2026 U.S. Open Score Predictions: Winning Total Pick at Shinnecock

The last time a men's major golf tournament was won with a score of over par, it was the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock.

The U.S. Open returns to that course for the first time since, which means we could be in for chaos this week.

I've already given you my best bets to win this week, but in this article, I'm not only going to predict the winning score, but I'm going to predict the exact final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list. Let's dive into it.

U.S. Open Score Predictions

All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

U.S. Open Winning Score: -4

Let's be honest, the USGA has been a bit afraid to set up their courses as difficult as they did in 2018 after claims by players that they "lost the course." They've already widened the fairways at Shinnecock this week, so I'm confident in saying we won't get a winning score over par this time around. I think the course playing five strokes easier makes a ton of sense. That lines up with the total that DraftKings has set for the winning score at 277.5.

Scottie Scheffler (+455) Score Prediction: -2

Scottie Scheffler is going to be flirting with the top of the leaderboard on the weekend, but we're going to see a familiar result from him when the final putt drops on Sunday. Since his win in January, Scheffler continues to post top-10 finishes, but he can't get back in the winner's circle. There's nothing in his recent starts that makes me think he's going to complete the grand slam this week. An underwhelming T12 finish at The Memorial Tournament is a bad sign for Scheffler faithfuls.

Rory McIlroy (+940) Score Prediction: E

My biggest concern with Rory McIlroy heading into this week is the lack of competitive reps. He has played in just three events since winning the Masters in April, and he didn't finish inside the top five in any of them. His 2026 form is still good enough to finish around the top 10, but I don't think he'll be in the mix on the back nine on Sunday.

Jon Rahm (+1175) Score Prediction: -3

Jon Rahm's T2 finish at the PGA Championship is promising, but I'm not quite ready to pick him to win another major. I think another runner-up finish is in his future this weekend.

Xander Schauffele (+1850) Score Prediction: -4

As I wrote about in my betting preview, Xander Schauffele is my best bet to win this week; therefore, I have him coming in at the winning score of -4. He continues to contend at the U.S. Open every year, so it's only a matter of time before things break his way and he wins his third career major. It's also worth noting he finished T6 here in 2018.

Cameron Young (+1900) Score Prediction: +2

Cameron Young would've been one of my top picks a few months ago, but his recent form is concerning. He's coming off a T26 at the PGA Championship and a T46 at The Memorial Tournament. Shinnecock isn't the place to find your form.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2250) Score Prediction: +6

Matt Fitzpatrick's 2026 resume isn't as impressive once you look a bit deeper into his three wins. The three victories came in a signature event that he's won before, a non-signature event with a weak field, and a team event that had virtually no other top golfers competing in. When it comes to top-tier events, he has failed to live up to expectations, including finishing outside the top 10 at both majors and posting finishes of T52 and T36 at the Truist Championship and The Memorial Tournament.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2250) Score Prediction: +5

It's time for us to stop thinking Tommy Fleetwood is going to truly contend for a major championship. A win at the Tour Championship with 30 golfers in the field isn't enough for me to look past his long history of failing to live up to expectations. Even if he's in the mix on the weekend, he'll implode on Sunday.

Ludvig Aberg (+2600) Score Prediction: E

Ludvig Aberg has run into some trouble lately when it comes to his play around the greens, which could end up costing him at Shinnecock, where scrambling to save par is going to be paramount. He's also been wayward off the tee lately, which is a death sentence at this course. A 39th-place finish at The Memorial Tournament in his last start is also extremely concerning.

Brooks Koepka (+3200) Score Prediction: Missed Cut

Brooks Koepka returns to the course he won at in 2018, but he has some red flags this week, mainly an injury that caused him to withdraw from last week's Canadian Open. Additionally, his lack of short game has cost him lately, and if he doesn't fix that in a hurry, he's going to struggle to save par in pivotal moments.

Bryson DeChambeau (+3300) Score Prediction: Missed Cut

Bryson DeChambeau has missed the cut at both majors in 2026, and I don't see that changing this week. A lack of creativity with his irons is going to hurt him at a course like Shinnecock, and if he's wayward off the tee, it doesn't matter how far he can drive the golf ball. He needs to put his YouTube channel on the back burner if he wants to get back to contending at major tournaments.

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