NCAA Men’s Basketball Big East Tournament Betting Preview: UConn, Marquette Have Best Odds to Win
The Big East tournament has been Villanova’s tournament to lose in recent years, but the Wildcats will likely have a tough time defending their title this season.
The action begins Wednesday at Madison Square Garden and fourth-seeded UConn is the favorite to win the tournament, just ahead of Marquette, which enters as the top seed.
Nearly half of the conference is projected to be in the Big Dance in Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket projection: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn and Providence are all in. The Wildcats have some work to do this week to make it back.
Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:
No. 1 Marquette Golden Eagles (25–6, 17–3 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 19–11–1
KenPom Ranking: 13
NET Rating: 13
Odds to win Big East: +290 (2nd)
Marquette won its first ever Big East regular-season title and earned a bye to the conference tournament quarterfinals where it will play the winner of St. John’s and Butler. The Golden Eagles swept both teams and saw them both recently as well. They beat the Bulldogs, 72-56, two games ago and defeated the Red Storm, 96-94, in the season finale, their sixth straight win. Marquette, ranked No. 6 in the AP Top 25, is one of the most efficient offenses in the nation and ranks 15th in scoring average (81 ppg). Kam Jones (15.3 ppg) leads the team in scoring and is one of four players who averages double-digit points while Tyler Kolek is second in Division I in assists (7.9 apg).
No. 2 Xavier Musketeers (23–8, 15–5 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 16
NET Rating: 22
Odds to win Big East: +400 (4th)
Xavier ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak and the few losses it did have in conference play were all tight games. Aside from a 17-point loss to Villanova, its other four Big East losses were by two points or fewer. The Musketeers rank 10th in the country in scoring average (82.1 ppg) and have five players who average 10-plus points. They will be without Zach Freemantle (15.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg) the rest of the way due to season-ending foot surgery. He last played Jan. 28. Xavier, which is No. 15 in the AP Poll, will face either Seton Hall or DePaul in the quarterfinals. It swept the Pirates and split its two games against the Blue Demons this year.
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays (20–11, 14–6 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 12
NET Rating: 14
Odds to win Big East: +340 (3rd)
Creighton beat up on the two worst teams in the conference over the last week. It blew out Georgetown, 99-59, defeated DePaul, 84-70, and will face the winner of Villanova and Georgetown in the quarterfinals Thursday. The No. 24 Bluejays swept the Hoyas and split its two games against the Wildcats. They grade out as one of the top defensive teams in college basketball and back that up with a capable offense, with shooters assembled around big man Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg).
Jessica Hill/AP
No. 4 UConn Huskies (24–7, 13–7 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 20–10–1
KenPom Ranking: 4
NET Rating: 6
Odds to win Big East: +280 (1st)
After a 5–6 start in league play, UConn won eight of its final nine against the Big East and it brings a five-game winning streak into Madison Square Garden. One of those victories came against Providence, which it will play in the quarterfinals, though the Friars also beat the Huskies in January. No. 11 Connecticut is led by Adama Sanogo (16.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Jordan Hawkins (16.4 ppg) and has one of the best cover percentages in the NCAA this season.
No. 5 Providence Friars (21–10, 13–7 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 18–13
KenPom Ranking: 44
NET Rating: 51
Odds to win Big East: +1500 (6th)
Providence lost three of its last four games, including a 24-point blowout at home against Seton Hall in the regular-season finale. The Friars open against the Huskies, who they beat at home and lost to on the road. Forwards Bryce Hopkins (16.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Ed Croswell (13.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg) are the top players to watch for Providence, which hangs its hat on its offense (78.5 ppg) rather than its defense (71.3 ppg).
No. 6 Villanova Wildcats (16–15, 10–10 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 67
NET Rating: 80
Odds to win Big East: +800 (5th)
It was a down year by Villanova standards, without coach Jay Wright at the helm for the first time in decades. The program won the Big East tournament last season and four of the last five overall. Its path to another title begins against Georgetown, which it beat by 16 points on the road and by four at home. The Wildcats are led by upperclassmen like Eric Dixon (15.7 ppg), Caleb Daniels (14.6 ppg) and Justin Moore (13.6 ppg) who have plenty of experience in big games.
No. 7 Seton Hall Pirates (17–14, 10–10 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 16–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 64
NET Rating: 75
Odds to win Big East: +3000 (7th)
Seton Hall enters the conference tournament coming off a huge upset win against Providence last weekend. The Pirates struggled down the stretch and lost five of their final seven games but they beat DePaul, their first-round opponent, twice during the regular season. Their offense doesn’t score as much as some other Big East teams and they instead rely on a highly graded defense that defends the three well and forces plenty of turnovers. Al-Amir Dawes is the top scorer for the Pirates (12.6 ppg) and their best outside shooter.
No. 8 St. John’s Red Storm (17–14, 7–13 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 88
NET Rating: 97
Odds to win Big East: +5500 (8th)
Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports
St. John’s lost three of four to wrap up the regular season and allowed nearly 100 points to UConn and Marquette in its last two games. The Red Storm begin the tournament against Butler, which they beat by 16 at home and lost to by two on the road. Joel Soriano (15.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg) is one of the country’s top rebounders and is the leading scorer for St. John’s.
No. 9 Butler Bulldogs (14–17, 6–14 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 14–15–2
KenPom Ranking: 123
NET Rating: 131
Odds to win Big East: +25000 (T-9th)
Butler beat its Round 1 opponent, St. John’s, the last time the programs met a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs are just 2–4 since then and head into the tournament on a two-game losing streak. Butler’s defense is a formidable force but its offense, led by Jayden Taylor (13.2 ppg), is less intimidating.
No. 10 DePaul Blue Demons (9–22, 3–17 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 11–18–2
KenPom Ranking: 150
NET Rating: 172
Odds to win Big East: +25000 (T-9th)
DePaul has dropped 12 in a row heading into the tournament. The Blue Demons face the Pirates in the first round, a team they lost two twice but played close both times. Umoja Gibson (15.8 ppg) and Javan Johson (14.3 ppg) are their top scorers and both are solid shooters from deep.
No. 11 Georgetown Hoyas (7–24, 2–18 Big East)
Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 219
NET Rating: 235
Odds to win Big East: +25000 (T-9th)
Wins were tough to come by for Georgetown again this year. It got off to an 0–9 in the Big East and things didn’t improve much from there. The Hoyas have a tough Round 1 matchup against Villanova, which they already lost to twice. Primo Spears leads the team in scoring (15.9 ppg) and he’s also a capable distributor (5.2 apg).
Betting Breakdown
UConn may well be the rightful favorites given how tough they’ve been to beat over the last month, but a quarterfinal matchup with Providence and a potential semifinal battle against Marquette is a tough road to the championship game. Xavier has a more favorable draw on the other side of the bracket and offers some value as the No. 2 seed with the fourth-best odds. The Musketeers won’t have to play either Creighton or Villanova until the semifinals and few teams can keep up with their offense.
BET: Xavier (+400)
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