March Madness Surprises: Eight Recent Runs That Paid Off for Bettors
You’ve probably already scoured the NCAA tournament's field of 68 in search of a tournament darling.
Could it be Creighton? Or Murray State? And we can never forget about Loyola Chicago and lovable Sister Jean, once again dancing in March.
When it comes to betting on the NCAA tournament, finding a sleeper is vital to the pursuit of profit. Hopefully, SI Betting’s consistent coverage of March Madness can help you find your team to bet on over the next few weeks. But before the tournament begins, let’s look back at the lower seeds who made deep runs the last few years.
Here are—oh boy, this is a mouthful—eight No. 8 seeds (or lower) that made it to the Elite Eight (or beyond) in the last eight years:
2021
Oregon State
Regular-Season Record: 14-12
Tournament Seed: 12
Tournament Finish: Elite Eight loss to No. 2 Houston
The Beavers went on a heater in the Pac-12 tournament last March to steal a bid and just kept on winning. They beat No. 5 Tennessee, 70-56, in the Round of 64 as an 8.5-point underdog. In the Round of 32, OSU took down No. 4 Oklahoma State and eventual No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham, 80-70. The Beavers were 6-point underdogs in that game. And in the Sweet 16, they were matched up against No. 8 Loyola Chicago and the Ramblers were 7-point favorites. Oregon State won that game, too, 65-58, to keep on marching. The run came to an end in the Elite Eight against No. 2 Houston when the Beavers fell, 67-61. But the party continued for OSU bettors: The 8-point spread was covered.
Final Tournament Tally: 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU
UCLA
Regular-Season Record: 17-8
Tournament Seed: 11
Tournament Finish: Final Four loss to No. 1 Gonzaga
The Bruins went on one of the most improbable runs ever a season ago. They played in the First Four and ended up reaching the Final Four. Oddly enough, they lost to Oregon State in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament, allowing the Beavers to make their deep run.
UCLA made it into the Round of 64 with an 86-60 victory against Michigan State in the First Four. The Spartans were 2.5-point favorites. The Bruins were matched up with No. 6 BYU in the Round of 64 and won, 73-62, as 3.5-point underdogs. The Round of 32 game against No. 14 Abilene Christian was the only game UCLA (-5.5) was favored in. The Bruins covered easily, winning 67-47. Pitted against No. 2 Alabama, they pulled away in overtime to win 88-78 as 7-point underdogs in the Sweet 16. The Elite Eight brought a 51-49 win over No. 1 Michigan, which was favored by 6.5 points. And in the Final Four, Jalen Suggs and No. 1 Gonzaga finally sent UCLA home in a 93-90 victory at the buzzer. The Bruins were 14.5-point underdogs in that nail-biter.
Final Tournament Tally: 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU
2020
No tournament due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
2019
No low seeds made runs to the Elite Eight.
2018
Kansas State
Regular-Season Record: 21-10
Tournament Seed: 9
Tournament Finish: Elite Eight loss to No. 11 Loyola Chicago
The Wildcats were 1-point underdogs in an 8-9 matchup against Creighton in the opening round. They covered that with room to spare, winning 69-59 to move on. In the Round of 32, Kansas State was a 10-point favorite against No. 16 UMBC, which was fresh off an historic win over No. 1 Virginia. The Wildcats kept moving with a 50-43 victory but failed to cover. No. 5 Kentucky was a 5-point favorite against Kansas State, which won outright, 61-58, to advance. In the Elite Eight against No. 11 Loyola Chicago—which we’ll be getting to in a moment—the Wildcats lost a pick ‘em, 78-62. K-State wasn’t as profitable as some other teams to make deep runs. Being pitted against No. 16 and No. 11 seeds along the way may have played a role in that, though.
Final Tournament Tally: 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU
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Loyola Chicago
Regular-Season Record: 25-5
Tournament Seed: 11
Tournament Finish: Final Four loss to No. 3 Michigan
The Ramblers started the 2018 tournament with a bang. Matched up with No. 6 Miami, Loyola Chicago walked off on a Donte Ingram game-winning three-pointer. The final tally was 64-62, Ramblers, and they covered as 1.5-point underdogs. The Round of 32 game was similarly close against No. 3 Tennessee. And once again, Loyola Chicago came out on top. This time it was a 63-62 win as 5-point underdogs. The Sweet 16 brought on No. 7 Nevada and the Wolf Pack was favored by 1.5 points. The Ramblers won another close one, 69-68, to keep on dancing. In the Elite Eight, there was never a doubt against No. 9 Kansas State. Loyola Chicago won big in a pick ‘em, 78-62. The run ended in the Final Four against No. 3 Michigan. The Wolverines won, 69-57, and covered the 5.5-point spread.
