NBA Playoffs First-Round Series Length Betting Preview: Bucks Sweep, Nets-Celtics goes Seven
The NBA playoffs officially begin Saturday at 1 p.m. ET when the Jazz and Mavericks tip off in Dallas. They’ll go until late June when another champion is crowned in the first full, on-time season since 2018-19.
At SI Betting, we’ve had you covered with picks for the play-in tournament games and previews focused on the Eastern and Western Conference playoff teams.
The final two teams will join that field Friday night when the Pelicans and Clippers and Hawks and Cavaliers play for the 8-seed in their respective conferences.
Throughout the postseason, you can expect game picks, analysis and series predictions. For the six playoff series for which the matchups have been decided and odds are out, here are our first-round series winners and correct score predictions.
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No. 5 Utah Jazz vs. No. 4 Dallas Mavericks
Series winner: Jazz (-333) | Mavericks (+250)
Series handicap: Jazz -1.5 (-222) | Mavericks +1.5 (+165)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (-120) | Over 5.5 (-120)
This series hinges almost entirely on the health of Luka Doncic. The Mavericks’ All-NBA forward strained his left calf against the Spurs in the regular-season finale last Sunday and is expected to miss Game 1 of the series.
It’s difficult to overstate how important Doncic is to Dallas—he leads the team in points (28.4), rebounds (9.1) and assists (8.7) per game. He’s also first in the NBA in usage percentage for the second season in a row.
If Doncic is back for Game 2, the Mavericks could very well win in five or six games. If he misses the first two games and Dallas heads to Salt Lake City trailing 0-2, a gentleman’s sweep could be in order.
Utah is fully equipped to give the Mavericks problems. The Jazz are armed with the No. 1 offense in the NBA and a star in Donovan Mitchell, who’s had his fair share of playoff moments already. They did, however, struggle in the second half of the season and much of their top-ranked offense hinges on the three ball, which Dallas defends exceptionally well.
With the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson’s growth this season, I believe the Mavericks are better equipped to play without Doncic than they were the last two years. Still, I worry he could miss more than one game and that he won’t be 100% when he returns, so I’m going with the Jazz to take a tight series.
BET: Jazz to win, 4-3 (+700)
No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies
Series winner: Timberwolves (+275) | Grizzlies (-400)
Series handicap: Timberwolves +1.5 (+110) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-152)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (+110) | Over 5.5 (-152)
The Timberwolves are riding on the high of qualifying for just the second time in the last 18 years. And they’re more than deserving of being here. I do, however, think the Grizzlies will prove to be too much for them.
No one on Memphis is going to stand down against Patrick Beverly and the team is equipped to bully Karl-Anthony Towns inside with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams. I don’t know that anyone is stopping Anthony Edwards if he plays the way he did against the Clippers in the play-in game, but Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane are able wing defenders that Taylor Jenkins can throw at the second-year pro.
These teams rank first and second in points per game, and surely plenty of points will be scored, but the edge in the series goes to Memphis for its advantage on defense. The Grizzlies are the No. 1 rebounding team in the league and swat the most shots per game. Minnesota will be asking a lot of Towns, Jarred Vanderbilt and Naz Reid.
If there’s concern about the health of Ja Morant, there’s solace in how well Memphis played without him all season. And when he is healthy, he’s been one of the most electric, unstoppable players in basketball and is capable of taking over this series.
I’m putting a lot of stock into Memphis having been to the playoffs just a season ago with almost this same exact team in place. This is newer territory for Minnesota, which went to the playoffs in 2018, though Towns is the only holdover from that year.
The Grizzlies are the more complete team than the T-Wolves and that will bear out in a seven-game series.
BET: Grizzlies to win, 4-2 (+400)
Matt Slocum/AP
No. 5 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers
Series winner: Raptors (+150) | 76ers (-188)
Series handicap: Raptors +1.5 (-161) | 76ers -1.5 (+115)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (+138) | Over 5.5 (-200)
Philadelphia doesn’t match up well with Toronto. The Raptors have a fleet of young, athletic wings to throw at James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. The 76ers’ approximation of that length—Matisse Thybulle—is unable to play road games in this series due to his vaccination status.
The literal biggest advantage Philly has is why I’m confident it can avoid the upset. Toronto will have no answer for Joel Embiid. The 7’0” center won the scoring title and had the healthiest season of his career. Nick Nurse’s most-used lineup doesn’t include any players taller than 6’8” (Pascal Siakam). The Raptors will have to simply let Embiid get his 35 and 12 or take out one of their dual threats in favor of a slightly bigger forward or center like Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher or Khem Birch, none of whom are taller than 6’9”.
Toronto is much better on defense than offense. The Raptors get into passing lanes and force the second-most steals per game in the NBA. The 76ers take good care of the ball and the typically turnover-prone Harden has cut down his giveaways on his new team. Philadelphia is the better shooting team in all facets of the game and could live at the free-throw line in this series without an apt defender for Embiid. The 76ers lead the league in free throws made this season.
