NBA Western Conference Betting Preview: Suns Ready for Repeat Finals Appearance
The race at the top of the Eastern Conference standings drew plenty of attention as the season approached its conclusion, while the race out West was decided early.
That was because the Suns ran away with the best record and won the most games since the 2017-18 Rockets. The team with the next-best record, the Grizzlies, also resides in the Western Conference, as do the sixth-seeded Nuggets, led by the presumptuous back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokić.
After four of five NBA championships between 2014-18 went to West teams West, two of the last three titles went to East teams. The heaviest favorite to win the title at SI Sportsbook (Phoenix +275) hails from the West, and the field is stacked from the Suns all the way down to play-in tournament teams like the Clippers and Timberwolves.
Before the playoffs start Saturday, here’s the rundown on each top-seven team from the West that secured a postseason spot. Get their latest odds, who they’re playing and how they got to this point. We’ve already covered the Eastern Conference.
(The 8-seed is not included in this article because the Pelicans-Clippers will battle Friday for last playoff spot in the West and play the No. 1 Suns.)
Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
Brandon Dill/AP
1. Phoenix Suns (64-18)
Record since All-Star break: 16-8
Odds to win conference: +125 (Best)
Odds to win NBA title: +275 (Best)
First-round opponent: Clippers/Pelicans
Perhaps no Suns player earning even a podium finish for MVP is a testament to what Phoenix has been since coming up just short in the NBA Finals: the best team in the league. Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton all missed games in bunches this season. No matter—the Suns kept winning. They’re 11-6 without Paul, 8-4 sans Booker, their leading scorer (26.6 ppg), and 18-6 when Ayton is out.
That’s why Phoenix is far and away the best team in the NBA, even though it might not have the singular most valuable piece.
The Suns are the only team to cross the 60-win threshold and rank fifth in offensive rating rating, third in defensive rating and first in net rating. They are just as good at home in the desert (32-9) as they are outside of it (32-9). Phoenix is first in team field-goal percentage and top-10 in free-throw and three-point percentage.
Led by Paul’s league-best 10.8 assists per game, the team is among the best in basketball at distributing the ball and taking care of it. The Suns have the most wins and fewest losses against teams .500 or better (31-13) and similarly take care of business against the association’s sub.-500 squads (33-5).
Phoenix made it through what seemed like a more intimidating Western Conference gauntlet last season with little issue. This season, there’s no clear threat to the Suns making a second consecutive trip to the Finals. They’re healthy, they’re running it back with largely the same cast from a season ago (plus a few key depth additions) and they’re so far ahead of the rest of the NBA they can rest their stars as the season winds down and the team awaits its first-round opponent. The Suns are the safest bet to come out of the West since the late 2010s Warriors.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (56-26)
Record since All-Star break: 15-7
Odds to win conference: +550 (Third-best)
Odds to win title: +1400 (Tied seventh-best)
First-round opponent: Timberwolves—Tied season series, 2-2
The Grizzlies’ postseason viability depends on the health of a third-year player whom they’ve somehow managed to go 20-2 without. Ja Morant missed extended time with a knee injury but made a one-game return before the start of the playoffs. Memphis still rattled off win after win with Morant in street clothes for extended periods in December and March on their way to a surprise second-place finish.
Memphis largely ran it back with the same team that beat the Warriors in the play-in tournament last summer. Their only big addition was Steven Adams, who’s having a career year rebounding and passing. Other than that, the Grizzlies’ improvements on both sides of the ball can be chalked up to individual improvements from players like Morant, a heavy favorite for Most Improved Player, and Desmond Bane. Jaren Jackson Jr. had his healthiest year of his career and leads the NBA in blocks per game (2.3).
Only four teams have a better net rating than Memphis, which is No. 4 in offensive rating and No. 6 in defensive rating. Its defense is one spot ahead of where it finished last season while the offense moved up 11 spots. The Grizzlies also lead the league in rebounds per game and are second in points per game.
hey do have their fair share of weaknesses, though, chiefly free-throw and three-point shooting. Youth could also be seen as a knock on this team that began the season with the second-youngest average age in the league.
