Duke-North Carolina Men’s College Basketball Preview and Best Bet

A classic rivalry gets even more intense with Tar Heels in desperation mode.

Author:
Pat Forde
Publish date:
Mar 3, 2023

In this story:

It’s March, the best month of the year for college basketball. Smaller conference tournaments are underway, and this is the last weekend of regular-season games in the major conferences. There are some opportunities to make a score with moneyline picks, so let’s get to it.

Duke at North Carolina

Game Info: March 4, 2023 | 6:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Duke Straight-Up Record: 22-8 (13-6 ACC)
Duke Against the Spread Record: 11-19

North Carolina Straight-Up Record: 19-11 (11-8)
North Carolina Against the Spread Record: 10-18-2

The young Blue Devils are playing well, but the Tar Heels are desperate. Much like last March in Cameron Indoor Stadium, a victory here could cement Carolina’s spot in the NCAA Tournament. Duke has a losing road record in ACC play (3-6), and the Dean Smith Center will be at a fever pitch for this annual blood feud.

Controlling the backboard will be key. North Carolina has made a living for years on the glass, but Duke has the size and mentality to match up in that department. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage, per Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, while the Tar Heels lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

After weeks of futility Carolina is finally making some outside shots, going 24 of 51 from three-point range in victories over Virginia and Florida State last week. That has coincided with a dramatic reduction in playing time for center Armando Bacot, who averaged just 22.5 minutes and six points in those two games. Bacot will be needed for much more against Duke 7-footers Dereck Lively and Kyle Filipowski.