NCAA Men's College Basketball Bets: Auburn-Arkansas, Illinois-Purdue
Top-ranked Auburn takes the court Tuesday night against Arkansas and, in the Big Ten, No. 13 Illinois and No. 3 Purdue have a rematch in Indiana with first place on the line.
The stakes are getting increasingly high as we approach March and Kevin Sweeney joins me once again to make sense of this week’s top games.
Season record: 23-25
Guest pickers: 18-13-1
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John Bazemore/AP
No. 1 Auburn (22-1, 10-0 SEC) vs. Arkansas (18-5, 7-3)
Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Spread: Auburn -2 (-110) | Arkansas +2 (-118)
Over/Under: Under 151.5 (-110) | Over 151.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Auburn (-143) | Arkansas (+110)
Auburn’s perfect conference record was nearly spoiled by lowly Georgia over the weekend. The Tigers outlasted the Bulldogs, 74-72, in Athens, Ga., to extend their win streak to 19 games. Auburn has had quite a few close road games, including a one-point win against Missouri prior to the Georgia game and four-point wins against Alabama and St. Louis. Compare that to Auburn's almost 14-point scoring differential.
Jabari Smith, projected to go at the top of the first round of the upcoming NBA draft, leads the team in scoring at 15.3 PPG. He and Walker Kessler, a shot eraser who blocks more than four shots per game, control the paint. Auburn averages 80.3 PPG, the 17th-most in the country, and allows 66.4 PPG, just outside the top 100. Bruce Pearl’s squad ranks top 15 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies per KenPom.
Arkansas opened SEC play with three straight losses and has won every game since. The Razorbacks have the third-best record in the conference, behind only Auburn and Kentucky—AP Top-10 teams. Senior guard JD Notae is a big reason for the team’s recent success. He leads Arkansas in scoring (18.7 PPG) and fills up the stat sheet with his rebounding, assist and steals numbers.
Though the Razorbacks have put together an impressive run and record to date, they have only faced one ranked opponent: then-No. 12 LSU. Playing host to top-ranked Auburn will be Arkansas’ toughest challenge to date and its conference record doesn’t ease up down the stretch. Offensively and defensively, the Razorbacks are a hair behind the Tigers—they average 78.6 PPG and allow 68 PPG. Their efficiencies on KenPom are less favorable as well.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Auburn -2
Not only is Auburn the best team in college basketball, it also has one of the best ATS records in DI (17-6). Of course, the Tigers didn’t cover last time out in their scare against Georgia, but I think they put their close calls on the road behind them against a good Arkansas team. If Auburn was giving any more points on the road, I’d lean the Razorbacks’ way, but I think Smith and the Tigers offense can secure victory in a hostile environment and continue Auburn’s undefeated march through the SEC.
Over/Under Pick: Over 151.5
Both of these teams have shown off their scoring capabilities. Auburn went for 100 two games ago against Alabama and Arkansas scored 99 against Georgia last week. Neither defensive unit is particularly prone to being exploited—they both create turnovers at a high rate—but it’s hard to see this not being a high-scoring affair. The Tigers should get up into the 80s, as they’ve done in eight of 10 SEC games, and Arkansas shouldn’t be far behind in the high 70s at least to send this game over.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Arkansas +2
I don’t feel great about betting against Auburn, but this feels like the night for Arkansas to lock in its NCAA tournament bid with a signature win in front of a packed house at Bud Walton Arena. The Razorbacks have seemingly put early-season chemistry issues behind them and have been a different team since Eric Musselman moved guard Devo Davis into a bench role on Jan. 8. The Razorbacks are 8-1 since and have covered the spread in seven of nine games. In that time period, the Hogs have had the No. 3 defense in the country, per T-Rank. Expect them to get big stops and ride the highs of a great crowd over the finish line to pull the upset.
Over/Under Pick: Under 151.5
As mentioned above, Arkansas’ defense has been a monster lately. While the pace both teams play likely gets this game into the low 70s, I don’t think it gets above a 150 total. Arkansas may struggle to score at the rim with Walker Kessler’s presence down low, and this group isn’t a good enough three-point shooting team to overcome that and still score 75-plus. If the Razorback defense plays as well as it has of late, this one goes under and the Hogs will have a real chance to win the game.
Darron Cummings/AP
No. 13 Illinois (17-5, 10-2 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 Purdue (20-3, 9-3)
Time: 9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Illinois +6 (-118) | Purdue -6 (-110)
Over/Under: Under 146.5 (-110) | Over 146.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Illinois (+188) | Purdue (-250)
The Fighting Illini are winners of four in a row, including two victories against AP top-25 teams at home. Now, they face a Purdue team on the road that beat them at home in double overtime three weeks ago. Illinois owns the best record in the Big 10, but the Boilermakers can take it from them with a win.
Illinois star Kofi Cockburn had his worst game of the season against Purdue, scoring a season-low 10 points and fouling out. Since then, he turned in his best game of the season—a 37-point explosion against Wisconsin. He accounts for a huge chunk of the Fighting Illini’s 77.1 PPG and is assisted by Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier in the scoring department. Illinois is a typically stout defensive team, allowing just 65.5 PPG. Of course, they yielded a season-high 96 points to Purdue in their last meeting.
Purdue has strung together five wins in a row ahead of its clash with Illinois. A 4-3 start to conference play was overshadowed by this recent streak of dominance. The Boilermakers have scored 80 or more points in each game with Jaden Ivey largely leading the team offensively.
The Boilermakers average a whopping 84.5 PPG, fourth-most in the nation, and have the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Four players average 12 points or more, led by Ivey’s 17.3. Purdue is an excellent three-point shooting team as well, connecting on better than 41% of its three-point attempts as a team.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Illinois +6
I’m encouraged by how well Illinois played Purdue last time around despite Cockburn’s struggles. Illinois has survived low-scoring slugfests and ran away with blowout wins since these teams last played, exhibiting the Illini’s ability to win in a multitude of ways. Purdue is dominant at home, having lost one game in West Lafayette all season long, but Illinois is more than capable of keeping things close on the road. The Illini are fresh off a 17-point road victory over a good Indiana team (one that beat Illinois a few weeks ago). Cockburn and Co. will play the Boilermakers close.
Over/Under Pick: Under 146.5
This is a bit of a zag given how the last game between these teams went. A high-scoring game naturally favors Purdue, but Illinois has been able to slow things down in its last few games and still come away with victories. The Illini held three of their last four opponents below 60 points. Of course, those offenses weren’t as prolific as Purdue’s. Still, Illinois has one of the better three-point defenses in college basketball to counter the Boilermakers’ excellent shooting.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Purdue -6
Kofi Cockburn’s lone weakness is he doesn’t handle teams with elite size to match him. His game against the Boilermakers earlier this season was his worst of the season, fouling out in 22 minutes and scoring 10 points (3-9 shooting). If that’s how Cockburn was officiated at home, how will it be in the far less friendly confines of Mackey Arena? I worry that Cockburn gets in foul trouble again and can’t impact the game like usal. Plus, it’s hard to expect a similarly magical performance from Andre Curbelo that the sophomore PG produced in the first meeting. Purdue wins and covers.
Over/Under Pick: Over 146.5
Illinois, in particular, is going to try to slow the tempo down, but I’m not sure it will matter. Purdue still has the best offense in the sport, and the Boilers missed a lot of bunnies against the Illini the first time that likely will drop this time around. If Purdue slows down Cockburn, Illinois will resort to firing away from deep with Frazier, Plummer and its collection of role-player shooters. That could lead to some high variance, but I think the Illini will hit 10 threes and hang around.
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