NFL Divisional Round Lock, Upset and Player Prop Advice
We find an interesting storyline heading into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Dak Prescott, who has only played in the NFL for seven seasons, is the oldest quarterback starting this weekend at the age of 29!
It is fair to state that the new crop of young signal-callers - Patrick Mahomes (27), Josh Allen (26), Joe Burrow (26), Daniel Jones (25), Jalen Hurts (24), Trevor Lawrence (23) and Brock Purdy (23) - has arrived!
The two 1-seeds, the Chiefs and Eagles, will commence their journeys to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., for Super Bowl LVII on Feb. 12.
Can they cover at home as more than full touchdown favorites?
Can Jones, who is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, reward underdog bettors yet again against a familiar NFC East rival?
Will Allen and Burrow, whose teams are both facing major health issues along their respective offensive lines, have the time to hook up with their star wideouts down the field?
Will Prescott and the Cowboys hand Purdy his first defeat as an NFL starter or will the 49ers move on to their 18th franchise appearance in an NFC title game?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated Betting is here to provide their lock play, which underdog has the best chance to pull the upset, as well as which proposition wager bettors should look to target. Let’s check out the predictions!
Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Jennifer Piacenti
Playoff Record: 2-0-1 (+2.38 Units)
LOCK: Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Record: 0-0-1
The Bills have barely squeaked by as of late, while the Bengals went 12-5 ATS during the regular season. I think either team could win this one but give me the points for Joe Cool, who is riding a nine-game win streak.
UPSET: Cowboys (+165)
Record: 1-0
Yep, I’m not just a homer. Look, Dak Prescott had his terrible game in Week 18. That’s done. Yes, the Niners look like the team to beat in the NFC, but don’t forget they are starting a third-string quarterback. If Micah Parsons and the Dallas defense can remain tough, that Niners’ secondary can be beat. That this payout is the least of the underdogs suggests SI Sportsbook may think I am onto something.
PROP: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-138)
Record: 1-0
The Chiefs allowed a league-leading 33 passing touchdowns during the regular season, Lawrence threw two touchdowns when these teams met in Week 10 and the Jaguars are expected to play from behind. I also like Lawrence to go over his rushing prop of 15.5 yards (-125). He may need to scramble as the Chiefs’ 9.6 pressures per game led the NFL during the regular season. Lawrence logged 26 yards on the ground when these two matched up in Week 10.
Frankie Taddeo
Playoff Record: 2-1 (+1.0 Unit)
LOCK: Teaser: KC -1.5 / NYG +14.5 (-120)
Record: 1-0
Respected Money information from Las Vegas is 6-0 over their last six teaser bets shared here at Sports Illustrated. Patrick Mahomes is 39-10 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium and in this wager we can bring the Chiefs down to a virtual moneyline investment. Avoiding Kansas City as a 8.5-point favorite is key on a club that is 1-6-1 ATS at home this season, but at less than a field goal is a steal. In the other leg of this play, we will back a ‘live’ underdog playing in the Saturday nightcap. The Giants are 14-4 ATS this season and we get them as more than two-touchdown underdogs (+14.5). Brian Daboll’s squad has thrived when being spotted points by oddsmakers, posting a immensely lucrative 11-2 ATS mark.
UPSET: Bengals (+205)
Record: 1-0
The Bengals have proven to be one of the best road teams in the NFL, posting an outstanding 7-2 ATS mark away from Paycor Stadium. On the flip side, although the Bills are an impressive 8-1 straight-up (SU) at Highmark Stadium they have burned bettors only covering the number in three of those contests. We will grab the points in this game, but do not sleep on the Bengals moving on to face 1-seed Kansas City in a rematch of last season’s AFC championship game.
PROP: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-137)
Record: 0-1
Brock Purdy has thrown multiple touchdowns in all seven games since he took over the starting role for the 49ers. The Cowboys have allowed 25 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season and the over has witnessed sharp steam in this game in Vegas. The total, which opened at 45, has been driven up to 46.5 in some respected shops, lending credence to a high-scoring affair Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. Despite limited NFL experience, Purdy is playing with veteran swagger and that makes this wager one the best values of the weekend.
