Super Bowl LVII Receiving Props
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With the game total for Super Bowl LVII set at SI Sportsbook all the way up at 50.5, it’s time to check in on some receiving props for the Big Game.
The Chiefs are a pass-heavy offense and quarterback Patrick Mahomes’s 41 regular-season passing touchdowns and 5,250 passing yards led the NFL.
The Eagles are a more run-dominant offense, but quarterback Jalen Hurts’s 3,701 passing yards ranked tenth in the league despite playing only 15 games.
Which receivers, tight ends and pass-catching backs will be hitting the over on Super Bowl Sunday? Let’s take a look at where the receiving markets have opened.
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Super Bowl LVII Receiving Yards Props
Travis Kelce - 78.5
Over (-125) | Under (-118)
A.J. Brown - 72.5
Over (-125) | Under (-120)
DeVonta Smith - 62.5
Over (-120) | Under (-125)
Dallas Goedert - 45.5
Over (-120) | Under (-120)
Jerick McKinnon - 22.5
Over (-118) | Under (-125)
Quez Watkins - 13.5
Over (-118) | Under (-125)
Isiah Pacheco - 12.5
Over (-125) | Under (-120)
Kenneth Gainwell - 11.5
Over (-120) | Under (-125)
Miles Sanders - 5.5
Over (-118) | Under (-133)
A.J. Brown has not had a big postseason, but is he due?
During the regular season, Brown commanded a 28.7% target share (fourth) and a 38.4% air yard share for the Eagles and he averaged 88 receiving yards per game. In the postseason, Brown has commanded a 29.2% target share and a 38% air yard share, while averaging only 25 receiving yards per game.
The Chiefs have allowed 221.5 passing yards per game in the postseason and surrendered 243.5 per game during the regular season. They have yielded a 65% catch rate to wideouts.
DeVonta Smith has fared better in the postseason, averaging 48.5 receiving yards per game with a 27.1% target share and 33.8% of the air yards. He has not exceeded this mark (62.5) in any postseason game, but he went over it in his final six regular-season games.
During the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 18th vs. tight ends and allowed 47 receiving yards per game. Dallas Goedert averaged 58.5 receiving yards per game across 12 regular-season games. He went over this prop in the divisional round vs. the Giants, and exceeded this prop in eight regular-season games.
The biggest question is: Will Nick Sirianni’s team keep the ball on the ground?
Kenneth Gainwell exceeded this prop five times during the regular season and Miles Sanders cleared it five times. Sanders also had negative yards twice.
Jerick McKinnon topped this prop from Weeks 14-16, but has disappointed since then. However, the Eagles did allow an average of 32 receiving yards per game to running backs during the regular season. If Mahomes is still banged up, he may find himself dumping off to McKinnon.
Travis Kelce is Mahomes’s favorite target and no one else comes close. Kelce averaged 78.7 yards per game during the regular season and he’s exceeded this prop in both postseason games. It won’t be easy, though, vs. a Philadelphia defense that allowed 47 yards per game to the position during the regular season. That being said, name a better postseason duo than Mahomes and Kelce.
Kelce’s 1,467 career postseason receiving yards are second only to Jerry Rice. His 15 receiving touchdowns are tied for second with Rob Gronkowski.
Super Bowl LVII Receptions Props
A.J. Brown - 5.5
Over (+110) | Under (-163)
DeVonta Smith - 5.5
Over (+105) | Under (-158)
Dallas Goedert - 4.5
Over (-152) | Under (+100)
Jerick McKinnon - 2.5
Over (-188) | Under (+120)
Miles Sanders - 1.5
Over (+135) | Under (-213)
Quez Watkins - 1.5
Over (-110) | Under (-133)
Kenneth Gainwell - 1.5
Over (-158) | Over (+105)
Brown averaged 5.2 receptions per game this season, while Smith averaged 5.6. Smith has exceeded this prop once in the postseason, while Brown has yet to catch more than four passes spanning the two games.
Goedert averaged 4.6 receptions per game during the regular season and has caught exactly five passes in each postseason game. The Chiefs allowed 5.25 catches per game to tight ends during the regular season.
McKinnon exceeded this prop nine times in the regular season, but he’s yet to catch more than two passes in the postseason. The Eagles are allowing 4.8 receptions per game to running bucks, including postseason.
Super Bowl LVII Longest Reception Props
Travis Kelce - 23.5
Over (-118) | Under (-133)
DeVonta Smith - 23.5
Over (-118) | Under (-133)
Dallas Goedert - 18.5
Over (-118) | Under (-125)
Jerick McKinnon - 12.5
Over (-120) | Under (-125)
Kelce has exceeded this prop in 10 of 19 games this year but has failed to do so in the postseason. Philadelphia allowed only 48 plays of more than 20-plus yards during the regular season -second only to the Saints.
Smith topped this prop seven times during the regular season and in both postseason games this year. The Chiefs allowed only 52 big plays of 20-plus yards this regular season, tied for fifth-best with the Cowboys.
Goedert cleared this prop in seven of 12 regular-season games and once this postseason.
Super Bowl LVII Receiving Touchdowns Props
Travis Kelce - 0.5
Over (-110) | Under (-133)
A.J. Brown - 0.5
Over (+130) | Under (-200)
DeVonta Smith - 0.5
Over (+155) | Under (-250)
Dallas Goedert - 0.5
Over (+190) | Under (-300)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 0.5
Over (+250) | Under (-450)
Jerick McKinnon - 0.5
Over (+400) | Under (-901)
Noah Gray - 0.5
Over (+490) | Under (-1205)
Quez Watkins - 0.5
Over (+590) | Under (-1786)
Zach Pascal - 0.5
Over (+900) | Under (-12500)
Jack Stoll - 0.5
Over (+1125)
Kelce has the best odds to score among the pass catchers, followed by the Eagles’ top three options. Kelce has scored in each game this postseason, while Smith and Goedert each tallied a receiving touchdown against the Giants.
*Editor’s Note: Rushing + Receiving Yards props for Sanders and McKinnon were covered in our rushing props article.
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