Still, this team has playoff experience and a budding superstar in Morant. Like the Heat, the Grizzlies are being disrespected in the odds relative to its record and it has reveled in proving people wrong. They are a solid choice to get to the conference finals, where they could challenge a Suns team they beat two of three times.
Cary Edmondson/USA Today network
3. Golden State Warriors (53-29)
Record since All-Star break: 11-12
Odds to win conference: +400 (Second-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +900 (Fifth-best)
First-round opponent: Nuggets—Lost season series, 1-3
Golden State opened up the season 18-2 with Klay Thompson still sidelined and Steph Curry looking like the league MVP. That furious pace slowed down as the season wore on and injuries knocked out Curry as well as Draymond Green for stretches. Thompson is healthy for the first time in two years, Jordan Poole made the leap and rookie Jonathan Kuminga is showing promise. This isn’t the 2017 Warriors, but Golden State is having its best season since 2018-19 and is a very solid squad.
The Warriors have usually been solid on defense under Steve Kerr, but the disparity between its offense and defense is rarely this drastic. Golden State ranks second in defensive rating and 16th in offensive rating. Curry, by his astronomical standards, is having the worst three-point shooting season of his career.
Poole and Andrew Wiggins scoring help during a “down” year for Curry but the Dubs are a defense-first team. The Warriors rely heavily on Kevon Looney, who can’t hold up against Western Conference bigs, because 2020 second-overall pick James Wiseman hasn’t played this season. Green and Otto Porter Jr. solidify the backcourt.
Chemistry surely won’t be an issue for a trio as well acquainted as Curry, Thompson and Green are, but it’s worth noting they’ve shared the court for a total of 11 minutes this season. A healthy Golden State will be a tough out. Health is the operative term here being that Curry hasn’t played since March 16 and Green and Thompson both missed plenty of time. Still Kerr and the Big 3 have been here before, plenty of times.
Remember: This is the team that made back-to-back Finals in the mid-2010s before Kevin Durant arrived.
4. Dallas Mavericks (52-30)
Record since All-Star break: 17-6
Odds to win conference: +1000 (tied fourth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +2200 (Tied ninth-best)
First-round opponent: Jazz—Tied season series, 2-2
Dallas went from a top-10 offense with a putrid defense to a top-10 defense with a league-average offense led by one Luka Doncic. Thanks to their change in identity under coach Jason Kidd, the Mavericks put together their best season since 2010-11 when Kidd played for the team and helped them win their last championship.
Swapping Kristaps Porzingis for Spencer Dinwiddie at the trade deadline has been a boon for Dallas. Since joining the Mavericks, Dinwiddie is averaging close to 16 ppg and shooting nearly 50% from the field and 40% from three. He fits in well with the fleet of wings that complement the historically ball-dominant Doncic. Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith all let three three-pointers fly. Even center Maxi Kleber hoists his fair share of shots from outside, while Doncic and Jalen Brunson orchestrate the offense.
Doncic’s defense took a step forward this season and after a slow start, his already-elite offensive game reached new heights. He set a new career-high 51 points in February against and followed it up with 45 points the next game and 49 two games later. However, he injured his calf in the season finale and there’s a chance he’s not ready for Game 1 of the first round against the Jazz on Saturday.
Dallas has not made it out of the first round in more than a decade. The Mavericks fell short two seasons in a row in the first round against the Clippers. They avoid their L.A. nemesis for now and have the chance to finally break through with a new defensive identity and their singular superstar—if he’s healthy enough to shoulder the load.
Dallas was 8-9 without Doncic this season. With Brunson at point guard, the team can maybe skate by for a game or two while his calf recovers, but any investment in the Mavericks is one in Doncic.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
5. Utah Jazz (49-33)
Record since All-Star break: 13-11
Odds to win conference: +1000 (Tied fourth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +2200 (Tied ninth-best)
First-round opponent: Mavericks—Tied season series, 2-2
Utah’s defense is not on par with what’s been expected out of Salt Lake City in recent years. The Jazz offense, though, is tops in the NBA. They lead the NBA in offensive rating and are seventh in points per game while their defensive rating is No. 10. There’s speculation that this could be the last time this version of the team runs it back after four years of the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert partnership has resulted in just two playoff series wins. Both homegrown stars are having career years—Gobert is averaging career highs in rebounds (which he leads the league in) and points while Mitchell is shooting the ball more often without sacrificing much efficiency.
