NFL Week 14 Bad Beats and Big Payouts: Favorites Dominated on Sunday
The Chalk Strikes Back.
The much-maligned favorites retaliated Sunday with a beatdown of the underdogs, posting a 11-1 Straight-Up (SU) and 10-2 Against The Spread record. Only the Panthers failed to win and cover, and the Browns also failed to lay three points.
Sunday's action featured some wild, last-minute scores and plays that affected bets, including Tampa Bay's walk-off win against the Bills.
Let's get to the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 14 betting.
Check Monday's Line for Rams-Cardinals
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD
Following Fabiano's advice
Two boosted parlays at SI Sportsbook cashed that featured players SI Fantasy expert Michael Fabiano predicted would have good weeks.
Running backs Javonte Williams and Chuba Hubbard each scored to cash at +350 odds, boosted from +295. Tight ends Dawson Knox catching 4+ passes and Cole Kmet tallying 3+ catches also cashed at +210 odds, boosted from +160.
Fantasy projections and betting lines can be very helpful when making decisions.
The Favorites Deliver
The favorites going 11-1 SU is quite impressive, but the 10-2 ATS record is even more jaw-dropping considering six teams covered spreads of at least nine points.
The Seahawks (-9), Titans (-9.5), Chiefs (-9.5), Broncos (-12.5), Chargers (-9) and Packers (-11) each defeated lesser opponents.
The SU and ATS records would have been identical had the Browns—who we will discuss in the bad section—not allowed two late scores.
The underdogs still hold the season lead.
Over and Over
Betting the over also delivered bettors a profitable day with nine of the 12 games going over their projections.
Only the Titans-Jags (as our Will Laws predicted), Saints-Jets (which we will address shortly) and Bengals-49ers (which missed by one point) did not go over.
Four of the five late games hit the over, including the day's highest projection, Bills-Buccaneers, which topped 53 points.
One Yard Short
While we just touted the over, Saints-Jets had all the making of a game in which to target the under. The Saints' offense isn't good, and the Jets are the Jets.
The under on 41.5 points seemed like a given when the teams combined for 32 points with less than four minutes to go, but the Jets decided to Jets and gave up a long touchdown run to Taysom Hill to push the total to 39 points.
Then the Jets did the whole garbage time thing, and the game ended with Zach Wilson being tackled at the 1-yard line. Under secured.
Phew.
The Saints covering their 5.5-point spread also rewarded bettors who jumped on this juicy teaser parlay at boosted +450 odds (up from +400) from SI Sportsbook: Saints (-2.5), Cowboys (-1.5), Chiefs (-5.5) and Seahawks (-4.5) all to cover.
Walk it Off
Buccaneers backers loved the way Sunday's game ended -- especially if they hopped on a boosted parlay at SI Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay seemed set to easily cover the 3.5-point spread when it took a 27-10 lead with less than 12 minutes remaining, but the Buccaneers allowed a 17-0 run to end the game that forced overtime. A late stand prevented an outright loss.
After stopping the Bills to start overtime, the Buccaneers won on a walk-off touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Breshad Perriman that secured the cover.
The Buccaneers covering secured a boosted parlay at +650 odds—boosted from +600—that the Buccaneers (-3.5), Chargers (-9.5) and Broncos (-11.5) would all cover.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
What a Rush
Tom Brady isn't known for his running ability, but the G.O.A.T. showcased his wheels to the world Sunday with seven rushes for 16 yards.
Yes, the YPC may not be great, but all bettors cared about was his prop of 1.5 yards. He also cashed his anytime touchdown prop at +750 and cleared his passing yards, combined yards and completions props, and did not throw an interception.
Just Made It
We always love the props that just clear, and Cordarrelle Patterson just cleared his rushing yards prop Sunday. The Falcons' do-it-all-weapon tallied 58 rushing yards, barely topping his 57.5 yards projection. He also cashed his anytime TD prop at -110 odds.
Sunday Night Scoring
The Packers and Bears combined for 75 points, allowing for some props and an awesome parlay from SI Sportsbook to cash.
Those who figured Bears "owner" Aaron Rodgers would smash Chicago in his potential final divisional game against the Bears had to be tempted to bet at boosted +650 odds—up from +600—that Rodgers would toss 4+ touchdowns, the game would top the over/under of 43 and the Packers would cover the 11.5-point spread.
