NFL Betting Trends: Teams That Hit the Over, Under Most Often
NFL scoring in 2022 was the lowest average the league has seen since 2017.
There were still teams who were capable of consistently smashing the over, but the under cashed in the vast majority of games. The Vikings finished with the highest over rate in the league for the second year in a row, though this time their string of shootouts resulted in a playoff bid. Some teams whose games hit the under at a high rate experienced success, like the Buccaneers and Ravens, but most missed out on the postseason.
Let’s take a look at the five teams whose games hit the over the most often last season and the same for the teams who favor the under. With repeat performers like Minnesota and the Broncos, this information could be informative come next season.
Teams That Hit the Over Most Often
Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports
Over/Under Record: 11–6
The Vikings had the eighth-highest scoring offense (24.9 points per game) and fifth-worst defense (25.1 ppg) in 2022, a perfect storm for plenty of points. Seven out of nine games Minnesota played at U.S. Bank Stadium — a dome — hit the over, the highest rate in the league. The Vikings’ highest point total of the season was set at 51.5 in the two games they played against the Lions and the over cashed both times. Minnesota’s lowest over/under of the season was 42 against the Saints and Patriots and the over hit with ease in each contest.
Over/Under Record: 10–7
Even though the NFC champs had a top-10 scoring defense that held opponents to 20.2 points per game, their offense finished third in scoring at 28.1 points per game and saw to it that the over still hit at a high rate. The over was more frequent at Lincoln Financial Field (6–3) than on the road (4–4) for Philadelphia. The highest regular-season point total for an Eagles game was set at 49.5 in a game against the Vikings that they won, 24-7, one of their lowest-scoring games of the year.
Over/Under Record: 10–7
The Bears' offense was well below league average last season, scoring just 19.2 points per game, which ranked in the bottom third of the NFL. Their defense was even worse. Chicago yielded 27.2 points per game to its opponents, the most in the league. The Bears had their fair share of low-scoring games, like a 12-7 loss to the Commanders, which finished well under the 38.5-point over/under, but they also went on a run of seven consecutive overs in the middle of the year. Chicago combined for a whopping 78 points with the Cowboys in a 49-29 loss, one of the highest-scoring games of the season.
Over/Under Record: 10–7
The Lions were the only team in the league to finish top five in scoring and bottom five in points allowed. Detroit’s 26.6 points per game were good for fifth-most but the defense surrendered 25.1 points on average, third-worst. Six of the team’s games had point totals set at 50 or higher and the over hit in four of them. It should come as no surprise that the Lions were involved in the highest-scoring game of the season and one of the highest-scoring games ever: Their 48-45 shootout loss to the Seahawks smashed the over/under of 48.5 points and the 93 combined points tied for the 16th-most scored in NFL history.
Over/Under Record: 8–7–2
Cardinals games hit the over more often than not in 2022. Their offense finished 21st in scoring at an even 20 points per game, the worst finish since 2018, and the defense allowed 26.4 points per game, second-most in the NFL. The over/under for Arizona’s season-opener against the Chiefs was set at 54 points, which was easily cleared in a 44-21 defeat. It would be six weeks before the over hit again until a Week 7 game against the Saints — a 42-34 win, which went over the set 44-point total — began a run of five straight overs for the Cardinals.
Teams Whose Games Hit the Under Most Often
Andrew Nelles / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Over/Under Record: 5–12
Titans' games often devolved into slogfests last year. Their offense averaged 17.5 points per game, 28th-fewest in the NFL, while the defense finished just inside in the top half of the league, yielding 21.1 points on average. Most of Tennessee’s games that did hit the over were in large part due to their opponent running up the score. The Titans only won one of the five games in which the over hit and lost the other four by at least two scores. Tennessee had four games with the over/under set below 40 points — the lowest was set at 34 points in a contest with the Texans — and the under hit each time.
Over/Under Record: 5–12
The under happened often for the Ravens a season ago. Their offense finished 19th in scoring at 20.6 points per game while their suffocating defense let up just 18.5 points per game, the third-best mark in football. And after quarterback Lamar Jackson went down in Week 12, the under hit in four of the final five games, all of which were set below 40 points. Three separate Baltimore games saw fewer than 20 total points scored: A 13-3 win over the Panthers, a 13-3 loss to the Browns and a 10-9 win against the Broncos. The Ravens did participate in a few high-scoring contests, including a 42-38 loss to the Dolphins that went well over the 43.5-point total, but most of their games saw fewer points scored than expected.
Over/Under Record: 5–12
The Jets were among the NFL’s worst offenses and best defenses in 2022. They scored just 17.4 points per game, fourth-fewest, and allowed 18.6 points on average, which was also the fourth-fewest. The over hit three times over New York’s first five games but the under cashed 10 times over its next 12, even with point totals often set below 40. That stretch included five consecutive unders to end the season. Two Jets games saw fewer than total 20 points scored: A 10-3 loss to the Patriots and an 11-6 defeat against the Dolphins.
Over/Under Record: 5–11–1
The Commanders finished with a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense last season. Not a lot of points were scored just outside the nation’s capital. Washington’s 18.9 points per game scoring average was good for 24th and the 20.2 points per game they allowed was seventh-best. The Commander’s season began with two overs, including a 36-27 loss to the Lions that went well over their season-high 48-point total. That gave way to a run of four straight unders as the offense regressed. Overs occurred sparingly as the season went on.
Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under Record: 6–10
There was a four-way tie for the fourth-highest under hit rate in the NFL between the Broncos, Buccaneers, Saints and Rams.
Denver’s league-worst offense was the subject of much ridicule throughout the season as it averaged just 16.6 points per game. The under hit in 10 of the Broncos’ first 11 games but the over cashed in each of their final five games. Tampa Bay had the second-highest scoring offense in 2021 but took a major step back to the 25th-best unit, with an average of 18.4 points per game. The under hit in 10 of the Bucs’ first 12 games. New Orleans averaged 19.4 points per game and was one of 11 teams to average fewer than 20. The Saints, who also had a top-10 defense, saw the under cash in nine of their last 10 games. Los Angeles’ offensive struggles without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp were evident as the team finished 27th in scoring at 18.1 points per game. Rams games still leaned heavily toward the under despite their 22nd-ranked defense, which allowed 22.6 points per game.
