The Heat stole Game 3 in Boston over the weekend to take a 2-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference finals.
With Miami now in the driver’s seat, the pressure is on the Celtics to perform in Game 4 at TD Garden. Both teams enter the game with a long injury list, but the stars are expected to go for this pivotal matchup.
The Celtics are sizable home favorites but I’m staying away from that spread. I am, however, combining an over/under pick and three player props into a four-leg, same-game parlay on SI Sportsbook with the bet builder. I’m 8-2 over my last 10 bets—let’s stay hot tonight!
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 68-61
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Spread: Heat +6.5 (+100) | Celtics -6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Heat (+240) | Celtics (-300)
Total: Under 207.5 (-110) | Over 207.5 (-110)
Leg 1: Grant Williams 2+ Made Threes
Williams drained two threes in each of the past two games and is shooting 43.5% from deep on nearly five attempts per game in the postseason. His minutes per game are up in the Heat series, though his field goal and three-point attempts are down. Of course, his shooting numbers against the Bucks were inflated by his 18 three-point attempts in Game 7. He doesn’t need to replicate that historical shooting performance for this bet to hit—he just needs to connect on a few of the spot-up looks afford to him by the attention Miami pays to Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.
Leg 2: Over 207.5 Total Points
The over has hit in each games and it hasn’t been particularly close with the teams combining for 225, 229 and 212 points. The injury reports for both Boston and Miami are lengthy and include each team’s stars: Tatum, Robert Willianms III, Marcus Smart, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro, who is out. Butler has already said he’s playing, though, and Tatum is probable, so I’m not necessarily worried about either team’s ability to put up the 105-110 points necessary to send this game over.
Leg 3: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points
Brown is fresh off a masterclass, 40-point game against the Heat. Tatum had an off game and Brown delivered, and he did in Games 1 and 2 as well. He finished with 24 points in each of the first two games and averages 29.3 ppg for the series and 23.7 ppg for the playoffs. His three-point shooting has been phenomenal in the postseason, especially versus Miami, and he already has a pair of games in this series with double-digit free throw attempts. He has shown he can easily eclipse this number.
Leg 4: Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Points
This playoff run has been up and down for Adebayo. He has as many games with single-digit points as he does with 20 or more. Adebayo put it all together for the Heat in Game 3 with Butler out for the second half. He finished with 31 points on 15-22 shooting, and that was with just a single free-throw attempt, a figure that should likely increase. It was important for Adebayo to be aggressive and see the success he did against Boston’s defense. Miami might not go to him as much as it did in the last game with Butler back for Game 4, but he should still manage to hit the over.
BET: Four-Leg, Same-Game Parlay (+600)
- Grant Williams 2+ Made Threes
- Over 207.5 Total Points
- Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points
- Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Points
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