Bracket Watch: UNC-Duke One of Many Pivotal Matchups This Weekend

All eyes are on the Tar Heels, who are in desperate need of a win to keep their tournament hopes alive.

The first weekend of conference tournaments is officially upon us! By Monday, four automatic bids to the Big Dance will already be locked up, starting with the Ohio Valley’s champion Saturday night. It’s also a pivotal weekend for teams still wrapping up their regular season, as we have a number of critical games impacting bubble teams on the docket, the race for No. 1 seeds and much more.

Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s latest men’s bracket projection.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Last Four Byes

NC State
West Virginia
Rutgers
Mississippi State

Last Four In

Nevada
Auburn
Utah State
Arizona State

First Four Out

Wisconsin
North Carolina
Penn State
Oklahoma State

Next Four Out

Charleston
Michigan
Clemson
Oregon

Utah State joins the field for the first time all season after a major increase in the team’s quality metrics thanks to a blowout win over UNLV on Wednesday. The Aggies’ résumé still lacks a Quad 1 win, but they’ll get a chance at finally notching one this weekend at home against Boise State. A win would do wonders for Ryan Odom’s team’s tournament hopes.

And staying alive in the bubble picture is Penn State, which got a much-needed Quad 1 road win at Northwestern to move closer to the cut line. A huge game looms this weekend against a Maryland team that has struggled away from home.

Plus, all eyes are still on North Carolina, which desperately needs a win this weekend at home against Duke to bolster a résumé currently lacking in Quad 1 victories.

* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Howard/FDU*
No. 8 Florida Atlantic* vs. No. 9 Providence
No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Iona*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Toledo*
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 West Virginia
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Youngstown State*

Arizona had briefly moved onto the No. 3 line but is back up to a No. 2 after snagging a key road win late Thursday night against USC. Another massive résumé-building opportunity looms Saturday against UCLA as the Wildcats go for a season sweep of the Bruins. UCLA is the Pac-12’s best chance at a No. 1 seed, but Arizona could work its way into the conversation by winning out if it gets help.

How the committee deals with TCU’s résumé will be fascinating given how much of a disparity there has been in the Horned Frogs’ performance when star point guard Mike Miles Jr. has been out of the lineup. Miles didn’t play when TCU lost early this season to Northwestern State, and he was also absent from the lineup during the team’s four-game losing streak early in February. If the committee weighs those games less heavily, the Horned Frogs could be in line for a protected top-four seed.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Morehead State/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Missouri
No. 5 Saint Mary’s* vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Nevada/Arizona State
No. 3 Marquette* vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Kennesaw State*

For now, I’ve held firm on Houston as the No. 2 overall seed, despite Kansas lapping the field in Quad 1 wins. The committee seemed impressed a few weeks ago with the Cougars’ nonconference résumé and perfect road record. Any loss would certainly knock the Cougars below the Jayhawks though, and it’s a strong possibility that Kansas winning out would push them to the No. 1 overall seed anyway and drop Houston to the No. 3 spot. The practical difference is the second-weekend location: Kansas City vs. Las Vegas.

The plight of NC State and Pittsburgh this season feels eerily similar to that of Notre Dame and Wake Forest a year ago. Each team stacked wins against a down ACC, then stumbled some down the stretch and lost early in the ACC tournament. The result? Wake Forest was shipped to the NIT and Notre Dame to the First Four. After Pitt’s loss at Notre Dame and NC State’s consecutive defeats, each could use a win in the conference tournament to feel safe.

No. 3 Kansas will take on No. 9 Texas Saturday.

BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

West Region

No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-CC*
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 USC
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Yale*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Auburn/Utah State
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Hofstra*
No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Vermont*

Despite some ugly losses in Big East play (at DePaul, at Butler, home Villanova), Xavier is back onto the No. 4 line after its huge road win at Providence on Wednesday. With 12 wins across the top two quadrants headlined by a sweep of UConn, the top of this résumé outweighs the bottom.

Iowa State is officially in freefall, losers of four straight, six of seven and eight of 10. Most concerningly, those struggles have manifested on the Cyclones’ usually dominant home floor, with losses in the last week to Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Cyclones are down to the last No. 7 seed in our projections after ranking in the top 12 of the committee’s top 16 reveal a few weeks ago, and the drop may not be done just yet.

East Region

No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 UNC Asheville*
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 San Diego State* vs. No. 12 Bradley*
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Southern Miss*
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Rutgers
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Furman*
No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh*
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington*

Just when we thought Kentucky was set to soar up the seed list, the Wildcats took what is, for now, a Quad 3 loss at home against Vanderbilt. Kentucky’s NCAA tournament hopes are not in question, but that defeat could certainly cost them in seeding. Our new projection for the Wildcats puts them on the dreaded No. 8 line, meaning a potential date with a No. 1 seed in the second round.

The only thing Rutgers had to do to secure an NCAA tournament bid was beat lowly Minnesota. Naturally, the struggling Scarlet Knights relinquished a 10-point lead with 75 seconds to go, taking a ghastly loss to a Minnesota team that had beaten just one over-.500 team all season long. Now, Rutgers needs to beat Northwestern this weekend to avoid feeling major heat entering the Big Ten tournament. The Scarlet Knights have lost five of seven since starting forward Mawot Mag went down for the season.