Kyle Wood
Record: 2-1 (+1.0 Unit)
LOCK: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
Record: 1-0
San Francisco has not lost with Brock Purdy at quarterback. Specifically, it hasn’t lost with Purdy under center and dual-threat Christian McCaffrey in the backfield and a healthy George Kittle and now Deebo Samuel is back in action as well. This offense, which has scored 37-plus in four straight games, is dangerous and the defense might be even scarier. Before Monday’s win in Tampa, Dak Prescott had turned the ball over in seven straight games and the 49ers’ defense, with 30 turnovers in the regular season, is certainly opportunistic. San Francisco is a tough team to beat in the Bay and Kyle Shanahan is plenty familiar with Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn from their time together in Atlanta. When these teams met last year in the wild-card round in Dallas, the Niners came away with a 23-17 win. Expect a repeat result this time around with the Cowboys on the road.
UPSET: Bengals (+205)
Record: 0-1
While I’m not banking on Joe Mixon to have a big day, the rest of the team could. Specifically, Joe Burrow. This goes against my Buffalo Super Bowl pick, but that performance against Miami was so deflating that I’m about ready to back off the Bills entirely. And of the three other matchups, I feel good enough about all of the favorites that the Bengals are essentially my default pick. Cincinnati, winners of nine straight and the defending AFC champions, should not be discounted.
PROP: Joe Mixon Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Record: 1-0
Mixon’s success in the regular season was largely a result of volume, not efficiency. He broke four runs of 20-plus yards all season, averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry and there’s little reason to believe he’ll be shouldering a heavy workload in this contest. The Bengals pass at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and he logged 11 carries against the Ravens—and gained just 39 yards. Cincinnati is an underdog on the road against Buffalo, which means Burrow figures to be passing all game. The Bills also had a top-five run defense in the regular season and let up just 42 rushing yards on 20 attempts against Miami in the wild-card round.
Michael Fabiano
Playoff Record: 2-1 (+0.42 Unit)
Lock: Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Record: 1-0
The Bengals haven’t played great football lately, but the Bills haven’t exactly been world beaters either. Just look at what happened last week against a Dolphins team that started a third-string quarterback. I’m jumping on the five points in what should be a close contest at Orchard Park.
UPSET: Giants (+275)
Record: 1-0
The Eagles didn’t enter the playoffs with a lot of momentum, and they’re dealing with some injuries on offense. Jalen Hurts has been dealing with an injured shoulder, and Lane Johnson is dealing with a groin/core ailment. On the flip side, the Giants are coming into the game hot and were able to stick with the Eagles in the regular-season finale despite sitting most of their starters. I’m not sure the G-Men win the game, but I do like them to stay within the 7.5-point spread.
PROP: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (-161)
Record: 0-1
I was wrong about Dak throwing an interception last week, but I’m sticking with the prop once again in a much tougher matchup in San Francisco. He’s still thrown at least one pick in seven of his last eight games, and he’s thrown zero interceptions in just three games. The Niners have also forced an interception in each of their last five games and have compiled seven picks in that time. No team had more interceptions (20) than the 49ers during the regular season.
Matt De Lima
Playoff Record: 1-1 (+0.3 Unit)
LOCK: Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Record: 0-1
This game feels more like a pick’em after the Bills showed their vulnerabilities last week against the Dolphins. Cincinnati still struggles to pass protect and the run defense was average at best against the Ravens in the wild card. However, the Bengals have a more balanced attack and can control the ball with Joe Mixon.
UPSET: Giants (+275)
Record: 1-0
New York is rolling and we haven’t seen Jalen Hurts play like himself in awhile. Perhaps some early Philly rust will position the Giants favorably with game script - allowing more Saquon Barkley touches to to control the clock and force the Eagles to test Hurts’s readiness. The Eagles should win, but the line is too sweet to pass up.
