2026 NBA Finals Predictions and Picks (Bet on Nuggets, Celtics Before Start of NBA Playoffs)

After an exciting week of play-in tournament games, the NBA finally turns its focus to the first-round playoff matchups, making this one of the best teams to bet on some NBA futures – specifically who is going to win the NBA title.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to become the first repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, and they’re the clear favorite in the odds to win the title.

When it comes to betting on the NBA Finals, there are two things that I like to consider:

First off, there is a trend that has stood for almost 30 years in the NBA, and it helps narrow down the group of teams that I’m willing to bet on to win it all. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that went on to win the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

The eight teams for the 2025-26 season:

1. OKC
2. Pistons
3. Spurs
4. Celtics
5. Knicks
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Hornets
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 13, 2026

Secondly, I don’t want to bet on a team – like OKC – that is sitting at close to even money or even minus odds to win the title. There is essentially no value at this point in the season, and you’re basically banking on that team alone to win to turn a profit.

As the playoffs go on, it’s likely that teams like Oklahoma City, Boston, Denver and San Antonio are going to see their odds get even shorter, meaning that the best time to bet on them may be before the Game 1 action on Saturday.

Let’s dive into the odds and a few teams that I’d bet on to win it all ahead of the playoffs.

NBA Finals Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder: +110
San Antonio Spurs: +500
Boston Celtics: +550
Denver Nuggets: +850
Cleveland Cavaliers: +1700
New York Knicks: +1800
Detroit Pistons: +2200
Houston Rockets: +8000
Minnesota Timberwolves: +10000
Atlanta Hawks: +13000
Los Angeles Lakers: +15000
Philadelphia 76ers: +17000
Orlando Magic: +30000
Toronto Raptors: +35000
Phoenix Suns: +50000
Portland Trail Blazers: +70000

Denver Nuggets (+850)

The most important Denver Nuggets stat this season doesn’t involve Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. It’s the fact that Denver was 27-9 when Aaron Gordon was in the lineup and just 27-19 when he was out.

Now that Gordon appears to be healthy, I’m taking this Denver team to make a deep postseason run, even if it has to go through Minnesota, San Antonio and OKC to make the Finals.

The Nuggets have a net rating of +19.9 when Gordon, Murray and Jokic are on the floor this season, and their defense is better when Gordon plays despite being 21st in the NBA for the entire season.

Jokic is still the best player in the world, and Denver has a ton of playoff experience compared to the Spurs if that ends up being a second-round matchup. At +850, there’s some serious value in Denver after it took OKC to seven games in the 2025 NBA Playoffs with multiple injured starters.

Boston Celtics (+550)

Boston was not on the radar as a potential NBA Finals team before the season, but Jaylen Brown and Joe Mazzulla refused to let this team give in, earning the No. 2 seed in the East despite Jayson Tatum missing most of the season.

With Tatum back in the fold, Boston is extremely dangerous as a team that was in the top five in the NBA in offensive, defensive and net rating during the regular season.

Out of the top-four seeds in the East, Boston has the most playoff experience and arguably the two best players in the conference. If you think the C’s can get past the New York Knicks (if they make it there) in the second round of the playoffs, they’re a great bet to at least make the NBA Finals.

New York Knicks (+1800)

I have a similar line of thinking for the Knicks as I do Boston.

New York finished in the top seven in the league in offensive, defensive and net rating, and it’s coming off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance last season. There are a lot of experienced veterans on this Knicks team, and New York is No. 3 in the NBA in clutch-time offense with one of the best closers (Jalen Brunson) in the NBA.

I think a Boston-New York second-round matchup is the true Eastern Conference Finals, and that the winner will end up in the NBA Finals this season. So, at +1800, New York is worth a look as one of the eight teams in the league that fits the historical trend of Finals winners.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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