Jacare Souza to replace Akhmedov. Now that fight is scrapped and rebooked to fight a week earlier than planned, Vettori stepping in to now face Hermansson. I think I got it.

So now we have two very respectable middleweights inching closer to a title opportunity with a win Saturday night, and the rebooking brings what oddsmakers believe will be a much closer main event. Hermansson was set to be a -250 favorite against Kevin Holland, but now against Vettori, the line was moved to open at -155, favoring "The Joker." It didn't take long at all for the line on the opposite side, Vettori, to get pounded, swiftly making the new challenger the now slight favorite. Both fighters have similar styles and combine striking with some solid grappling coupled with submission skill.

For Hermansson, the #4 ranked middleweight in the world. He looks to continue momentum off of his quick first-round submission win over Kelvin Gastelum back in July. That victory was much needed because before that fight, Hermansson had lost to Jared Cannonier via knockout, taking him off track to a title fight. On the flip side, Marvin Vettori steps up on short notice as the #13 middleweight in the world. He is riding some considerable momentum winning his last three fights since dropping a split decision loss to current champ Israel Adesanya in 2018.

So who wins?

Hermansson has been training for the five-round main event slot, while Vettori was prepping for three rounds, though it was twice scheduled against opponents with strong grappling/submission bases. It's safe to assume that oddsmakers had Hermansson at -250 against Holland, as Hermansson more than likely would have had a considerable grappling edge against the stand-up striker, though now faces a much stronger grappler in Vettori, hence the line move. Hermansson's length and prepared gas tank should pose some issues for Vettori on the feet, though Vettori's high pressure and ability to close will make the fight on the feet very interesting. There is no doubt that this one gets to the mat, and at that point, Vettori will be a tough out for Hermansson, as Vettori has yet to be finished in his career. Hermansson has won three of his last four victories by way of submission, and though it very well could happen again here, even with Vettori's track record, I don't see it happening early on. This paired with Vettori's limited power shots on the feet (only two KO wins in 20 fights), has me siding with the over 2.5 rounds in this spot. Sure Hermansson has an 81% finish rate, though as of late, it's tough to look past the age, or even "fighter age" in recent fights he's had scheduled. Looking at a handful of his last five or six fights, he's faced a 39-year-old Thales Leites, Gerald Meerschaert with 45 fights, David Branch 39 years old, Jacare Souza 40 years old, and Jared Cannonier at 36. Yes, his most recent win against Kelvin Gastelum is respectable, though the fight didn't get going, and only nine combined strikes were thrown until they got tangled up and Hermansson snuck in a heel hook. This go-round, Vettori will be very aware and prepared for some sneaky stuff, and as I previously noted, his prior training for top tier grapple/submission fighters will suit him well.

Additionally, six of Vettori's last seven UFC fights have gone to the final bell, and against some very dangerous foes. As far as decisions go, Hermansson is 4-1, and Vettori is 4-4 when fights go to the final bell, so I won't rush out to bet Vettori at this price. I'm not sure if this one goes all five, but I'm fairly confident in the over 2.5 rounds at a great price.

MAIN CARD WAGERS

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: #4 JACK HERMANSSON 21-5 VS #13 MARVIN VETTORI 15-3-1

Vettori steps in on short notice.
In 19 fights, Vettori has never been finished.
Vettori went to a split decision and lost against current champ, Israel Adesanya.
Vettori has gone to a decision in 6 of his last 7 fights, while only 1 of Hermansson's last 10 fights have gone to the final bell.
BET: Click here to continue

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS: #15 OVINCE SAINT PREUX 25-14 VS JAMAHAL HILL 7-0-1

Hill is still undefeated, though his last fight was overturned to a no-contest due to a positive marijuana test. Hill states he did not smoke while in competition and took the fight on 4 weeks notice. In that fight, Hill beat Abreu in less than 2 minutes.
OSP is just 3-4 in his last 7 fights, though his last 6 wins are all via finish.
OSP is known for very awkward, low volume striking.
OSP is 8 years older than Hill
OSP is just 1-2 against southpaws, while Hill is 3-0. (Both fighters are southpaw)
Hill lands over 5 significant strikes per minute on average compared to OSP.
BET: Click here to continue

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: #15 MONTANA DE LA ROSA 11-6 VS TAILA SANTOS 16-1

With 11 victories, De La Rosa has only gone to a decision in 3 of them, which happens to be her last 3 consecutive fights.
Santos has never been finished.
Santos sweeps all statistical striking and grappling stats except for submission attempts.
One common opponent being Mara Romero Borella. De La Rosa beat her by decision in 2020, while Santos lost to her via split in 2019.
BET: Click here to continue

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS: ROMAN DOLIDZE 7-0 VS JOHN ALLAN 13-5