Going all in on offense may be for the best after years of having a top-flight defense proved fruitless. The Jazz hit 14.5 three-pointers per game, the second-most in the NBA, while shooting at a respectable clip. Oddly enough, Utah’s stellar offense is in the bottom five in the league in assists per game and doesn’t isolate at even a league average rate. Losing Joe Ingles to injury and then trade hurt the Jazz, but they replaced him with Nickeill Alexander-Walker, whose minutes have been inconsistent. They also have a handful of capable scorers (and shooters) beyond Mitchell in Bojan Bogdanović and Jordan Clarkson, last year’s Sixth Man of the Year.
Stretches of the season have gone poorly for Utah with two separate five-game losing streaks since late January. The Jazz, however, are healthy and seem to have righted the ship heading into the postseason. They also have the most collective playoff experience of any team in the conference other than the Warriors. That matters in April and into May. The future of the Mitchell-Gobert partnership may depend on how this run goes after three series wins to show for in the last five seasons. No pressure.
Utah could make it out of the first round, especially if Doncic’s injury is serious, but a second-round matchup with Phoenix scares me off any futures bets.
6. Denver Nuggets (48-34)
Record since All-Star break: 15-9
Odds to win conference: +1100 (Sixth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +2200 (Tied ninth-best)
First-round opponent: Warriors—Won season series, 3-1
Denver avoided falling into the play-in tournament thanks to the play of MVP favorite Nikola Jokić. The Nuggets got nine games out of Michael Porter Jr. and none from point guard Jamal Murray this season. Rather, Jokić carried an All-Star-less cast back to the postseason. Denver’s most used lineup this season consisted of Jokic, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris and Jeff Green.
Jokić is much-improved on defense, but the Nuggets primary strength is their offense, where Jokić is uniquely unstoppable. He’s posting numbers never seen before and is averaging a career-best 27.1 ppg on fewer shots per game than he took a season ago. Jokić also ranks top 10 in the league in points, rebounds and assists. He is the offense.
A lack of three-point shooting may hurt the team in the postseason but the Nuggets are among the league’s best at passing and have the second-highest field-goal percentage.
The possibility of a Murray return seems less and less likely as each day passes and the door seems to be closing on a Porter comeback as well. If anyone can carry this crew through a round or two in the playoffs, it’s Jokić. I’d be wary of throwing all of my chips in with the Nuggets. And for how incredible Jokić was, the last time an MVP winner also won Finals MVP was when LeBron James did so in 2013.
Andy Clayton-King/AP
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
Record since All-Star break: 15-8
Odds to win conference: +2500 (Eighth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +7000 (Fourteenth-best)
First-round opponent: Grizzlies—Tied season series, 2-2
Minnesota made massive improvements on both sides of the ball this season. The Timberwolves’ offensive rating jumped up from 25th to seventh and their defensive rating went from 28th to 13th. That’s how they ended their three-year playoff drought.
Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell each shot less and became more efficient scorers in the process, which freed up more shots for budding star Anthony Edwards. No team shoots more three-pointers than Minnesota (41.3) and no team makes more (14.8). The T-Wolves Big 3 can all shoot, as can Malik Beasley and Jaylen Nowell.
The high frequency of attempts and makes from three-point land contributes to the team’s league-leading 115.9 ppg mark. The Timberwolves commit the second-most fouls per game in the NBA and rank outside the top 10 in field goal, three-point and free-throw percentage. They’re also bottom 10 in turnovers per game and Towns coughs up the ball at one of the highest rates in basketball.
Minnesota is lacking playoff experience as a whole. Towns and Russell each played in one series a few seasons ago, Edwards has never been and coach Chris Finch is in his first full season as a head coach. The emotional leader of this team, Patrick Beverly, has made his fair share of postseason runs.
The Timberwolves will lean on their veteran spark plug, who was instrumental in helping to turn this team around. There’s a reason the odds drop off from Denver to Minnesota is so drastic. Getting here was a step, a big one at that, but this team doesn’t seem ready to make a run or even push the Grizzlies to seven games just yet.
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