Biggest Super Bowl Odds Movement After First Round of NFL Draft Features Several Surprises

Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy.
Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY

The NFL draft never disappoints with drama and surprise. Thursday night was no different with the
Atlanta Falcons shocking the world by selecting Washington QB Michael Penix with the eighth pick just a few months after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. 

As head-jerking as that move was, however, an equally big surprise came when the Falcons’ Super Bowl odds actually went down after drafting Penix. The Falcons were +2400 to win the Super Bowl before the first round of the draft and are now +2200 on DraftKings

While that wasn’t a result of picking their presumptive quarterback of the future (not even the Washington Commanders' Super Bowl odds moved after selecting Jayden Daniels with the third pick), it was nevertheless noteworthy. 

Atlanta’s odds weren’t the only ones to change. 

The Chicago Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick and also drafted Washington WR Rome Odunze. That duo strengthens an already-loaded offense that features wide receivers Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and running back D'Andre Swift. 

Oddsmakers liked the picks as well. 

The Bears were +4500 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel before the first round and are now +4000. 

The Minnesota Vikings were the final team to see a shift in their Super Bowl odds. They traded up twice, first to pick Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and then to select Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner. As a result, their Super Bowl odds shifted from +8500 to +8000 at FanDuel

Every other team’s Super Bowl odds stayed the same before and after the first round of the draft. 

More trades could happen that could shift the odds, including what the San Francisco 49ers do with their two star wide receivers after drafting WR Ricky Pearsall from Flordia. But movement caused by drafting players has likely ended with the Bears and Vikings viewed as the biggest winners. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Brian Giuffra


Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.