March Madness Final Four Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Kansas vs. Villanova
These teams are rather familiar. They're not as well-acquainted as their fellow Final Four participants, but No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Villanova have run into each other three times en route to national titles in the last 15 years.
In 2018, No. 2 Villanova beat No. 4 Kansas in the Final Four to advance to the national title game, which it won against No. 3 Michigan. And two years before that, No. 2 Villanova defeated No. 1 Kansas in the Sweet 16 a few rounds before its epic championship win against No. 1 North Carolina.
And all the way back in 2008, these programs met in the Sweet 16. No. 1 Kansas got by No. 12 Villanova before winning its most recent national title.
So, yeah, there's some history here.
Matt Ehalt and I made our picks for this game where the winner could once again be bound for a national championship.
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No. 1 Kansas (32-6) vs. No. 2 Villanova (30-7)
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Villanova +4.5 (-110) | Kansas -4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Villanova (+160) | Kansas (-200)
Over/Under: Over 133 (-110) | Under 1333 (-110)
Kansas’s Path
The Jayhawks demolished the No. 10 Hurricanes to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2018. Kansas erased a six-point halftime deficit and outscored Miami 47-15 over the final 20 minutes to score a signature 76-50 victory in the Elite Eight. In the two previous rounds, KU survived challenges from No. 4 Providence and No. 9 Creighton and did not necessarily look the part of a No. 1 seed.
But Kansas is now the last No. 1 seed standing and crucially got a good performance from Ochai Agbaji last time out—the Big 12 Player of the Year had been struggling in the tournament. Faced with the hot-shooting Hurricanes, their biggest test on defense in March, Kansas turned in a defensive masterpiece and held UM to just 50 points with a swarming defensive effort.
Villanova’s Path
The Wildcats have scored fewer and fewer points as the tournament has progressed. Accordingly, their defense has limited opponents to lesser scoring outputs, which culminated in a suffocating, hard-fought 50-44 win against No. 5 Houston in the Elite Eight. In its previous two games, Villanova knocked off No. 11 Michigan and No. 7 Ohio State, playing its signature brand of mistake-free basketball and lockdown defense.
The last two times Villanova made it this far, it finished the job. That goal will be more difficult to accomplish without Justin Moore. The team’s second-leading scorer tore his Achilles near the end of the Houston game. That puts additional pressure on Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels on offense and the entire team defensively.
David J. Phillip/AP
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Kansas -4.5
The Jayhawks are the better team—seeding, KenPom rankings, NBA talent; you name it. The better team doesn’t always win in March—just ask Kentucky. But this isn’t a David vs. Goliath matchup. This is a battle between two great teams that have seen each other before in this spot, and Villanova, without Moore, will be outmatched.
Kansas has a size advantage with rangy wings like Agbaji and Christian Braun and 6’8” Jalen Wilson, and 6’10” David McCormack. That puts pressure on Jermaine Samuels and Eric Dixon on the glass, who aren’t as big as Wilson and McCormack.
Villanova’s defense can still bother the Jayhawks and will likely hold them under their season average of 78.3 ppg (the point total suggests as much). The concern for the Wildcats will be putting up enough points to keep pace with KU. Wright’s team grades out well on offense but has managed just 99 combined points in its last two games. The Wildcats had their worst three-point shooting game against Houston of the tournament (5-21), while Gillespie’s sharp-shooting struggled (0-4 from three).
The Jayhawks, no matter their opponent, will get theirs. KU showed that in Big 12 play against top-flight defenses like Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. And Kansas hung 79 points on Creighton, which has the No. 20 KenPom defense. KU should limit a hobbled Villanova team on defense and get the best of a shorthanded defense on the other end, and exact revenge from the 2018 Final Four loss.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Villanova +4.5
Villanova is tough. The Wildcats don’t beat themselves. They force you to play clean, methodical basketball. Look at what they did to Houston.
I don’t believe Villanova will win this game, but I’m willing to bet that Villanova can keep this within four points even without Justin Moore. That extra half point is the difference here. I would have had a harder time had it been a four-point spread.
If Kansas comes out and plays like it did to end that game against Miami, it could be a rough day for Villanova. But Villanova isn’t Miami. Even with Moore sidelined, this team will defend well and make things difficult.
Let’s remember Kansas didn’t cover its previous two games (albeit larger spreads) against Providence and Creighton in the Sweet 16 and second round, respectively. This Jayhawks have not looked all that much like a 1-seed for most of the tournament.
My concern here is how Villanova will keep up with Kansas, which has scored at least 66 points in every game in the tournament and at least 76 points three times. Villanova only topped 80 points in its first-round game vs. Delaware.
The Wildcats, though, have held their last eight opponents all to 65 points or less. That will be a tough challenge against this Kansas team, but I think the Wildcats are game.
This bet is more of a “don’t get against Villanova” than believing Villanova will win the actual game or exploit some x’s and o’s strategy in this one. Jay Wright is as good a coach as there in the country. He’ll find a way to keep it close.
Villanova is also quite good at finding a way to limit the opposing team’s best player and surely will have a plan to contain Ochai Agbaji. I’m more concerned with Villanova’s offense—which isn’t the Villanova offense of old here—doing its part.
Let’s not forget Kansas was losing to Miami by six at halftime. While the better and healthier team, the Jayhawks aren’t an unbeatable machine.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 23-22–1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 19-30–1
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