Week 12 NFL Odds and Best Bets
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SI Sportsbook is here to help reload those depleted bank accounts that took a hit from all the holiday spending!
Earlier this season, two lucky winners won $10,000 playing SI Sportsbook’s free NFL betting contest. Two players fell just short of the five-figure score in Week 11 by going 9-1! Are you ready to join the list of winners?
Bettors can enter the free-to-play Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook every week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every contestant who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
In this week’s “Perfect 10” contest bettors find a card listing an even split with five home teams and five road teams as the betting favorite.
Let’s look at the 10 games in the contest and some trends on tap for Sunday!
Can the Cardinals, who are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) over their last 11 games at State Farm Stadium, upset the Chargers?
Will the Broncos, who are 0-4 straight-up (SU) on the road this season and 2-6 ATS over their last eight away from Mile High, cover as road favorites at the Panthers?
If Justin Fields is unable to play, will the Bears - who are 1-5 SU on the road - be able to score against a Jets’ defense that only allowed four touchdowns over their last five games?
Can the Saints, who are 0-4 ATS on the road, stay within the spread against a red-hot 49ers squad that owns a three-game winning streak and is hitting their stride?
So, which games stand out as best bets? Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help. Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the contest.
Conor Orr: Texans +11.5
Weird things happen all the time in the NFL. Especially weird things happen if a coach is gambling with his teams emotions and randomly inserts Kyle Allen into the starting lineup, which seems like a real possibility. Of course the Dolphins are far superior, but does a decent rushing performance from Dameon Pierce and Allen picking up a few more first downs keep them close enough to cover?
Albert Breer: Chargers -2.5
It just feels like there’s a breakout coming from L.A., and Arizona’s having a rough week in a lot of ways. So, I’ll take Justin Herbert to get it done.
Frank Taddeo: Chargers -2.5
Justin Herbert and the Chargers find the perfect “get right” spot to snap their two-game losing skid when they head to Arizona to take on the struggling Cardinals. The Chargers are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road and encounter an Arizona club that has lost five of their last seven games (3-4 ATS). Whether it’s Kyler Murray (hamstring) or Colt McCoy, the Cardinals will not keep pace with a Chargers’ offense that is finally getting healthy. The Cardinals are covering the spread at 18.2% clip at State Farm Stadium over their last eleven home games (2-9 ATS). Take advantage of a line that has steamed up to 4.5-point demand since the contest lines were released.
Michael Fabiano: Titans +1.5
The Bengals have one of the most explosive offenses in the entire league, so it’s not a surprise to see them favored in a road matchup against the Titans. Tennessee seems to be universally disrespected though, and I like them to win this game outright on its home field. They’ve covered the spread in nine of their last 13 home games (69.2%), and they’re 4-0 as home underdogs against the spread in that time. Take the Titans.
Jennifer Piacenti: Buccaneers -0.5
This feels like a freebie since Tom Brady should have a healthy receiving corps that will be fresh off a bye. Tampa’s run defense has been good this year and should limit Nick Chubb, while the Browns have been the second-most generous to opposing runners. Every way I add this up, Tampa Bay comes out on top.
Craig Ellenport: Dolphins -11.5
This is the biggest contest spread of the week and there’s a good reason for that. The Texans are pretty clearly the worst team in the NFL this season, while the Dolphins will not be overlooking them since Miami is in such a tight AFC East race. As for that double-digit spread? Well, the very one-dimensional Texans’ offense is averaging 13 points over its last four games. The Dolphins are averaging 30 points over their last four. Houston has played two mediocre offenses the last two weeks, allowing the Giants and Commanders to score 24 and 23, respectively. With all their weapons, the Dolphins should score at least 40 this week. Houston doesn’t have the talent to keep up.
Matt Ehalt: Buccaneers -0.5
This line is too good to be true. Tom Brady, off a bye, only needs to win to cover? Just pay me now. The Buccaneers are gonna start their second-half surge now against a team that is headed nowhere. The Browns will not run all over the Buccaneers, and Brady and his weapons can get on page against a terrible defense. There’s no reason why the Buccaneers can’t win this game easily. Brady and the Buccaneers get back above .500 for good in Week 12.
Kyle Wood: Chargers -2.5
Stay away from the Cardinals at home. They’re 1-4 SU in front of their fans this season and 2-3 ATS. And whether it’s Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy under center against the Chargers, it’s difficult to trust Arizona coming off a 38-10 walloping in prime-time. These teams have two notable common opponents that L.A. played the last two weeks: San Francisco and Kansas City. The Chargers didn’t beat either, but they came much closer to doing so than the Cardinals. And Justin Herbert, with Keenan Allen back, is primed for a big outing against this secondary.
Matt De Lima: Buccaneers -0.5
The Buccaneers are no prize in 2022 but I see a faint glimmer—a silver lining—emerging from this franchise. The offensive line is improving and hopefully Rachaad White can take advantage of a porous Browns’ defense as he did in Week 11, when he chewed up 105 yards on 22 carries against the Seahawks. This bet is not so much a bet on Tampa Bay as it is a bet against the Browns. Cleveland has only covered the spread four times this year, while compiling just one win in their last seven games. I’ll happily take the Bucs here in what amounts to a pick’em bet.
Bill Enright: Buccaneers -0.5
If this isn’t the easiest bet of the year, I don’t know what is. The Buccaneers are back from their much-needed bye week and even though they are on the road, they get the benefit of facing a Browns team that is 1-4 in their last five games. Look for Tampa Bay to go on a run, with wins in six of its next seven games, and with the half-point spread you’re essentially grabbing the Bucs on the moneyline!
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
