MLB Best Bets: Four Plus-Money Player Props for Tonight's Guardians-Astros Matchup

Apr 30, 2024; Houston, Texas
Apr 30, 2024; Houston, Texas / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

There’s only one game on the evening slate tonight, so all eyes will be on the Houston Astros again.

The Cleveland Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and the Astros have won three of their last four, and they may be able to start digging out of their hole.

Pick a winner. Nah.   

Play some plus-money props?  Yes, indeed!  

Consider the value for these props offering plus-money payouts—all odds, according to DraftKings.

Let’s start with a strikeout prop for tonight:

Apr 24, 2024 Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti
Apr 24, 2024 Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

HOU RHP Spencer Arrighetti over 4.5  strikeouts (+105)

The Guardians have a mere 19.7% strikeout rate this season—the fifth-lowest in MLB. Just last night, Justin Verlander tossed seven innings of two-run ball but only punched out two. Righty starters are averaging just four strikeouts per game vs. Cleveland this season.  

Arrighetti has excellent stuff and generally has a high-strikeout upside with a K-rate of 12.66 per nine this year, but it’s hard to see Arrighetti going too long in this game based on his previous outings.     Arrighetti has not yet made it to the fifth inning this season. So, all of that suggests the under. But here’s why we are grabbing the over: 

Arrighetti has a K-rate of more than 15 per nine vs. left-handed hitters. Cleveland’s primary everyday lineup consists of only one right-handed hitter and two switch-hitters. The rest are lefties. That’s a very lefty-dominant lineup, and enough for me to take the risk for the payout. 

Now, onto hitting props: 

HOU Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+105)

HOU Kyle Tucker over .5 RBI (+120)

I love these props that are in plus money. Tucker has been Houston’s hottest hitter this year, with a team-leading eight home runs and 21 RBI, and he’s especially dominant when facing lefties.   

Tucker is tied for second in MLB in extra-base hits vs. southpaws (eight), and he has the third-most RBI (11). He’s hitting .341 vs. lefties this year with a 1.147 OPS. 

That should play well vs. Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, who has an ERA of 5.46 this season and has allowed an average exit velocity in the bottom 14% of the league. 

José Ramírez over .5 RBI (+125)

Apr 26, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a
Apr 26, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Ramírez hasn’t had a hit yet in this Houston series, so you know what that means: He’s due. Seriously, though.  

Ramírez will likely bat righty tonight vs. Arighetti, and he has 17 RBI vs. right-handed pitchers this season (tied for seventh in MLB). At +125, I like the value. 

One last thing: I’m willing to grab the over on this game tonight, which is currently set at nine. Not only do the Astros punish lefties, but Arrighetti has an ERA of 10.97 this season. Sure, it should be better, but an xERA of 4.36, according to Statcast, still bodes well for the over when you consider how well the Guardians hit with RISP and how volatile Houston’s bullpen is this year. Both teams should get in their knocks tonight. 

The Bets:

Arrighetti over 4.5K (+105)

Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Kyle Tucker over .5 RBI (+120)

Jose Ramirez over .5 RBI (+125)

Game total: Over 9 (-115)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.


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Jennifer Piacenti

JENNIFER PIACENTI

In addition to being a fantasy sports and betting analyst at Sports Illustrated, Jennifer is a radio host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and she hosts her own podcast, “Waiver Wired” on the Extra Points podcast network. Jennifer has been nominated for multiple FSWA awards for her NFL DFS video series. She’s a Scott Fish Bowl Finalist, and she finished third overall in the 2021 NFFC post-season mini. Jennifer is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye,” and a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts.