MLB Best Bet: The Reds Are on a Roll, So Don’t Overthink This
The Reds won their 10th in a row last night while also covering the run line and hitting the over for us. When I was choosing my bet for Wednesday, I wanted to try to use another team, but after looking at the matchup for Cincinnati, I decided: Why not roll it one more time! Reds for 11 in a row -- who’s with me?
Not only did the Reds score eight runs last night at home, raising their per-game average to 5.32 per game (fifth in MLB), they also improved to a 62.2% rate covering the run line (46-28-0) -- third-best in MLB.
The Reds will have rookie Andrew Abbott on the mound tonight. The rookie lefty has yet to allow a single earned run in three MLB starts (17⅓ innings pitched). Yes, you read that correctly. Sure, he could be due for some regression, but it’s hard to think it will blow up today, as Colorado ranks 29th in OPS and 28th in ISO and SLG vs. southpaws.
The Rockies will give Connor Seabold the start. Seabold has an ERA of 5.88 for the season, and it’s not because it’s inflated due to his home stadium. Seabold’s road ERA is 6.91 this year. The Rockies’ 4.11 runs scored per game this season are unlikely to be enough to cover the run line.
This isn’t overcomplicated. The Reds are the hottest team in baseball right now, and the Rockies are 29-47 on the season and have won only three of their last 10.
Don’t overthink it.
The Bet: Reds -1.5 (-133)
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