All three legs cashed, and the Packers are now an NFL best 11-2 ATS.
This game also rewarded those who bet Justin Fields would have a nice day, with the Bears' rookie quarterback hitting the over on his rushing yards, touchdown passes, passing yards, completions and even his interceptions prop at -213 odds.
Big Props Payouts
Here are some notable and profitable anytime touchdown props that cashed:
• Bears WR Damiere Byrd: +850 anytime TD
• Texans TE Brevin Jordan: +510 TD, +2800 first TD
• Giants FB Eli Penny: +1550 anytime TD
• Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam: +390 anytime TD, +2000 last TD
Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
THE BAD
48 Points Doesn't Deliver
A 48-point Chiefs outburst should have rewarded props bettors Sunday.
Nope.
Somehow, the Chiefs' offense can burn bettors even on days when it almost drops a 50-burger on a Raiders team that has no idea how to slow down Kansas City.
Here are the player prop unders that hit:
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Rushing yards
• RB Darrel Williams: Rushing yards, combined yards
• QB Patrick Mahomes: Passing yards, passing touchdowns, combined yards
• TE Travis Kelce: Receiving yards
• WR Tyreek Hill: Receiving yards
Edwards-Helaire and Williams at least found the end zone, but Kelce produced a dud on a day when fantasy managers needed their star tight end to deliver.
C for Can't Cover
The Browns failed to cover a 3-point spread against the Ravens despite:
- Facing backup quarterback Tyler Huntley for most of the game
- Leading by 15 entering the fourth quarter
Cleveland allowed two late touchdowns to blow the cover, and almost lost outright after allowing Baltimore to cover the onside kick.
Sure, moneyline bettors received a victory, but that's a tough ATS loss considering all the circumstances. The Browns did not score in the second half.
How do You Not Cover?
If Bears -11 backers were told before the game the Bears would
- Lead by 10 with two minutes left in the first half
- Score 30 points, they probably felt great!
And yet, the Bears still didn't cover! They lost, 45-30.
Chicago held a 24-14 lead with 1:54 left in the first half but allowed a late touchdown that killed some of the buzz, although a field goal made it 27-21 at the half.
The Bears' defense allowed a score on all four legitimate Green Bay possessions in the second half (kneel downs on the last drive don't count), and the Bears only mustered a field goal in the final 30 minutes. Chicago even drove to the Green Bay 24-yard line on its last drive, but Fields threw a second interception to blow the backdoor cover.
No Longer an Offensive Juggernaut
Despite the win, the Dallas offense is not performing as expected.
Dak Prescott failed to clear his passing yards, passing touchdowns and completions props in the 27-20 win and Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb both fell short of their receiving props. Cooper at least scored, while Lamb topped his receptions prop.
THE BAD
A Costly Kick
Those who backed Washington +6.5 against Dallas are absolutely sick today.
Washington battled back from a 24-0 deficit and cut the lead to 27-20 on a pick-6 with 4:24 remaining. All that stood between the over hitting and a Washington cover was the extra point. And, well, you obviously know what happened.
Brian Johnson missed the extra point. Neither team scored again.
The cover? Gone. The over? Gone.
Washington also burned prop bettors who took Antonio Gibson to top his rushing yards prop, and Terry McLaurin to top his receptions and receiving yards prop.
Shame, Carolina, Shame
The Panthers—as mentioned before—prevented the favorites from having a perfect moneyline day. Carolina lost to a mediocre Atlanta team at home as a 2.5-point favorite, despite scoring the game's first touchdowns.
The Panthers have massive issues at quarterback with Cam Newton being benched and their defense has been de-clawed.
Carolina's loss also burned those who took the boosted +450 odds—up from +400—that the Panthers, Chiefs, Cowboys and Browns would all win.
Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
What's Happening, D.K.?
D.K. Metcalf has regressed from a must-start fantasy superstar to a borderline flex player after posting a four-catch, 43-yard game Sunday against Houston.
Now, Metcalf did get hurt by a touchdown being called back, which factors in here since that could have changed everything. But this is a result business and Metcalf now has 17 catches for 173 yards and 0 touchdowns in his last five games.
Metcalf also burned bettors who jumped on a boosted parlay at boosted +290 odds that he would top 59 yards and Tee Higgins would hit the over on 69 yards.
Higgins did his part, while Metcalf produced another dud.
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