PROP: Christian McCaffrey First Touchdown Scorer (+410)
(N/A)
You can dig for better odds, but if there’s one guy who is most likely to score a touchdown this weekend, who else could it be but CMC? He’s found the end zone in seven straight and you can count on him to see close to 20 touches every game.
Matt Ehalt
Playoff Record: 1-1-1 (+0.20 Unit)
LOCK: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
Record: 0-0-1
The Cowboys took advantage of a bad Buccaneers team on Monday. That won’t be the case against the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense will get after Dak Prescott and the Cowboys won’t have any answer for the 49ers’ rushing attack. The Cowboys ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game (125.0) and Kyle Shanahan will make life tough for Dallas. Dallas has also not shown in a while that it can string together multiple high-performance games.
UPSET: Bengals (+205)
Record: 1-0
The Bills have not been playing all that well over the past month and barely survived against Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. They won’t be as fortunate against a Bengals squad that is clicking. The Bengals didn’t inspire confidence with their showing against the Ravens, but it’s hard to beat a physical team like Baltimore three times in the same season. Cincinnati is easily the best choice to escape the divisional round with an upset win.
PROP: Boston Scott ‘Anytime Touchdown’ (+300)
Record: 0-1
Death. Taxes. Boston Scott scoring a touchdown against the Giants. Seriously, check out his career numbers against the G-Men. Scott has 17 career touchdowns and 11 –yes, 11–have come against the Giants. He turns into some combination of Walter Payton and Barry Sanders each time he faces the Giants. May as well bet on him scoring again at 3-1 odds.
Bill Enright
Record: 1-2 (-1.1 Units)
LOCK: Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Record: 0-1
This is the premiere game of the divisional round, so while fans everywhere will be locked in to watching the game I’m making it my lock of the week. The Bengals could win this game outright, but I put the Bills (and Eagles) in my Super Bowl matchup, so I’m going to stay true to that prediction. So instead of grabbing Cincinnati on the moneyline I’ll happily take the points and ride with the Bengals, who have the second-best ATS record (12-5).
UPSET: Cowboys (+165)
Record: 0-1
One of the NFL’s greatest NFC playoff rivalries gets a new chapter this weekend. The 49ers have been the NFL’s best team the last two months and put on an absolute clinic in the second half of their wild-card bout against the Seahawks. But their Cinderella story with rookie quarterback and the 2022 NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, will end this weekend. That’s right, the clock is striking midnight in Santa Clara and the Cowboys will advance to the NFC championship.
PROP: Isaiah Hodgins Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Record: 1-0
I banked on Hodgins last week (and won) as my go to prop of the week and I’m banking on him again as the Giants take on the Eagles. He is by far Daniel Jones’s top target and quite frankly it’s odd the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted his yardage total yet. He’s coming off a game with nine targets, eight catches and 105 yards and was so visibly the focal point of the Giants’ passing attack. That will remain to be the case in the Divisional Playoff matchup against New York’s NFC East rival.
Craig Ellenport
Playoff Record: 1-2 (-2.13 Units)
LOCK: Eagles -7.5 (-110)
Record: 1-0
Don’t be fooled by last week’s playoff win for the Giants–the Eagles’ defense is much better than Minnesota’s. Don’t be fooled by the Giants’ backups playing a close game against Philly in Week 18 – the Eagles were being careful with Jalen Hurts returning to action and they clearly took their feet off the gas pedal against a team of backups. The Week 14 meeting between these teams paints a much clearer picture. The Eagles won that game 48-22, and it wasn’t that close.
UPSET: Bengals (+205)
Record: 0-1
This is the game in which Buffalo will really miss Von Miller. The Bengals’ offensive line is hurting, but Cincinnati has too many weapons going up against a Bills’ defense that couldn’t shut down Skylar Thompson last week.
PROP: DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Record: 0-1
When you think about DeVonta Smith on a big stage, you think of his 12 catches for 215 yards and three touchdowns in less than three quarters of work in the 2021 national championship game. He scored seven touchdowns this season, including a 41-yarder in the Week 14 win over the Giants. While the Giants work hard to shut down A.J. Brown, Smith could have a big game.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
