Mariners-Blue Jays MLB American League Wild-Card Series Betting Preview

Betting analysis of the American League wild-card series between the fourth-seeded Blue Jays and fifth-seeded Mariners.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
Oct 6, 2022

In this story:

The Mariners (5) travel to face the Blue Jays (4) in a best-of-three wild-card series at Rogers Center on Friday at 4:07 .m. ET.

The Jays finished the season 92-70, while the Mariners posted a 90-72 record. Both clubs are young and hungry, and this sets up to be a dynamic showdown. This is Seattle’s first postseason appearance since reaching the ALCS in 2001.

The Mariners won the regular-season series, 5-2. The Blue Jays won two of three in Toronto in May, before Seattle swept the Blue Jays in Seattle from July 7-10. The Mariners tallied 21 runs in that series compared to the Blue Jays scoring 11 runs.

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Sep 26, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (center) celebrates after hitting a walk-off single against the New York Yankees during the tenth inning at Rogers Centre. — John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Mariners (90-72) vs. No. 4 Blue Jays (92-70) Odds

Series odds: Mariners (+125) | Blue Jays (-150)
Blue Jays odds: TOR in 2 (+200) | TOR in 3 (+250)
Mariners odds: SEA in 2 (+350) | SEA in 3 (+300)
Series length: Two games (-125) | Three games (-125)
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 2022 | 4:07 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022 | 4:07 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 3 (if needed): Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 | 2:07 p.m. ET | ABC

The visiting Mariners finished 16 games behind the AL West champion Astros, but they look every bit of a contender that can go all the way. Seattle’s starting pitching has been solid with the 11th-best ERA in MLB.

The trade for Luis Castillo has been brilliant with Castillo recording a 3.17 ERA with his new team, while striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings. Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert have also been excellent at the top of the rotation with Gilbert logging the lower ERA (3.20) and Ray bringing the heat (10.1 strikeouts per nine). Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have done fine filling out the rotation.

The bullpen for Seattle has been excellent, with the sixth-lowest ERA this year and converting 73% of its save opportunities.

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The Mariners have depended offensively on rookie Julio Rodriguez, who not only nearly won the Home Run Derby but is also the AL Rookie of the Year favorite. His 28 home runs, 25 steals and .284 average have made the difference in this team. Eugenio Suarez leads the Mariners with 31 homers, while Ty France hit well all year with a .276 average, 20 home runs and 84 RBIs. Even still, the Mariners are not an offensive juggernaut. Their 4.26 runs per game ranks 18th in MLB.

The Blue Jays are quite a contrast to the Mariners, finishing second to the Yankees and only seven games behind them.

Toronto’s starters posted a 3.98 ERA with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman being brilliant atop the rotation. Both were in the conversation for AL Cy Young mid way through the season. Ross Stripling (3.01 ERA) has been a solid No. 3 with 10 wins. After that, there is a major drop to Yusei Kikuchi (5.19) and Jose Berrios (5.23). Luckily for the Jays, this series shouldn’t require their services.

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The Jays’ bullpen has been middle of the pack with a 3.77 ERA and converting 63% of their save opportunities.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have a big advantage. This young lineup is stacked top to bottom with talent. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. … the list goes on. The Jays have MLB’s best batting average (.264), the third-best slugging (.431), OPS (.760) and OBP (.329) while scoring the fourth-most runs per game (4.78).

When I look at this matchup, it’s hard not to see the Jays coming out on top. Offensively, they are better by every metric and they only need to win two of three. Manoah, Gausman, and Stripling should be able to get that done.

The Mariners can’t be counted out, though. There is something magical about this team, and it feels like it could be their year. Castillo Ray, and Gilbert give them a solid foundation for every game, as long as their bats show up.

The Blue Jays currently have +600 odds to win the AL pennant, while the Mariners own +1200 odds. If you believe in Seattle, who dominated the regular-season series between these two teams, grab the value.

That being said, I’m putting my money on the Jays. Their pitching is good enough to make it through this three-game series, and I can’t bet against their bats.