French Open Quarterfinals Betting Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal

Bets and analysis for the 59th meeting between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal on Tuesday in the quarterfinals of the French Open.

Author:
Doug Vazquez
Publish date:
May 31, 2022

On Tuesday evening in Paris, tennis will see the 59th installment of Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal as the two legends of the sport face each other in the quarterfinals of the French Open. As about as evenly matched as any rivalry could be, Djokovic holds the slight edge over with a 30-28 all time record against the Spaniard.

Despite the storied rivalry and all of the records and statistics attached, none of those will matter when things get underway at Roland-Garros.

Bet on the French Open at SI Sportsbook

Jul 14, 2018; London, United Kingdom; Novak Djokovic (SRB) and Rafael Nadal (ESP) at the net after their match on day 12 at All England Lawn and Croquet Club. — Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Djokovic vs Nadal

Event: French Open quarterfinals
When: Tues. May 31, 2:45pm ET
Where: Roland-Garros, Paris, Franche

Nadal, coming off of an Australian Open championship (a tournament that Djokovic was thrown out of and ultimately deported from the country) is more than a 2–1 underdog (+205) at SI Sportsbook against the current world No. 1 in Djokovic (-250).

Last year’s French Open was the last time time these two clashed and the Serbian came away with a grueling semifinal victory to move on to the championship match, which he won for his his 20th major. Nadal holds the record for grand slams with 21.

From a betting perspective, it is important to differentiate which statistics and trends are relevant for this matchup.

Jun 11, 2021; Paris, France; Novak Djokovic (SRB) celebrates winning his semifinal match against Rafael Nadal (ESP) on day 13 of the French Open at Stade Roland Garros. — Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Nadal has earned his ‘King of Clay’ moniker. He is without a doubt the greatest player in the history of the French Open with a mind-boggling 109-3 record and 13 titles. One would be hard pressed to pass on taking plus-money odds offered on Nadal.

However, I am taking a pause here and really think Djokovic will prove to be too much for Nadal. Last year’s champion has not lost a set in eight matches and has made easy work of his four matches leading up to this quarterfinal.

There are also some rib and foot injury concerns for Nadal, which may have contributed to him needing five sets to close out Auger-Aliassime on Sunday to advance to this quarterfinal. I just think Djokovic is in top form right now and Nadal is trending the other way, so I’m backing the favorite to win here.

I do think the -250 price is a slight too high to bet the moneyline, so I am looking at two props for this matchup.