Allan has been out for over 16 months, after a suspension and a withdrawal from his fight in September due to visa issues.
Allan's win over Mike Rodriguez was overturned to a no-contest after failing an in-competition drug test. (a metabolite of tamoxifen)
Dolidze has the edge in all striking statistics.
This will be Dolidze's first fight in the U.S.
Dolidze is undefeated, and though early on, fought some low-level fighters, his last three finishes have been against fighters with a combined record of 39-15. (8-4, 14-5, 17-6)

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: NATE LANDWEHR 14-3 VS MOVSAR EVLOEV 13-0

This will be Evloev's 1st fight in the US. He's undefeated at 13-0 and 3-0 in the UFC.
Though active on the feet, Landwehr absorbs 7.22 strikes per minute, which is significantly high and a concern facing Evloev and his fighting style.
Landwehr has been taken down in each of his UFC fights. I'd anticipate Evloev to mix things up and do the same. He landed 9 takedowns combined in his two fights against Barzola and Choi before his unanimous decision win against Mike Grundy.
Evloev has a Greco-Roman wrestling base.
Landwehr talks a lot inside the cage, though I don't believe this will affect Evloev in any manner.
BET: Click here to continue

PRELIMS WAGERS

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: GIAN VILLANTE 17-12 VS JAKE COLLIER 11-5

Villante moved back up to heavyweight in his last fight, and he almost snuck a victory against a much bigger Maurice Greene until Greene choked him out from the bottom.
Regardless of weight class, Villante is just 2-5 in his last 7 fights.
Collier also moved up to heavyweight recently and lost his UFC HW debut to Tom Aspinall back in July, his first fight in 3 years overall.
Villante fights have gone to the 3rd round in 6 of his last 7.
Villante typically fights to his opponent's level and has gone to a split decision on 6 occasions.
Villante gets knocked down to the mat on average .51 times per 15 minutes.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: MATT WIMAN 16-9 VS JORDAN LEAVITT 7-0

Wiman hasn't won a fight since 2014.
Leavitt will be making his UFC debut after winning a contract in August on DWCS.
Leavitt is 12 years younger than Wiman.
Wiman is just 1-3 against southpaws.
Five of Leavitt's seven wins have come by way of submission, while after 25 fights, Wiman has never lost in that fashion.
BET: Click here to continue

FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: JIMMY FLICK 15-5 VS CODY DURDEN 11-2-1

Durden is dropping down from 135lb for this fight.
Though 11-2-1 overall, Durden is 0-1 at this weight.
Flick will be making his UFC debut after an impressive win on DWCS back in September.
Flick has won via submission in 13 of his 15 victories.
BET: Click here to continue

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: ILIA TOPURIA 9-0 VS DAMON JACKSON 18-3-1

Topuria comes in undefeated overall and will be making his debut on US soil.
Topuria landed 5 takedowns against a very crafty Youssef Zalal and won via unanimous decision in his UFC debut.
Jackson has below average takedown defense. (35%)
In what looks to be a grappling fest, 21 of the two fighters combined 27 wins have come by way of submission.
Topuria is 9 years younger than Jackson.
BET: Click here to continue

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: GABRIEL BENITEZ 21-8 VS JUSTIN JAYNES 16-5

Janes is making his return to lightweight after losing his last fight at 145 to Gavin Tucker.
Bout was originally scheduled for November, but Benitez tested positive for Covid.
Benitez is 13-3 overall at this weight and 9-1 in his last 10.
Jaynes is a very fast starter, and his last 5 wins have come in the 1st round.

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: JOSE QUINONEZ 8-4 VS LOUIS SMOLKA 16-7

Smolka has only been finished 3 times, all by round 1 submission.
Quinonez has just 1 submission win, and it occurred 5 years ago.
Quinonez's last 4 wins have been via decision. He's 1-2 in his last 3 fights and was finished by both Sean O'Malley (RD1KO) and Nathaniel Wood (RD2SUB).
Win or lose, Smolka's last 7 fights have all ended inside the distance.
No fighter Quinonez has beat in the UFC is still with the org.
BET: Click here to continue

FULL CARD PREDICTIONS & BET CONFIDENCE RANKING

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!

See all of the moneylines at DraftKings Sportsbook!

UFC Fight Night DFS Plays & Strategies

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five-round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Don't get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You'd be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here's my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC FIGHT NIGHT. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

Another angle is the implied probability a fighter is likely to lose early on in the fight and roster his opponent. For example, oddsmakers have John Allan roughly a 1 in 4 chance to get stopped in the very first round. That alone is 90 points for his opponent Roman Dolidze.

UFC 255 DFS Recommendations

Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
Fights projected to NOT go to a decision: Click here to continue
As usual, take a look at the main event with five rounds to score. Both fighters are in consideration at this price.

Good luck, everyone, and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.