Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Sunday, Aug. 9

A marquee matchup kicks off Sunday’s WNBA action, as the Las Vegas Aces hit the road to play Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty at 12:30 p.m. EST.

This is the fourth time that these teams will face off in 2026, as they met in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship game back on June 30 to add another appearance to their three regular season contests. New York has won two of the first three meetings, but the Aces won back on July 30 to give themselves a chance to even the season series.

However, Las Vegas may end up being short-handed on Sunday afternoon. Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson are all listed as questionable for this game due to rest. As a result, oddsmakers have set the Liberty as 9.5-point favorites at home, a sign that all three players will likely sit for the Aces.

The Liberty are the No. 8 seed in the W entering this game, but they have won three games in a row. It’s possible Las Vegas is punting this game because it has fallen to third in the standings and may not be able to catch the Minnesota Lynx after losing them on Saturday.

There’s a chance this could be a first-round matchup in the playoffs, especially if the Liberty are able to move up to the No. 7 or No. 6 spot by the end of the regular season.

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Sunday’s interconference showdown.

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Aces +9.5 (-118)
Liberty -9.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Aces: +300
Liberty: -380

Total

179.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Aces vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Aug. 9
Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Aces record: 22-10
Liberty record: 19-13

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

Justine Pissott – questionable
Jackie Young – questionable
Chelsea Gray – questionable
A’ja Wilson – questionable

Liberty Injury Report

Leonie Fiebich – out
Satou Sabally – out

Aces vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart 8+ Rebounds (-180)

This season, Liberty star Breanna Stewart is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game, and I love this matchup for her on Sunday – especially if Wilson sits.

The Aces are just seventh in the W in rebound percentage and eighth in opponent rebounds per game, and that would likely take a hit if the reigning league MVP is out of the lineup.

Stewie had 11 rebounds the last time these teams played, and she’s picked up eight or more boards in nine of her last 11 matchups (including four in a row). Overall, she’s pulled down eight or more rebounds in 22 of her 31 regular-season appearances in 2026.

I’m expecting her to have a big game as New York aims to win a fourth matchup in a row.

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Two of the three meetings between these teams have fallen short of 180 points, including the Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game in New York.

While the last meeting between these teams was a 104-99 win for the Aces, they are in a tough spot on Sunday. Not only is this a back-to-back for Las Vegas, but it had to travel from Minnesota to New York after a 1 p.m. EST game on Saturday. So, it makes sense that the team is debating resting its three best players rather than risk any injuries in this game.

If Wilson, Gray and Young do sit, the Aces are going to have a hard time replicating their offensive play so far this season (No. 3 in offensive rating) against a Liberty team that is starting to turn things around with the playoffs approaching.

Laying 9.5 points with the Liberty is risky if any of the Aces stars end up playing, so instead I’m going to take the UNDER.

The Liberty have hit the UNDER in 10 of their 15 home games this season, and both of these teams rank in the bottom half in the WNBA in pace this season.

This should be a low-scoring game if the Aces are short-handed on Sunday.

Pick: UNDER 179.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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