MLB Best Bet for Friday Night: Take the Over in A’s-Royals
What a week it has been! The Red Sox swept the Blue Jays at Fenway with the over hitting on every game of the four game series, Bryce Harper returned successfully to the Phillies lineup, Max Scherzer looks like he may need sticky stuff and Justin Verlander got the Jacob deGrom treatment: he delivered a strong start but got no run support.
Not-so-breaking news: The Mets are still the Mets.
Now, let’s get the weekend started right and have some fun with a bold plus-money bet tonight from SI Sportsbook:
Kansas City Royals/Oakland A’s over 9.5 runs
Hear me out.
The Athletics have exceeded their run totals 66.7% of the time this year (20-10-2). The Royals have exceeded their run totals 53.3% of the time this year (16-14-2).
Brent Rooker
Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports
Neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts. In fact, both have only scored exactly 3.72 runs per game this year. That’s tied for 26th in the league.
But, that’s not the only thing they have in common. These two teams also share another weakness -- incredibly generous bullpens.
The A’s bullpen has the highest ERA this season, all the way up at 6.78. Kansas City has the fifth-highest at 5.51.
The Royals have been hitting well this week, scoring six runs per game on average and putting up 10 runs vs. Baltimore just yesterday. I’ll bet they can get to Oakland’s starter, Kyle Muller, who has an xERA of 7.48, according to Statcast. On the other side of this game, the A’s should also be able to put up some runs vs. Brad Keller, whose average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 18% of the league. Look for Brent Rooker to stay hot at the dish for the A’s and Bobby Witt Jr. to come through for the Royals.
Throw in that this game is being played at Kauffman Stadium and games at Kauffman have averaged 10 runs per game this season and the over suddenly looks a little less bold.
The Pick: A’s/Royals over 9.5 runs (+105)
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