2026 MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team (Astros, White Sox, Cubs All Rising Ahead of Trade Deadline)

One of the biggest days in the 2026 MLB season is upon us, as the MLB trade deadline is set for 6 p.m. EST on Aug. 3.

The biggest domino of the deadline has already fallen, as two-time Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal was sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night, putting the team in a great position to three-peat as the World Series champions.

The Dodgers were already heavily favored to win the NL West, but they’re not the only contender that has made a move ahead of Monday’s deadline. Tampa Bay added Freddy Peralta, Chicago added Kevin Gausman and the New York Yankees made a move to fix their lineup by trading for Luis Garcia.

There’s a pretty clear top group in the odds to win the World Series, but that could change if a team pulls off a major deal before today’s deadline.

When it comes to the playoff odds, there has been a ton of change in just one week. The American League has a new division leader in the NL West, while the Cubs have emerged as the clear No. 1 wild card in the National League.

Here’s a look at where every team stands in the playoff picture, and some of the latest odds movement, ahead of Monday’s deadline.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2026 American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: -10000
Chicago White Sox: -205
Houston Astros: -165

We have a new division leader in the American League, as a six-game winning streak has given the Houston Astros a 2.5-game cushion over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Houston was +195 to make the playoffs a week ago, but it suddenly is favored to do so and could be a buyer at Monday’s deadline.

In the AL Central, the White Sox have opened up a three-game lead on Cleveland and made a win-now move, adding former All-Star Luis Castillo at the trade deadline. Chicago went from -160 to -205 to make the postseason and has a 43 percent chance to win the division, per FanGraphs.

The AL East remains the division to watch in the American League, as three of the teams (Tampa Bay, New York and Boston) are in the top six in the odds to win the World Series. Tampa Bay remains the odds-on favorite to win the division, and it bolstered its rotation by trading for Freddy Peralta on Sunday. Still, New York (2.5 games back) and Boston (five games back) are within striking distance and also are heavily favored to make the playoffs.

AL Wild Card Race

New York Yankees: -5000
Boston Red Sox: -700
Cleveland Guardians: +110
Seattle Mariners: +130
Texas Rangers: +140
Minnesota Twins: +265
Baltimore Orioles: +425
Detroit Tigers: +475
Toronto Blue Jays: +800
Athletics: +3500
Los Angeles Angels: +3500
Kansas City Royals: +3500

Boston remains the talk of Major League Baseball after a 21-4 record in July, and it kept things going with a sweep of the defending champion Dodgers over the weekend. The Sox are now just five games out of first in the AL East, and their playoff odds have skyrocketed from -235 to -700 over the last week. Boston is also sixth in the odds to win the World Series, a shocking turn of events after the team was in last place in the division for most of the first few months of the campaign.

FanGraphs now has Boston at a 85.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, up from 70.3 percent last week.

Only five teams in the AL are favored to make the playoffs, as the race for the final wild card spot is shaping up to be a wild one. Texas, Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota and Baltimore all have cases to earn the final spot, but the Guardians (57-56) are the only team in that group that is over .500. It’s worth noting that Minnesota (+225 to +265), Detroit (traded away Tarik Skubal) and Toronto (+650 to +800) all have fallen back quite a bit in the odds since last Monday. Those teams were all fringe playoff contenders last week, though the Twins are just one game out despite a sub-.500 record.

If some of these teams make a move at the deadline, it could clear up the picture in terms of who is truly going for a playoff spot. For now, it appears that two of the Yankees, Red Sox or potentially Rays will occupy the top wild card spots.

2026 National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Milwaukee Brewers: -20000
Los Angeles Dodgers: -20000
Atlanta Braves: -10000

Nothing has changed once again with these three division leaders all running away with their respective races, though the Braves did improve from -5000 to -10000 to make the playoffs. Atlanta and Milwaukee may need to make moves at the deadline to compete with the Dodgers after the Skubal blockbuster moved L.A. to +150 to win the World Series.

NL Wild Card Race

Chicago Cubs: -1400
Philadelphia Phillies: -320
Arizona Diamondbacks: -110
San Diego Padres: +135
Miami Marlins: +340
Pittsburgh Pirates: +500
St. Louis Cardinals: +1200
Washington Nationals: +1800
Cincinnati Reds: +2200
San Francisco Giants: +3500
New York Mets: +3500
Colorado Rockies: +5000

The National League wild card race still has a ton of teams in the mix, but the Chicago Cubs (four games up on the No. 2 spot) have separated themselves, moving their playoff odds from -900 to -1400 in the process.

After that, it gets dicey, as just 3.5 games separate the next five teams, and the Philadelphia Phillies (-575 to -320) and Arizona Diamondbacks (+135 to -110) are tied in the standings ahead of the deadline.

Washington (4.5 games back) is selling at the deadline after trading Garcia to New York, and it has lost five games in a row. But, the Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres all have cases to make the postseason, especially if they don’t trade away some of their top talent on Monday.

Miami (+1000 to +340) has seen the biggest change in its odds to make the playoffs after it shook off a long losing streak in July. It has won three games in a row and is just 1.5 games back of the second wild card spot.

Pittsburgh has taken a major hit, dropping from +205 to +500 to make the playoffs, and it is now 3.5 games out of the second wild card spot. The Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are all still in the mix in the NL Central, though it’s highly unlikely that four teams from that division would end up in the playoffs (Milwaukee and Chicago are heavily favored to make it already).

As of Monday morning, FanGraphs projects that the Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks will end up securing the final playoff spots with the Padres (30 percent) sitting with the fourth-best odds.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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