MLB Best Bet: Astros-Cardinals Will Hit the Over
Let’s take the over today as the Astros visit the Cardinals in St. Louis. Games at Busch Stadium are averaging 10.4 runs this season. Even with two sluggish offenses there is reason to believe the game total will exceed the 8.5 line on SI Sportsbook.
Only one pitcher in the MLB this season (Oakland’s J.P. Sears) has a higher fly ball rate than Cristian Javier’s 54.1%. Javier has still been able to control his ERA due to a good chase rate, but his 3.25 ERA is considerably lower than his 4.25 xERA, according to Statcast. The Cardinals have the 11th-best fly ball rate (26.8%), and though they are averaging only 4.05 runs per game in June, this spot at home is one that could work out nicely for hitters that can’t slump forever; veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should never be discounted. Houston’s bullpen has also been less than reliable of late, with the fifth-highest ERA in the month of June (5.06). If Dusty Baker chooses to pitch Rafael Montero at all, the Cardinals will have a major advantage.
On the other side of this one is Miles Mikolas who has lost all four of his starts in June while allowing 15 earned runs. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of the league and his average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 22% of the league. That could be dangerous vs. a Houston lineup that can erupt at any moment despite the fact they have only scored 4.46 runs per game in June. The St. Louis bullpen has also been mediocre this month with an ERA of 4.60 for June, and with Jose Altuve expected to return to the lineup tonight, the Astros should be able to put up some offense in the hitter-friendly ballpark.
The Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)
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