The Raptors have the upper hand when it comes to coaching and they did win the season series. I think the 76ers stars ultimately overpower Toronto, though. The leap Maxey took this season will be important in a series like this against such a capable defense and in the end, Embiid has grown into a player who can single handedly dominate over a five-, six- or seven-game stretch. Philly avoids a collapse—for now.
BET: 76ers to win 4-2, (+400)
No. 6 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors
Series winner: Nuggets (+200) | Warriors (-250)
Series handicap: Nuggets +1.5 (-125) | Warriors -1.5 (-118)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (+125) | Over 5.5 (-188)
I’d love to see how this series would unfold if the Nuggets had Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. suiting up alongside Nikola Jokić—I’m sure Jokić would too. But that’s not happening, this season at least.
The Warriors are steadily regaining their health and hope to play Game 1 with the full Big 3 of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. That’s been a rarity this season, but it’ll be muscle memory for these three to retake the court together. The Dubs are led by their No. 2 defense, not their offense, despite Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins each adding 17-plus points to the Splash Bros’ output.
Defending Jokić will be difficult for the Warriors. He can go to work on Kevon Looney, Draymond Green is giving up a lot of size against him and the same goes for Otto Porter Jr. Luckily for Steve Kerr, Jokić is really all the defense needs to worry about.
Jokić can, of course, get his teammates involved with his exceptional passing. Aaron Gordon, Will Barton and Monte Morris aren’t necessarily intimidating sidekicks, though. Denver will need to shoot the lights out from three off kicks from Jokić, something it’s about league average at.
Denver’s defense won’t be able to contend with Golden State’s offense for a full series. Jokić can and has gone toe-to-toe with the NBA’s best; this challenge will be too much. He’s worth an extra win or two in a series and what he did by dragging this team to the postseason is commendable (and will be commended with a second MVP award) but this series will go to the Warriors.
BET: Warriors to win 4-2, (+420)
Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Brooklyn Nets vs. No. 2 Boston Celtics
Series winner: Nets (+115) | Celtics (-152)
Series handicap: Nets +1.5 (-200) | Celtics -1.5 (+150)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (+150) | Over 5.5 (-200)
This series will test the validity of the “team with the best player wins the series” trope. Because Boston is clearly the better team, though Brooklyn has the best player in the series. There are so many angles to get into—there’s Kyrie Irving leaving the Celtics on bad terms years ago and the fact this is a rematch from the first round last year with the seeds flipped this time around. Then, there’s the Nets being Finals favorites over the Celtics despite how their respective seasons played out. It’s all there.
Boston has the No. 1 defense in the NBA and a key part of that unit, Robert Williams III, will miss at least the beginning of this series. Nets guard Bruce Brown said after his team’s play-in win that they can take advantage of Al Horford and Daniel Theis, who will stand in for Williams in the meantime. Durant quickly shut that down, though.
This isn’t just a great defense against Durant and Irving.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum took a major jump this year to be considered among the NBA’s upper echelon. And with Tatum alongside Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Derrick White, the C’s also have a top-10 offense in tow.
The Nets’ depth behind their two stars thins out quickly. There’s Andre Drummond, who will need to be a major player on the glass. Then there’s the sharpshooting Seth Curry and Brown, who’s a bit of a Swiss Army knife on both sides of the ball.
The wildcard in this series (and for the postseason and next few years of Brooklyn basketball) is Ben Simmons, who reportedly may play late in the series for the first time since last season’s disappointing Game 7 with the 76ers.
Ultimately, I think Simmons returning and playing 15-25 minutes of good defense while likely still refusing to shoot outside of the paint will be more of a distraction than a net positive for the Nets. Brooklyn’s play-in game against Cleveland was not encouraging for its postseason aspirations. I think Boston takes an instant-classic, seven-game series thanks to a late return by Williams and Tatum going head-to-head with Durant.
BET: Celtics to win 4-3, (+350)
No. 6 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks
Series winner: Bulls (+550) | Bucks (-901)
Series handicap: Bulls +2.5 (+115) | Bucks -2.5 (-161)
Series total games: Under 5.5 (-188) | Over 5.5 (+130)
The Bucks are the heaviest first-round favorite for a reason. Milwaukee swept Chicago in the regular season and outscored its division rival by 59 points. Three of those games happened since March 4 and the teams played as recently as April 5, a 21-point Bucks victory.
The midseason Bulls are gone, replaced by a team that went 8-15 after the All-Star break despite getting back some of its key players (Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams). Chicago is well on its way to squandering the best season of DeMar DeRozan’s career. The Big 3 of DeRozan, Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic is still intimidating on paper, though their play on the court hasn’t translated to winning basketball for a bit.
Milwaukee meanwhile is on the war path to repeating as champions. The Bucks got Brook Lopez back right in time for the playoffs, Giannis Antetokounpo capped off another MVP-caliber campaign and, if anything, the role players around Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton got better.
The Bucks are better on offense and defense, have a massive rebounding and three-point shooting advantage and have far and away the best player in this series and maybe in the NBA. It’s not out of the question for Chicago to get a game, but I wouldn’t count on it.
BET: Bucks to win 4-0, (+300)
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