MLB American League MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Odds
We are about 50 games into the 162-game MLB season and it’s a good time to check in on some futures odds.
This season has already been full of surprises and there have been some big odds shifts. Let’s see if we can find some value.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
Here is where the current market stands for AL MVP at SI Sportsbook:
Shohei Ohtani +220
Aaron Judge +333
Mike Trout +400
Jose Ramirez +1100
Vlad Guerrero, Jr. +1700
Rafael Devers +2200
Yordan Alvarez +2500
Byron Buxton +2500
Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite at +220 odds, but you would have been smart to take the modern-day Babe Ruth before the season started when you got +350 odds. There is still value, of course, for a two-way player who is pitching to a 3.45 ERA while also contributing 11 home runs and seven stolen bases. Ohtani is a major reason why the Angels have a winning record and are competitive in the AL West.
Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout is having a “slow” start to the year, hitting “only” 13 home runs with a .302 batting average. The weather is only getting warmer, and Trout just bat-flipped the heck out of his two year old son, so he’s clearly hungry.
I like the +400 odds for the three-time MVP to make it four.
But, how can we not talk about the Yankees and Aaron Judge? Judge has seen the biggest shift in odds all the way from +1600 preseason to +330. It’s not too late to still get some value at more than 3-1 odds for the slugger who leads the league in home runs with 18—that’s five more than Trout. Judge is also batting .303 in a contract year.
Conversely, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. has seen the biggest drop from +375 all the way to +1700 odds. Vlad has had trouble elevating the ball again this year, and it’s probably because pitchers have finally figured out how to pitch him. The Blue Jays have disappointed so far this season, opening as the AL favorites for the World Series, but now behind both the Yankees and the Astros to win the AL pennant at SISB.
But it’s a long season. The value of +1700 is awfully tempting for the player who led the league in with 48 home runs in 2021 while also batting .311.
Jose Ramirez is another player that’s off to a hot start. His odds have moved from +2000 to +1100 and I’m getting on board.
Ramirez is batting .299 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases for the Guardians. That’s seven more stolen bases than Trout with the same number of home runs.
Ted S. Warren/AP
Now, let’s take peek at AL Rookie of the Year:
Julio Rodriguez +200
Jeremy Pena +240
Bobby Witt Jr. +650
Joe Ryan +650
Adley Rutschman +1400
Spencer Torkelson +1700
This list has completely flip-flopped and we have a new entry in Twins pitcher Joe Ryan at +650 odds. Ryan owns a 2.28 ERA with a 24% K rate across eight starts.
You may recall I recommended both Julio Rodriguez at +600 odds and Jeremy Pena at +1100 odds in the preseason. Unfortunately, that value has now evaporated.
Pena leads all AL rookies in WAR (2.2) and is even above Francisco Lindor and Nolan Arenado. Pena is batting .281 with eight home runs and three stolen bases.
Rodriguez has been fantastic for the Mariners - and for fantasy baseball managers - this season. Rodriguez is batting .268 with six homers and 14 stolen bases.
Since there isn’t much value in the above picks anymore and I already locked in Pena in the preseason, I am putting a bet on Royals infielder Bobby Witt, Jr., who was the favorite for this award before the season began.
Witt is hitting .232 with six homers and seven stolen bases. All six of Witt’s home runs came in May and he’s trending in the right direction.
Ted S. Warren/AP
Finally, let’s take a look at where the odds stand for AL Cy Young.
Justin Verlander +400
Kevin Gausman +500
Gerrit Cole +700
Shane McClanahan +700
Alek Manoah +1000
Nestor Cortes +1100
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Gerrit Cole, who was the favorite for this award preseason, is now behind both Kevin Gausman and Justin Verlander.
And guess what? This list looks unlike anything we saw preseason. Cole is the only pitcher in this list that was in the top six heading into this year.
Verlander, at +1600 odds, was my pick preseason and I hope you locked in that value. At +400 odds, however, I am staying away from the Astros’ ace as I didn’t like how a lot of his sliders were hanging in his last start.
I still love JV—I just loved him more at +1600 odds.
Gausman is a pick I really like and Shane McClanahan and Alex Manoah are having incredible seasons. Tampa Bay’s McClanahan is striking batters out at a 36% clip.
But, when it comes down to it, I don’t see how you pass on Nestor Cortes at +1100 odds. The Yankees are the best team in the AL right now with a run differential of +79 and sitting comfortably on top of the AL East. Cortes is a major part of that. He’s arguably the team’s true ace with a 1.70 ERA and a 30% K rate. Nestor is nasty.
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
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