NFL Survivor Pool Strategy
Competing in a survivor pool is an ideal way to stay engaged with the NFL every week. It doesn’t require the same commitment level as running a fantasy football team or involve any of the intricacies of betting.
It boils down to a rather elementary idea: Pick one winner and advance. Of course, there’s a little more strategy involved than that but that’s the gist of it.
For those new to survivor pools, here’s how it works: Competitors pick one team each week that they expect to win -- straight up, not against the spread. If that team is victorious, on to the next week you go. If not, you’re eliminated (unless your pool allows for some leeway in the form of a mulligan or there’s an option to buy back in). In most cases, teams can only be used once, so choose wisely.
Betting odds should help to inform your picks, but be careful not to burn through top teams too quickly. For example, the Ravens are one of only two teams favored by at least a touchdown in Week 1: The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites against Houston and the Commanders are favored by 7.5 points against the Cardinals at home.
A lot of survivor pool players will be relying on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 1.
Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore might be a heavier favorite than Washington, but there will be more opportunities later in the season to back the former than the latter. The Ravens host the Colts in Week 3, travel to Arizona for Week 9 and have the Rams at home in Week 14 (off a bye, no less). And against the NFL’s best, a Lamar Jackson-led team has more than a fighting chance. The same can’t necessarily be said for the Commanders. A visit from the Cardinals is their easiest game all year -- on paper, at least -- so it won’t hurt to be disqualified from using them after the opener.
This is where the gamesmanship comes in. You don’t want to run out of teams in the league’s upper echelon early. However, you do still have to pick a winner to stay alive.
PoolGenius has pick popularity data for Week 1 that shows Baltimore is by far the most common pick, followed by Washington. Minnesota, a 5.5-point favorite against Tampa Bay, and Kansas City, a 6.5-point favorite against Detroit, are also popular selections. This isn’t necessarily surprising considering those are the four heaviest favorites for the first week of the season.
There is incentive to go against consensus, but it’s important to do so with caution. Just because the public is on the Ravens doesn’t mean you should go against the grain and back the Texans just to be contrarian. That kind of thinking can assure you an early exit from your pool.
Many survivor pools won’t even last the entire season -- one major upset in a given week might eliminate more than half of the people in your pool. In a best-case scenario, you make it through the season. That means you have to pick 18 different teams out of the 32 NFL teams. You don’t want to use all the best teams early in the season, but you also don’t want to save them for too late in the season because you might not make it that far.
Just as you might look at the Ravens’ schedule and decide you want to save them for a Week 3 matchup, look over the entire schedule and circle what you think are the best matchups for multiple teams.
Stay up to date on line movement, injury news, schedule quirks and, when applicable, weather forecasts before finalizing your pick each week and be sure to consult SI Betting’s weekly survivor pool advice throughout the season.
