MLB Betting Trends and DFS Plays for Thursday: Lots of Reasons to Like the Rangers

Matchup against the lowly A’s offers a few different betting options.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
May 11, 2023

In this story:

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

Bet on the Rangers to keep mashing Thursday night in Oakland, whether you’re building a DFS lineup or looking at player props.

If you follow betting trends, all signs point to tonight’s matchup being a smart one to bet on.

Let’s start at the top.

The Rangers lead the AL West with a 22-14 record.
The A’s have the worst MLB record (8-30).

The Rangers have scored the most runs per game this season (6.31).
The A’s have scored the fourth-fewest (3.89).

The Rangers have covered the run line 61% of the time (22-14).
The A’s have covered the run line 39.5% of the time (15-23).

Rangers games have gone over the run total 61.8% of the time (21-13-2).
A’s games have gone over 66.7% of the time this year (24-12-2).

Oh, yes. You read that correctly. The only team that has gone over their run total more often than the A’s is the Boston Red Sox.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi — Nathan Eovaldi
Jim Cowsert/USA Today sports

Yes, you also read correctly that the A’s have scored the fourth-fewest runs per game this season. What gives?

Get ready for this one:

A’s relievers are allowing 6.97 runs per nine innings. That’s right. Teams facing the A’s bullpen are hammering them.

Here’s the best part: Not only are the A’s facing the team that has scored the most runs per game this season, but the A’s are also calling up 34-year-old righty Zach Neal to start tonight. The last time Neal started an MLB game was 2016 -- for the Dodgers.

In other words, we get a bullpen game tonight. Even if the A’s can’t score a single run, the Rangers could potentially go over this run total on their own. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Rangers, and his K prop is set at 6.5. Let’s take the over on that, too, as the A’s have the sixth-highest K rate in the league.

Spend up for Eovaldi tonight in DFS, and make sure you’ve got Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe or Josh Jung in your lineup. If you spend down, spend down for any player from Texas. Brent Rooker is a good value from the A’s, but other than that, fill your team with players from Giants-Diamondbacks or Rays-Yankees.