Final Tournament Tally: 4-1 ATS, 4-1 SU
Florida State
Regular-Season Record: 20-10
Tournament Seed: 9
Tournament Finish: Elite Eight loss to No. 3 Michigan
After limping into the postseason, FSU was favored by 1.5 points in its 8-9 matchup with Missouri in the Round of 64 and began its deep run with a comfortable win. The Seminoles defeated the Tigers, 67-54. Florida State drew the 1 seed in its region–Xavier–in the Round of 32, and entered the game as a 6-point underdog. The run continued with an upset of the Musketeers, 75-70. In the Sweet 16, FSU bucked the odds again, defeating No. 4 Gonzaga, 75-60, as 5.5-point underdogs. The Seminoles’ run came to an end in the Elite Eight against No.3 Michigan. But they continued to pay off for bettors. The Wolverines won, 58-54, and Florida State narrowly covered as 4.5-point underdogs.
Final Tournament Tally: 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU
2017
Xavier
Regular-Season Record: 19-12
Tournament Seed: 11
Tournament Finish: Elite Eight loss to No. 1 Gonzaga
The Musketeers were matched up with No. 6 Maryland in the Round of 64. The Terrapins were 2-point favorites, but Xavier scored a convincing upset, 76-65. The underdog run continued against No. 3 Florida State. The Musketeers got 5.5 points against the Seminoles but didn’t need it—they toppled FSU, 91-66. The Sweet 16 brought a battle with No. 2 Arizona. Xavier’s magical run continued against the Wildcats, who were giving 7.5 points but fell in a close one, 73-71. Xavier’s run of winning—and covering—ended in the Elite Eight. No. 1 Gonzaga defeated the Musketeers, 83-59, and covered the 8-point spread.
Final Tournament Tally: 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU
2016
Syracuse
Regular-Season Record: 19-12
Tournament Seed: 10
Tournament Finish: Final Four loss to No. 1 North Carolina
The Orange limped into the tournament on a three-game losing streak and subpar record. But as Syracuse is known to do when the calendar flips to March, it turned things on and went on a run. The Round of 64 matchup against No. 7 Dayton pegged the Orange as 1-point underdogs. They won outright and convincingly, 70-51. The Round of 32 brought an easier opponent: No. 15 Middle Tennessee State. Syracuse was favored by 6 points and covered easily, winning 75-50. In the Sweet 16, the Orange drew No. 11 Gonzaga in a rare 10-11 game and the Bulldogs were favored by 5 points. Syracuse’s run continued with a 63-60 win. No. 1 Virginia stood in their way to make it out of the Midwest. The Cavaliers were installed as 8-point favorites. The Orange kept on dancing, though, winning their region with a 68-62 victory. They were rewarded with another matchup against a No. 1 seed: North Carolina. That Final Four game saw the Tar Heels favored by 9.5 points and they covered, 83-66. UNC ended up the runner-up for the national championship, but Syracuse endeared itself to bettors everywhere.
Final Tournament Tally: 4-1 ATS; 4-1 SU
2015
No low seeds made runs to the Elite Eight.
2014
Dayton
Regular-Season Record: 22-9
Tournament Seed: 11
Tournament Finish: Elite Eight loss to No. 1 Florida
The Flyers drew No. 6 Ohio State in the Round of 64 and the Buckeyes were giving 5 points. Dayton scored a close victory in the first round over OSU, 60-59, beating its in-state rival. Things didn’t get easier in the Round of 32. Dayton drew No. 3 Syracuse, which was favored by 7, and escaped with a 55-53 victory. The Sweet 16 brought on No. 10 Stanford, a 3-point favorite over the Flyers. Dayton scored an 82-72 win and the dance continued. No. 1 Florida was too tall a task for the Flyers. Dayton was a 10-point underdog against the Gators and lost by exactly that, 62-52.
Final Tournament Tally: 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU
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