2026 MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team (Detroit, San Diego Moving Up; Tampa Bay Running Away With AL)

A new week in Major League Baseball means a bunch of new series are set to kick off, making it the perfect time to take a look at the latest playoff odds.

A lot can change over just a few days of MLB action, even though seven teams currently have better than a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs.

Each week for the rest of the 2026 season, the SI Betting team will examine the MLB playoff odds to help recap the last week of action and give some insight into which teams may be undervalued in their odds to make the postseason.

After the last week of action, the San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers have emerged as two teams in the chasing pack in the wild card race that could end up making the postseason and are currently set at plus money to do so.

Plus, there are some interesting odds when it comes to the AL West division race, which remains the tightest in baseball with less than two months to play.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2026 American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: -20000
Chicago White Sox: -200
Houston Astros: -150

Tampa Bay is running away with the American League with less than two months left in the regular season, as it has a 5.5-game cushion over the New York Yankees for the best record in the AL. Even the red hot Boston Red Sox have lost two games in a row, dropping them to seven games back of the Rays.

Oddsmakers have shifted Tampa Bay from -10000 to -20000 to make the playoffs over the last week, and FanGraphs has given the Rays a 8.6 percent chance to win the World Series (fourth- best mark in MLB) and a 74.8 percent chance to win the division. The Rays are fifth in the odds at DraftKings to win the World Series, and there could be some value there if it ends up with home field through the AL portion of the postseason.

In the AL Central, a ho-hum 5-5 record over the last 10 games has given Chicago a 3.5-game cushion over the surging Tigers. Detroit has a better run differential (plus-87) than the White Sox (plus-37), but FanGraphs still gives Chicago the best chance to win this division at 39.9 percent. Oddsmakers moved the White Sox from -205 to -200 to make the playoffs, though it appears the sentiment around them remains the same.

Out West, there are still three teams that could win the division or end up in a wild card spot. Right now, Houston has a 0.5 game lead over the Texas Rangers and a four-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the division crown. But, the Astros are just one game over .500 this season.

So, no team in the AL West has been all that impressive even though Houston (+2000 to win the World Series) and Texas (+2200 to win the World Series) are both ahead of Chicago in the odds to win it all.

FanGraphs gives the Astros a 54.1 percent chance to make the playoffs in 2026, which is worse than Texas (55.9 percent). In fact, Houston is -105 to win the division at DraftKings, but FanGraphs has it with a lower percentage to do so than Texas, which is set at +160.

There could be some betting value there, though both of these teams have easy schedules remaining. Houston is 28th in remaining schedule strength while the Rangers clock in at 27th.

AL Wild Card Race

New York Yankees: -10000
Boston Red Sox: -2000
Texas Rangers: -120
Detroit Tigers: +200
Cleveland Guardians: +230
Seattle Mariners: +310
Minnesota Twins: +310
Baltimore Orioles: +425
Toronto Blue Jays: +550
Athletics: +3500
Los Angeles Angels: +3500
Kansas City Royals: +3500

The AL wild card race is mainly a race for the final spot, as New York has a seven-game cushion over the field and the Red Sox have a 5.5-game cushion. Both teams saw their playoff odds rise over the last week, as New York went from -5000 to -10000 and Boston jumped from -700 to -2000 despite back-to-back losses over the weekend.

Both teams are still well behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, so it’s likely they’ll end up facing off as the No. 1 and No. 2 wild card teams in the AL.

After that, it’s a mad house for the third and final playoff spot in the American League.

Texas currently holds that spot with a one-game lead over Detroit, and it is favored to make the playoffs at FanGraphs (as I mentioned above). However, there is a sizable chasing back with Detroit (one game back), Minnesota (1.5 games back), Cleveland (1.5 games back) and Baltimore (two games back) all in the mix.

Seattle also remains in the hunt, but it has seen its playoff odds drop from +130 to +310 over the last week. The Mariners have lost four games in a row, and they currently have just a 31.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs.

Detroit is the team to watch in the AL playoff race, as it has an impressive run differential (plus-87) and has stayed afloat despite trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline. The Tigers do have one thing working against them, as five teams that could be in the wild card hunt (Texas, Houston, Cleveland, Chicago and Seattle) have the five easiest schedules remaining in the 2026 regular season. Detroit clocks in at 15th.

Still, the Tigers have gone from +475 to +200 to make the playoffs over the last week, and they remain in the mix to win the AL Central. They are a team I’d be buying at 2/1 odds, even though FanGraphs gives them just a 32.3 percent chance to make the postseason.

2026 National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Milwaukee Brewers: -20000
Los Angeles Dodgers: -20000
Atlanta Braves: -20000

Milwaukee, Atlanta and Los Angeles remain in the driver’s seat to win their respective divisions, even with the Dodgers enduring a seven-game losing streak last week.

Milwaukee actually has the smallest lead atop a division in the National League despite having the best record in MLB while the Braves have passed the Dodgers for the second-best record in the NL.

Los Angeles is still the clear favorite to win the World Series (+160), and all three of these teams have a 99.7 percent chance or better to make the playoffs at FanGraphs. They also make up three of the top four teams in the World Series odds – Milwaukee is +950 and Atlanta is +1000 – as the New York Yankees are the only American League team (+750) in that group.

The interesting thing to watch amongst these teams is the race for the No. 1 seed, especially now that Atlanta has jumped the Dodgers. L.A. has lost eight of nine games to fall to No. 3 in the NL, and it has fallen behind the Brewers in run differential.

NL Wild Card Race

Chicago Cubs: -10000
Philadelphia Phillies: -340
Arizona Diamondbacks: -140
San Diego Padres: +120
Miami Marlins: +700
St. Louis Cardinals: +950
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1200
Cincinnati Reds: +1800
Washington Nationals: +2500
San Francisco Giants: +3500
New York Mets: +3500
Colorado Rockies: +5000

The biggest winner in the NL wild card race is easily the Chicago Cubs, as they have a six-game cushion on the field and jumped from -1400 to -10000 to make the playoffs over the last week.

Chicago is still in the mix to win the NL Central (5.5 games back of Milwaukee), and FanGraphs has given it a 98.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

After the Cubs, things get a lot more interesting.

Arizona and Philadelphia are tied for the No. 2 wild card spot at 63-56, and they are both favored to secure those wild cards in the latest playoff odds. Philadelphia sits at -340 to make the postseason while Arizona clocks in at -140 after taking Sunday’s series finale against the Dodgers.

The only team that really has a chance (according to the odds) to catch these teams is the San Diego Padres, who remain just one game out of the final wild card spot. San Diego’s offense has come on over the last 30 days, ranking in the top 10 in the league in OPS, runs scored and batting average. On top of that, the Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games, keeping them just a game back of the No. 2 wild card spot.

San Diego’s odds to make the playoffs only went from +135 to +120 over the last week, but FanGraphs gives it a 41.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, by far the best odds of any team in the chasing pack.

After the Padres, several teams have fallen in the odds over the last week, with only the Miami Marlins (who fell from +340 to +700) sitting three games back. Every other team is at least 3.5 games behind Arizona and Philadelphia, and Miami is the only team at FanGraphs with better than a 10 percent chance to make the postseason.

Here’s some of the odds movement for this NL wild card contenders:

Miami: +340 to +700
Pittsburgh: +500 to +1200
Washington: +1800 to +2500

The St. Louis Cardinals (3.5 games back) did see their odds improve from +1200 to +950 over the last week, but they remain a long shot at this point in the season. There’s certainly a chance that the top three wild card teams change in the NL with San Diego lurking, but this could end up being a three-team race for two spots as we near September.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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