Super Bowl LV Betting Odds and Line Movement: What are Bettors Targeting in Early Wagering?
The best betting time of the entire NFL season has finally arrived as sportsbooks around the country have released their packets of Super Bowl Proposition wagers. Historically, Proposition bets make up nearly 60-percent or more of the entire handle on the Super Bowl. Think about that! The game itself only witnesses 40-percent or more of spread or total attention, with sports bettors instead allured by wagers ranging from the final time of the national anthem, to the actual color of the final Gatorade bath! There are literally over 1,000 proposition wagers being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook on Super Bowl LV.
The sharp information from Vegas Whispers, produced another profitable NFL betting campaign - finishing the regular season with a record of 68-47-1 ATS. Including the playoffs, the information from Sin City has a solid record of 71-53-1 ATS. The betting plays, supplied by Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo, involve plays from the NFL, NCAA basketball and college football, NHL and MLB wagering. Be sure to be on the look-out for the Vegas Whispers Super Bowl sharp player proposition wagers later this week as we head up to kickoff on Sunday!
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Super Bowl LV Opening Odds
Kansas City (15-2 SU, 7-10 ATS) vs Tampa Bay (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS)
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (+143) | Kansas City: (-162)
Spread: TB: +3 (-105) | KC: -3 (-117)
Total: 56.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 56.5 (-110)
Game Info: February 7, 2020 6:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT | CBS
According to my sources in Vegas, we are witnessing reverse steam in early wagering on Super Bowl LV. Despite nearly 73-percent of money being wagered on Kansas City - the oddsmakers have adjusted the line in the opposite direction of total money moving the Chiefs from 3.5-point favorites down to only 3-point favorites. The same action is being witnessed in the total market where nearly 77-percent of the money has arrived on the over - which soared as high as 57.5 in Vegas - only to now see a number of 56.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. This could all easily change once we arrive at kickoff on Sunday.
Let’s dive into the proposition wagers that have seen the most early action!
Super Bowl MVP Market
The MVP proposition market is always popular and this year is proving to be no different. In Vegas, you could initially find Kansas City star tight end Travis Kelce at odds of +1600 and speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill around +2000. After one week we have seen significant movement on both players and this was something that myself and colleagues Bill Enright and Corey Parson discussed as a strong possibility last Wednesday on the Bull Market Fantasy podcast. Around some shops in Vegas they are now both less than 9/1, while DraftKings Sportsbook are offering Hill at +1200 and Kelce at +1300.
Since 2000, quarterbacks have been named the MVP of the Super Bowl in 13 of the last 21 games (62%). Overall, signal-callers have won the award in 30 of the 54 Super Bowls. This is obviously why the two favorites in the market are Patrick Mahomes (-106) and Tom Brady (+210). Brady has won the award four times with Mahomes earning his first nod last year in the Chiefs 31-20 win over San Francisco.
Position Total
- Quarterback 30
- Running back 7
- Wide receiver 7
- Linebacker 4
- Defensive end 2
- Safety 2
- Cornerback 1
- Defensive tackle 1
- Kick returner/punt returner 1
Brady UNDER 0.5 rushing yards (-165)
There has been significant wagers placed on Tom Brady’s total rushing yards (0.5) - with strong attention to the ‘Under” which is now juiced to odds of -165. Looking back, Brady's rushing output in his previous nine Super Bowl appearances was: 3, 12, -1, 0, 0, -3, 15, 6 and -2. Therefore, Brady has gone under 0.5 rushing yards in five of nine (56%) previous Super Bowl appearances. In 2020, Brady has not run often as a member of the Buccaneers; going under 0.5 rushing yards in 12 of 16 (75%) games. We should also highlight that the yes on “kneel down” is a -200 prohibitive favorite to be the ‘final play of the game’ with the no currently returning +159 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Note: Should Tampa Bay win Super Bowl LV and go into a victory formation, kneel downs count as “negative yards” in rushing totals.
Team To Record First Sack (Tampa Bay -155)
The possibility the Chiefs could experience issues with their blitz protection, due to the loss of star tackle Eric Fisher, is not going unnoticed by bettors. Fisher will miss Super Bowl LV after tearing his Achilles tendon in the AFC championship win over the Buffalo Bills. The former No. 1 overall draft pick was a vital part of protecting Mahomes while being instrumental in the team’s ability to post prolific offensive numbers both in the air and on the ground.
Tampa Bay has a strong defensive line led by Jason-Pierre Paul and Shaquil Barrett. Bettors are backing that the Buccaneers (-155), whose defense has forced seven turnovers and recorded seven sacks in three playoff wins, will record the first sack in Super Bowl LV. In the NFC Championship game Tampa Bay sacked Aaron Rodgers five times - led by Barrett who sacked the likely 2020 League MVP three times.
Total Punts In Game (6.5) UNDER -143
Early action from bettors has also focused on the punting game (or lack thereof) in Super Bowl LV. Bettors are banking on two teams with strong offenses establishing long drives that will result in long scoring drives as the line for total punts (6.5) which opened at odds of -110 now stands with juice of -143 to the ‘Under.' In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs did not attempt a punt while in their Divisional win over Cleveland punter Tommy Townsend only attempted one punt.
On the side of the ball, Tampa Bay only recorded two punts in the NFC Championship Game, after posting four against New Orleans in the Divisional Round and three against Washington in the wildcard round. Bettors are banking on Kansas City and Tampa Bay moving the ball efficiently combined with aggressive play-calling that could lead to more fourth-down attempts further limiting the overall punts in Super Bowl LV.
Player to have Most Receiving Yards (L. Fournette -152 vs C. Edwards-Helaire)
In the postseason, Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette has emerged as the lead back in the club’s ground attack. As a result of the extra reps, he has produced increased production in the passing game, thus becoming a solid check down option for Brady in the postseason. The veteran back has hauled in 14 of 17 targets for 102 receiving yards and a touchdown in the team’s three playoff wins. Bettors are wagering that Fournette (-152) will continue to flourish in the passing game and are backing that he will outproduce Kansas City’s rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+122) with more receiving yards in their head-to-head matchup prop. The talented first round draft pick out of LSU was an integral part of Kansas City's success in the early part of the season but injuries have derailed his production. In four of his last five games (including the AFC Championship game) he has been a non-factor in the passing game posting less than eight receiving yards.
Upon a deeper dive, we discover that the powerful Edwards-Helaire has struggled to make an impact in the passing games in his rookie campaign posting one or fewer receptions in six of 13 games overall. This has led bettors to heavily back Fournette, expecting both those trends to continue in Super Bowl LV.
Be sure to be on the look-out for the Vegas Whispers Super Bowl sharp player proposition wagers later this week as we head up to kickoff on Sunday!
