2026 MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team (D-Backs, Cubs Rise in NL Wild Card; Red Sox Continue Surge)

The end of July and the MLB trade deadline are approaching, and many teams have a decision to make on whether they should buy or sell to give themselves a shot at the postseason.

The latest betting odds and FanGraph’s playoff probabilities help give a glimpse into which teams are in the best position to make the postseason, but a lot can change with multiple months left in the regular season.

There are some extremely important matchups on Monday, including the series finale between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners as they battle for the top spot in the AL West.

The SI Betting team has you covered with picks for those games, as well as a breakdown of the latest playoff odds movement with Boston, Arizona and Chicago all surging – and holding down wild card spots – ahead of the trade deadline.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2026 American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: -10000
Chicago White Sox: -160
Texas Rangers: -155

The Rays, White Sox and Rangers have all seen their playoff odds remain pretty steady over the weekend, though Chicago did fall from -180 to -160.

Tampa Bay now has a three-game lead on New York in the AL East, and it is now favored by FanGraphs in the odds to win the division. Tampa Bay should claim the top spot in the AL if it ends up winning the division since both Chicago and Texas are fighting to stay over .500 this season.

AL Wild Card Race

New York Yankees: -5000
Boston Red Sox: -235
Seattle Mariners: -145
Cleveland Guardians: -115
Houston Astros: +195
Minnesota Twins: +225
Baltimore Orioles: +330
Detroit Tigers: +330
Toronto Blue Jays: +650
Athletics: +2500
Los Angeles Angels: +3000
Kansas City Royals: +3000

The Red Sox have continued to surge in the standings, and they have a 1.5-game cushion on the No. 2 wild card spot in the American League.

FanGraphs now has Boston at a 70.3 percent chance to make the playoffs, and it’s gone from -180 to -235 to make the playoffs at DraftKings.

Seattle (-190 to -145) and Cleveland (-215 to -115) have seen their playoff odds drop considerably in the last week, and both teams remain in second in their respective divisions.

It seems like Boston, New York and one of Texas/Seattle or Cleveland/Chicago) will earn a wild card spot, as Houston (+195), Baltimore (+330) and Minnesota (+225) are all long shots in the latest odds.

2026 National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Milwaukee Brewers: -20000
Los Angeles Dodgers: -20000
Atlanta Braves: -5000

Nothing has changed in terms of the division leaders in the National League, as the Braves (5.5-game lead over Philly) currently have the shortest lead atop a National League division. The Dodgers have taken a half-game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the NL, and that should be a fun race down the stretch of the regular season.

NL Wild Card Race

Chicago Cubs: -900
Philadelphia Phillies: -575
Arizona Diamondbacks: +135
Pittsburgh Pirates: +205
San Diego Padres: +230
St. Louis Cardinals: +550
Washington Nationals: +800
Miami Marlins: +1000
Cincinnati Reds: +1800
San Francisco Giants: +2800
New York Mets: +2800
Colorado Rockies: +5000

The National League wild card race is insane.

The Miami Marlins (three games out of the final spot) have seen their odds crash from +500 to +1000 to earn a wild card spot after losing their last 12 games, and that’s opened the door a bit for the Cincinnati Reds (+1800) to make a run at this final spot.

FanGraphs currently projects the Phillies, Cubs and Pirates as the three most-likely wild card teams while the D-Backs are fourth. Arizona has gone from +140 to +135 to earn a playoff spot, and it has a massive series against Pittsburgh this week. The Pirates are just one game back of the D-Backs heading into Game 1 of their series on Monday.

The Cubs may be the biggest winner in the NL wild card race this week, as they went from -650 and behind the Phillies in the odds to -900 with a 2.5-game cushion over Philadelphia. Both of those teams are in a great position to earn a wild card berth, though Philly has just a three-game lead on Pittsburgh and Washington after losing a weekend series with the Yankees.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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