Sportsbooks Crush NFL Bettors In Week 11, As Favorites Win, But Fail To Cover
While the trend of favorites winning straight-up continues at a shocking rate, sportsbooks flipped the script on point spread wagering on NFL bettors in Week 11.
Despite favorites dominating the slate with a 10-4 straight-up (SU) mark, underdogs posted a 9-5 against the spread (ATS) edge. The inverted flip resulted from the Cardinals (+5.5), Bears (+8), Raiders (+13.5), Buccaneers (+13.5), Seahawks (+2) and Vikings (+2.5) - despite suffering defeats - all covering the spread. Green Bay (+3; +135), the Giants (+8; +300) and Philadelphia (+2.5; +125) were the only underdogs to pull outright upsets.
Overall, the higher power-ranked teams by oddsmakers possess an amazing 109-55 SU (66.5%) record.
Don’t look now, but the once struggling Broncos, now own the NFL’s longest winning streak after earning a come-from-behind 21-20 win over the Vikings on Sunday night. Despite sitting in second place in the AFC West with a 5-5 record, Denver has not been a solid team to invest in posting a disappointing 3-6-1 ATS mark on the season.
Detroit, Jacksonville, Dallas and Minnesota are all winning squads that sit with an NFL best 7-3 ATS mark. Oddly, there is also one losing club that shares that distinction. The 4-6 Buccaneers, who have lost five of their last six games, have found a way to stay within the spread at a lucrative 70% clip this season.
Rookie quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers have yet to win a home game in 2023.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
After being blown out 33-10 by the Cowboys, the Panthers dropped to 0-5 at home this season. Carolina continues to be the best team to fade this season, covering the spread just once in 10 games (1-7-2 ATS).
After Monday night's Chiefs-Eagles showdown fell short of the betting total of 46.5, bettors have now witnessed primetime games now sit with a remarkable 27-8 mark (77.1%) to the under. In simple wagering terms, investing $100 on every primetime game this season would find an impressive profit of $1,579.
Fantasy Is Reality! Belief In Fantasy Team Scoring TD's Pays Off
One bettor named @domparis24 on Instagram placed a $5 same-game parlay wager on players from his fantasy team to all score at least one touchdown on Sunday.
The investment involved ‘Anytime Touchdowns’ from: Keenan Allen (+120), Jayden Reed (+340), Dalton Shultz (+155), Rondale Moore (+31-), Davante Adams (+210) and Jerome Ford (+220)
The $5 wager at odds of +66109 returned a solid payout of $3,305.
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A “Smartt” SGP TE Touchdown Parlay Makes ‘Books “Tremble”
This win by @ThaLoungeSports on X is arguably one of the boldest wagers of the NFL season. The investor turned a two tight end Same-Game-Parlay into an incredible cash on Sunday.
The wager involved strong belief in rarely used Chargers TE Stone Smartt combined with Panthers TE Tommy Tremble both scoring touchdowns in their respective matchups.
What makes this play wild is that a deeper dive reveals that Smarrt entered the game against the Packers with only two career receptions, while Tremble had only played in 35% of Carolina’s offense snaps in nine games this season.
After Smartt hauled in his first career touchdown, the wager cashed when Tremble scored the only Panthers touchdown of the game in the club’d 33-10 loss to the Cowboys. The $100 wager returned $6400.
Betting Landscape
In Week 11, bettors witnessed home teams go 11-3 (SU) with road teams owning the coveted 8-6 ATS edge. Home teams own a solid 92-67 SU (57.9%) mark, as well as a slight ATS advantage at 78-76-5 (ATS) (50.6%) on the season.
*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats
Bettors watched favorites post both a 10-4 SU, with underdogs grabbing the 9-5 ATS edge, leaving favorites with a 83-76-5 ATS (52.2%) edge on the year.
Games were much lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 10-4 mark to the under on the week. On the year, unders own a sizable lead with a mark of 99-64-1(60.7%).
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle celebrate the team's seventh win.
Bad Beats
Bettors “Hooked” By Two Popular Favorites Leads To Misery
The 49ers and Texans, who entered Week 11 with identical 3-1 home records, were even more appealing to bettors due to their identical 3-1 ATS home marks.
The documented success by both teams led to the two largest liabilities for sportsbooks on Sunday.
Texans bettors, who laid the 5.5-point demand, suffered the bad beat of losing by the dreaded “hook” in the early slate. CJ Stroud, who has been sensational this season, tossed three interceptions inside the red zone. Poor ball security by the rookie standout was instrumental in Houston only beating the Cardinals 21-16.
“Hook” pain was compounded later in the day on Sunday, when the 49ers, 13.5-point home favorites, only prevailed 27-14 over Tampa Bay. After gaining only 37 yards in the fourth quarter, San Francisco failed to score in the final 15 minutes which handed bettors the anguish of coming up a half point shy of covering the largest point spread on the board.
Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors
72% of money on Pittsburgh (+2.5)
- While many bettors heavily faded Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Browns earned a hard fought 13-10 win over AFC North rival Pittsburgh.
80% of money on Texans (-5.5)
- CJ Stroud and the Texans won their third straight game, but ‘hooked’ bettors beating Arizona 21-16, failing to cover the 5.5-point spread.
78% of money on Washington (-8)
- The Giants won just their third game of the season shocking the Commanders and bettors with a 31-19 road win.
79% of money on Miami (-13.5)
- Despite earning a 20-13 home win over the Raiders, the Dolphins burned bettors by failing to cover the massive double-digit point spread.
84% of money on San Francisco (-13.5)
- Despite earning a 27-14 home win over Tampa Bay, the 49ers burned bettors by the dreaded “hook” after failing to cover the largest spread of the week by a half point.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 11, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Commanders (-8) over the Giants, Jacksonville (-7) over Tennessee, Houston (-5.5) over Arizona and San Francisco (-13.5) over Tampa Bay.
*The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 11 of the NFL season, Washington, Jacksonville, Houston and the 49ers made up over 90% of the selections in Survivor contests.
While Jacksonville, Houston and the 49ers all earned home victories, many Survivor players were left crying the blues when Washington was upset 31-19 by the struggling Giants.
To the dismay of the Survivor players, Tommy Devito and the Giants won for the first time in over a month, snapping their three-game losing steak by upsetting the heavily favored Commanders, 31-19.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Look-Ahead
Here are four games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 12.
Dallas (-10.5) vs Washington (Thanksgiving Day)
Miami (-9.5) at NY Jets (Black Friday)
Kansas City (-9.5) at Las Vegas
**Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
