MLB World Series Game 4 Betting Primer: Lines, Odds and Predictions
Well, Game 3 of the World Series was thrilling—if you were a Braves backer, or if you had the under 8.5 run total. Thrilling.
For Astros and over bettors, along with fans who enjoy hits and runs, it was agonizing.
Houston is turning to Zack Greinke (0-0. 7.71 postseason ERA) to start Game 4, and Atlanta is starting Dylan Lee. Could this spell more runs and a bit more drama in terms of bets, props—and the Astros' batters—hitting?
Dave Scipione takes the place of Jen Piacenti and joins Matthew Ehalt in surveying the odds and player props to target for Game 4.
Here are the picks!
Head over to SI Sportsbook for the latest odds.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
MONEYLINE: BRAVES (-110), ASTROS (-110)
Ehalt: There's nothing more exciting than a bullpen game (sarcasm).
Greinke may be the official Houston starter, but he's not pitching deep into this game considering he's thrown a total of 2 1/3 innings in the postseason.
The key for Houston could be Christian Javier, who has dominated opponents this postseason. He's tossed nine scoreless innings spanning three outings, allowing just four hits. He recorded four outs in Houston's Game 2 victory.
Atlanta is starting lefty Dylan Lee to begin this bullpen game, but the problem for the Braves is their potential "bulk" relievers do not inspire confidence. Drew Smyly pitched O.K. against the Dodgers in the NLCS, but the Astros crush lefties. Kyle Wright spent almost all of the season in the minors due to ineffectiveness. Tucker Davidson, replacing Charlie Morton, has made all of four career starts.
Ultimately, I trust Javier and Houston's "bulk" more than Atlanta's. Atlanta's back-end guys have pitched great, but they may not have a lead to protect. I'm taking the Astros.
Scipione: I remember selecting Zack Greinke in a fantasy draft back in college. That was over fifteen years ago. Do I have confidence in him to stifle some of the Braves' bats? In Game 4 of the World Series—I do.
I like Houston to jump out to an early lead and for Greinke to do his part to keep it.
It's a pivotal game and I trust the veteran here, along with the Astros' hitters to be patient and string together some hits. This series has a seven-game feel to it and I like Houston to knot this thing at 2-2 on Saturday.
RUN LINE: ASTROS -1.5 (+155); BRAVES +1.5 (-188)
Ehalt: The team that has won each game has won has also won on the run line. I'm getting plus-odds to take the Astros and that's how we'll bet this one.
Scipione: This is a game where the Astros pile it on and allow you to get on with your Saturday evening in relative comfort, knowing that you'll clear a win by two or more runs. With the plus-odds, it also allows you to look at a possible live hedge opportunity if the Astros jump out early.
OVER/UNDER: 8.5; OVER (-110), UNDER (-110)
Ehalt: The under hit in Games 1 and 3. The over hit in Game 4.
I've bet the over in all three games and it's backfired twice. I don't trust Atlanta's "bulk" relievers, and Greinke isn't the same ace-level pitcher anymore.
Let's follow the every-other-game trend here and bank on having the first high-scoring game of the series. These offenses are too good to not score in a bullpen game—we hope! Let's go with the over (again).
Scipione: I like Ehalt's thinking here, and I'm always for jumping on the bandwagon when it comes to betting an over as opposed to an under.
With no horse in this race (Go Guardians!), I am looking for runs, as many as possible. In this case, let's just hope the Astros have two or more than the Braves at the end—but I'll jump on that over.
MONEYLINE AFTER 5: BRAVES (-118); ASTROS (-110)
Ehalt: The team that has won each game in this series has led after five innings.
I like Houston to win, and also like Houston's odds of teeing off on Atlanta's secondary relievers more than I do of the Braves having success against Javier (should he pitch).
We'll follow the trend and take the Astros.
Scipione: So, one of my favorite bets in any sport—any sport, is tied at half, and either team to win (or go into extra time). It's two bets, yes, but it's a lot of fun and one of the bets I love for baseball—mainly for games like this.
Now, I have bet for the game to be tied after the first five innings for the previous three games and have missed all three times.
Have I learned my lesson?
Yes. I am taking the Astros and I am hoping that this is just one of those games where it's simple math. Look up at the score, see a big number from Houston, and smile.
PLAYER PROP SELECTION
Ehalt: Carlos Correa has been quite in the Fall Classic, notching just one hit in his 10 at-bats. He's too good of a player to not leave his mark, owning a career .507 slugging percentage and 18 homers spanning 76 career postseason games.
I believe he has a big game and I like his anytime home run odds of +420. If he faces Smyly, who is prone to serving up dingers, Correa can leave the yard. It may not be as dramatic as his homer in Game 1 of the ALCS, but we don't win extra money for style.
Scipione: I am going to go ahead and take Alex Bregman to have two or more hits at +240, and also throw a little extra on Bregman to have three-plus hits at +1300. Like with Greinke, if the Astros are going to win Game 4 the veteran players will have a lot to do with it.
With these bets you want a player who will see at least three or more at-bats and Bregman fits that profile.
MLB World Series odds and more at SI Sportsbook
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