NFL Week 16 Player Props to Target
With 11 NFL games Saturday and three Sunday, there are plenty of opportunities to get in on the action this weekend.
Weather will be a factor in many games, so if you’re taking an over prop for a receiver you could wait to see if you get more value closer to game time. If you’re taking an over for a running back, the time to grab it is now. Quarterbacks are probably not going to put up big numbers this week, as seven games have totals under 40 points at SI Sportsbook. However, I like the rushing props to go over for most mobile quarterbacks, including Justin Fields, who is not singled out below.
Here are a few props I am already banking on this weekend.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Daniel Jones over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
The game total (48.5) for this contest is tied for the second-highest of the week, and the Giants are best when Daniel Jones uses his legs. Jones’s 583 rushing yards rank fifth among quarterbacks, and he’s averaging 41.6 yards per game. The Vikings are allowing only 21.6 ground yards per game to quarterbacks, but they yielded 36 to Kyler Murray, 57 to Jalen Hurts and 84 to Josh Allen.
Josh Allen over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
For similar reasons to why I am taking the over for Jones, I am taking the over for Allen. Allen has the fourth-most rushing yards this season and averages more than 50 per game. The Bears just gave up 61 to Hurts and they yielded 68 to Jones. Add in wind gusts up to 32 mph and that Allen is used to playing in tough, snowy conditions, and we should be able to take this to the bank.
Miles Sanders Rushing Touchdown (+120)
Miles Sanders has 11 rushing touchdowns this year, and it would probably be even more if he didn’t have a mobile quarterback that had 13 of his own. Well, this week he probably doesn’t have that quarterback since Hurts is likely out for this one. Even if Hurts somehow plays, they will need to be careful with him. Sanders should take the goal-line duties. I like the plus-money payout here.
Justin Jefferson Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Justin Jefferson’s 1,623 receiving yards leads the NFL, and he averages 115.9 yards per game. The struggling, banged-up Giants allow the fourth-most yards to receivers for an average of 191.1 yards per game. Jefferson sees 38.5% of his team’s targeted air yards with a 30% target share and should tally 90 yards.
Travis Kelce Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Travis Kelce’s 1,144 yards would rank him sixth at wide receiver, ahead of Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. His 127 targets lead all Chiefs’ players, and he plays with the quarterback that has the most passing yards (4,496) and most passing touchdowns (35) this year. Best of all is that his matchup this week is with the Seahawks, who have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Don’t worry about the cold, just take the over.
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