Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship

UPDATE: A'ja Wilson has been RULED OUT for the Commissioner's Cup Championship Game. The picks in this story were made before Wilson was ruled out, including the prop for her to record a double-double.

The Liberty have gone from 2.5-point favorites to 5.5-point favorites in the latest odds at DraftKings and are -218 to win this game outright.

A WNBA Commissioner’s Cup champion will be crowned on Tuesday night, as the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty square off for the second time in Commissioner’s Cup history.

The winner will be the first two-time Commissioner’s Cup champ, though the Minnesota Lynx (2024) and Indiana Fever (2025) took home the title the last two years. New York beat Las Vegas in their lone Commissioner’s Cup meeting in 2023, preventing A’ja Wilson and company from repeating in the cup after they won in 2022.

This season, the Aces are looking to defend their WNBA title, and they’ve gotten off to a solid start, winning 14 of their last 19 games. One of their five losses came at the hands of the Liberty back on June 23, but New York is coming off a loss to Golden State on Sunday.

Satou Sabally (concussion protocol) missed that game, and the Liberty forward is listed as out on Tuesday night.

New York is favored with this game being at home, but the 2.5-point spread suggests this is a pretty even matchup. The Aces have also been elite on the road in 2026, winning nine of their 11 games.

Here’s a full breakdown of this Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game, including the latest odds, injuries, player props to consider and my prediction.

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Aces +2.5 (-115)
Liberty -2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Aces: +114
Liberty: -135

Total

174.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 30
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Aces record: 14-5
Liberty record: 12-8

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

Dana Evans – out
A'ja Wilson – questionable
Janiah Barker – out

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally – out

Aces vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

A’ja Wilson to Record a Double-Double (-146)

This season, Wilson has nine double-doubles in 19 games, and she dropped 30 points and 15 rebounds in Sunday’s win over the Chicago Sky.

While Wilson’s rebounding is down a bit this season – she’s averaging 9.4 rebounds per game – the four-time league MVP has scored at least 16 points in every game. So, bettors really are betting on her grabbing 10 or more boards in this matchup.

The double-double price (-146) is more favorable than taking Wilson to grab 10 rebounds since her rebounds-only prop is set at 10.5 on Tuesday. I’ll take the league’s best player to have a big showing against New York, even though the Liberty held her to 16 points and nine boards in their meeting earlier this month.

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Aces are the side to take in this Commissioner’s Cup final:

New York has been shaky as of late, losing on the road to the Golden State Valkyries on Sunday for its fourth loss in five games. The Liberty dropped games against Washington, Los Angeles and Seattle during that stretch, and they’ve dropped to 12-8 overall this season.

Even though New York won the lone meeting between these teams, it came with Wilson having one of her worst games of the season (16 points on 7-of-18 shooting). The four-time league MVP is averaging over 25 points per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field.

I don’t think there’s a major gap between these teams, so I don’t mind taking the points in this Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game.

Las Vegas is 7-4 against the spread on the road this season, and it’s right behind the Liberty in net rating (plus-5.4 vs. plus-5.2).

New York is just two games over .500 at home, and it has some really confusing losses to teams like Seattle, Portland and others in 2026. I think the Aces’ offense (No. 1 in offensive rating) is good enough to at least keep this game close on Tuesday night.

Pick: Aces +2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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