MLB Best Bet: Yankees Bats Stay Hot in St. Louis
We are on a roll this week, so let’s see if we can finish strong heading into the holiday weekend!
The Yankees arrive in St Louis Friday night following two consecutive games of double-digit scoring.
The Cardinals host following two consecutive games of allowing double-digit scoring.
So -- you guessed it -- we are going with the over once again at Busch Stadium, where games are now averaging 10.68 runs this season. The run line is set at 9.5, as it was last night -- when we told yo to play the over and the Cardinals lost to Houston, 14-0. But this time we get a +100 payout.
Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees, and he has struggled in June with a 6.93 ERA across five starts. His hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, barrel % and Whiff % are all in the bottom 8% of the league, and his 42.5% fly ball rate could spell trouble for the Yankees vs. a Cardinals team that has a 26.6% fly ball rate (13th), a .422 SLG (eighth), and is scoring 5.08 runs per game at home this season. They are also allowing 5.63 runs per game at home this season, which bring us to the other side of this game. Matthew LIberatore draws the start for the Cardinals, and the young lefty has an ERA of 5.60 with an xERA of 7.24 according to Statcast. That xERA is in the bottom 1% of the league, as is his xWOBA.
Meanwhile, this Yankees team has suddenly caught fire with Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and even Isiah Kiner-Falefa all making meaningful contributions. They’re still riding high from Domingo German’s perfect game two nights ago, and they should be able to put some runs on the board tonight, especially vs. a St. Louis bullpen that has a 5.20 ERA in June.
The Bet: Over 9.5 (+100)
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