Statement Win By Cowboys Forces Oddsmakers To Make Notable Moves In NFL Betting Futures
The Cowboys (10-3) moved into a share of first place in the NFC East after a dominant 33-13 win over the reeling Eagles (10-3) on Sunday Night Football. Dallas’ standout quarterback Dak Prescott improved to 31-8 straight-up (SU) and 28-11 against the spread (ATS) versus NFC East rivals in his eight-year career.
Prescott, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes (28), is now the betting favorite (+160) to earn 2023 NFL MVP honors grabbing favoritism away from San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (+200). The two-time Pro Bowl signal-caller has made a meteoric move in one of the most popular betting markets after being listed at +3800 only four weeks ago.
Dallas, who owns a league-best 9-4 ATS mark, heads to Buffalo in Week 15 to face Josh Allen and the Bills as 2.5-point road underdogs.
George Kittle and the 49ers are the top power-ranked team by oddsmakers in the NFL after beating their opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game over their current five-game winning streak.
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Following San Francisco’s fifth consecutive double-digit victory, oddsmakers lowered the NFC West power to +250 favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII - well ahead of Miami (+650), Baltimore (+650), Philadelphia (+650) and Dallas (+800). The 49ers (10-3), who now own the No. 1 seed in the NFC, will head to Arizona as 13.5-point road favorites over the Cardinals in Week 15.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (10-3) took over the No. 1 seed in the AFC after earning their seventh win in their last eight games - combined with a shocking loss by Miami on Monday night against Tennessee. Baltimore, who is 8-5 ATS, will face a tough road test in Week 15 when they head to Jacksonville as 3-point road favorites to face Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (8-5) on Sunday Night Football.
While favorites possess an amazing 139-69 SU (66.8%) record this season, bettors watched eight underdogs Steelers (+5,5), Jets (+3.5), Buccaneers (+2), Broncos (+3), Bills (+2), Giants (+5.5) and Titans (+13.5) - all pull outright upsets.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have seen their AFC West lead shrink after going 2-4 over their last six games.
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Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who suffered their third loss in their last four games, scored fewer than 20 points for the sixth time this season in their home loss to Buffalo. Kansas City, who is 4-2 away from home this season, will look to bounce back in Week 15 against New England (3-10) as 9.5-point road favorites.
Bettors witnessed primetime games finish 3-1 to the over on total wagering on the week, which still leaves unders with a commanding 29-15 (56.8%) edge on the national stage. In simple wagering terms, if a bettor were to blindly wager $100 on every primetime game this season they would find a profit of $1,329.
Four-Leg Player Prop Parlay Results In Impressive Score
One bettor named @mkvii_dj on Instagram placed a $25 ‘four-player Anytime Touchdown’ parlay wager.
The investment consisted of wideouts Zay Flowers (+200) and DJ Moore (+180) as well as tight end Cade Otton (+430) and quarterback Jake Browning (+470) all finding the end zone.
Browning, the rookie signal-caller who is replacing the injured Joe Burrow, has now notched a rushing touchdown in both of his first career NFL starts.
The $25 wager at odds of +25376 returned an impressive payout of $6,344.
Last-second Game-Winning Touchdown Results In Five-Digit Parlay Hit
In Week 14, one bettor by the name of @m_cerrachio on Instagram backed two tight ends, who had combined for only three touchdowns on the season, both scoring in their matchups.
The investment involved Cincinnati’s Tanner Hudson and Tampa Bay’s Cade Otton scoring at least once in their respective matchups.
After Hudson scored his first career touchdown early in the third quarter of the Bengals 34-14 win over the Colts, the sweat commenced.
The $25 wager at odds of +40803 returned $10,200 when Otton scored the game-winner touchdown with only :32 seconds remaining in Tampa Bay’s thrilling 29-25 win over Atlanta.
Betting Landscape
In Week 14, bettors witnessed home teams go 9-6 SU and 7-7-1 ATS. On the year, home teams own a 113-90 SU (55.6%) mark, but road teams own the advantage versus the number at 102-95-6 ATS (51.8%) on the season.
*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats
Bettors watched underdogs go 8-7 SU, while also possessing the coveted edge versus the number posting a 10-4-1 ATS mark. Overall, favorites lead on the season with a 113-89-6 ATS (55.9%) edge on the year.
Games were higher scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 8-7 mark to the over on the week. On the season, unders still own a sizable lead with a mark of 117-90-1 (56.5%).
Travis Kelce laterals to Kadarius Toney for what would have been the go-ahead touchdown against the Bills. However, the play was called back after Toney was penalized for lining up offsides.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
Bad Beat
Rare “Offensive Offsides” Hands KC Bettors Bad Beat
Offsides on the offense, which has only been called 12 times the entire 2023 season, denied Kansas City bettors from a cash on Sunday.
With a little over a minute remaining in the game, and the Chiefs trailing the Bills 20-17, Patrick Mahomes connected with Travis Kelce. The veteran tight end then pitched the ball laterally to Kadarius Toney at the 22 yard line. The Chiefs speedy wideout streaked down the near sideline untouched into the end zone.
However, Toney was called for lining up offsides negating an incredible 49-yard touchdown.
The seldom called formation penalty handed Kansas City bettors the worst bad beat of Week 14.
Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks In Week 14
84% of money on Houston -3.5
- CJ Stroud and the Texans were backed heavily by bettors who were fading a reeling a Jets club going back to Zach Wilson under center. New York shocked Houston scoring 30 second half points en-route to a 30-6 upset.
79% of money on Jacksonville / Cleveland Under (37.5)
- While bettors were predicting a low-scoring affair between two strong defenses playing in windy conditions, a 37-point second half sent the game soaring over the total in the form of a Cleveland 31-27 victory.
78% of money on San Francisco -14.5
- Bettors steamed the opening line from -10.5 to -14.5 following the news that Geno Smith was unable to play due to a groin injury. However, Drew Locke helped the Seahawks stay within the largest spread of the week, falling 28-16 at Levi’s Stadium.
74% of money on Buffalo / Kansas City Over (49.5)
- Fantasy managers and sports bettors were expecting a high-scoring affair between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. However, both defenses stepped up leading to a narrow 20-17 upset win by Buffalo over Kansas City.
82% of money on Philadelphia / Dallas Over (52.5)
- Dallas held the high-powered Eagles offense without an offensive touchdown for the first time in 95 regular season games. The Cowboys dominant 33-13 win prevented the biggest backed over on the board from cashing.
88% of money on Miami -13.5
- Miami was up 14 points with just 4:34 left in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins dealt bettors a horrible beat blowing the two-touchdown lead, falling to the Titans 28-27 on Monday Night Football.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 14, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Steelers (-5) over the Patriots, Packers (-6) over NY Giants, Houston (-3.5) over NY Jets and the Saints (-6) over the Panthers.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 14 of the NFL season, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Houston and New Orleans made up over 93% of the selections in Survivor contests.
While New Orleans and Green Bay both won, many Survivor players were eliminated when New England (3-10) snapped a five-game losing streak on Thursday night upsetting the Steelers. On Sunday, the Jets pulled off the biggest upset of the day beating CJ Stroud and the Texans in Zach Wilson’s return 30-6.
Randall Cobb celebrates his touchdown reception with Allen Lazard during the Jets upset win over the Texans at MetLife Stadium in Week 14.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Look-Ahead
Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 15.
San Francisco (-13.5) at Arizona
Kansas City (-9.5) at New England (SNF)
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
