I hope you all had a good day yesterday betting on the Super Bowl. I had a pretty decent day myself; my props went well, and the under hit with no problem. It is time to turn our attention back to the NBA. There are eight games on the slate, so we're looking at plenty of action.
Tonight in the Western Conference, there are three teams that I would consider trendy underdogs. You all know how much I love to fade trendy dogs but not here. I just don't see it with these three favorites. The Warriors are a trendy dog in San Antonio. Normally this would be a spot for me to fade Golden State, but without LaMarcus Aldridge in the lineup, I can't get behind the Spurs.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are another underdog that bettors are backing. The Timberwolves have been horrible but so have the Dallas Mavericks. Rick Carlisle's team only has three home wins. If you have the stones to lay 10 points with Dallas, go right ahead.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are another popular dog tonight vs. the Lakers. I can dig why bettors like the Thunder. OKC is 8-3 ATS on the road, while the Lakers are only 4-6 ATS at Staples. Anthony Davis is out for the Lakers, which makes this even more attractive. The problem is the Thunder have injury concerns of their own: Isaiah Roby and Theo Maledon are out.
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NBA Betting Plays - Monday, February 8th
ODDS AVAILABLE AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Toronto Raptors vs. Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5) Total: 223.5
I'm old enough to remember when the Raptors were an auto fade for me on a nightly basis. There were some good nights and bad nights, but now the Raptors are playing pretty good basketball. Toronto has won three of their last four games while their opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies, have lost three in a row. The opening total was 223.5, that where it stands at most sportsbooks right now, but we are starting to see some 223's pop up in some shops. The Raptors are 8-4 to the over as a road team, while the Grizzlies are 2-7 to the over as a home team. When you dig a little deeper, what you find is that in games in which the Raptors are a road favorite, the over has cashed 83% of the time. The Grizzlies are an under team at home, but they have played very poorly on defense during their current losing streak.
The Pick: Over 223.5
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets (+4) Total: 233.5
The nice high total on this game lets us know that this should be one of the most entertaining games of the night. The Bucks are rolling right now. They have won four straight and seem to be hitting their regular season stride. The Nuggets are coming off back-to-back road losses, but they will be a tough matchup in Denver. This game opened up with a total of 229. It has since been bet up to 233.5. I'm not particularly eager to bet games that have steamed this far in any direction. Why bet the worst of the number? But in this case, I'm going to take into account the fact that the Bucks go over this number quite frequently. On eight occasions this season, Milwaukee has played in a game with a total between 229 and 235. They are 6-2 to the over in those contests. As long as Jamal Murray suits up for the Nuggets, bet the over.
The Pick: Over 233.5
Overall Record: 25-29 ATS